I think Madame Babineaux Blanco is still testing the winds.
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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
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Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
How big is Dean compared to most hurricanes?
I just looked at the water vapor. That looks like one powerful eye.
Bail-out boxes get packed tomorrow.
Vehicles already fueled.
Canned stuff, H2O, etc. stocked.
Generator check, oil change, & fresh fuel tomorrow.
Hoping the above is for nothing.
Earlier today UKMET had it hitting here. Now GFDL does.
Shame we kaint send the water to Florida, Tennessee, or west where it’s needed...we’re already WAY over for this time of year.
Someday I’ll tire of this fire-drill and move inland into a bunker or something....
I think Madame Babineaux Blanco is still testing the winds.
I understand. I didn’t rebuild in Alabama. It was just too much after Ivan.
I did get a place down in Jupiter, Fla.
Plan to do something later on about Dauphin Island. I’ll probably always keep the land, as long as they are willing to replace it after each hurricane, but I’ve quit building my house on sinking sand. :)
I just know, this time, if there are any major evacuations, I won’t be available to volunteer.
Pray for Jamaica.
11 o’clock updates are starting with the forecast/advisory. Borderline Cat 5 by this time tomorrow, clip the Yucatan, and then come across near the border as a Cat 3 Wednesday evening (the last is at the ragged edge of the prediction).
Pray for those in this storm's path.
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 17, 2007
...Category four Dean intensifying over the eastern Caribbean... At 11 PM AST...a Hurricane Warning is issued for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti...from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince...and a Tropical Storm Warning is issued from Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti/Dominican Republic border. At 11 PM AST...the Hurricane Warning for Guadeloupe and its dependencies has been discontinued...and all tropical storm warnings have been discontinued for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles...Montserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda...and Anguilla. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the British Virgin Islands....U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. These warnings will likely be discontinued on Saturday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including western Cuba...the Cayman Islands...and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of Dean. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 14.9 north...longitude 65.9 west or about 755 miles... 1210 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 240 miles... 390 km...south of San Juan Puerto Rico. Dean is moving toward the west near 18 mph...30 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will be moving well south of Puerto Rico tonight and south of the Dominican Republic early Saturday. Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km. The minimum central pressure just reported by the aircraft was 937 mb...27.67 inches. Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from Dean over Puerto Rico...the Dominican Republic and Haiti with maximum amounts up to 5 inches possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides repeating the 1100 PM AST position...14.9 N...65.9 W. Movement toward...west near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure...937 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500 am AST. $$ Forecaster Knabb
ROFLOL. I wouldn’t doubt it. If she’s like most Democrats, she’s probably thinking a pretty fair wind is blowing her way. :)
All other models take the system well into the Yucatan.
Pray those are right.
Lol! I have often wondered about her IQ.
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Oh my goodness. I think I’ll sign off now and pray.
Lord I pray, please keep and protect the people in the path of this hurricane. May they weather the storm and live to see another day.
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2007
Dean has been steadily intensifying tonight. The U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft recently measured maximum flight-level winds of 138 kt...corresponding to about 124 kt at the surface. In addition...the aircraft is equipped with the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer which measured winds as strong as 123 kt this evening. Not surprisingly...the central pressure has been dropping...with the latest aircraft measurement being 937 mb. The advisory intensity is set to 125 kt...which is also consistent with Dvorak intensity estimates. The aircraft data also indicate the storm has become a good bit larger...and wind radii have been expanded in all quadrants. Dean might also have a close encounter with NOAA buoy 42059...less than 100 N mi directly ahead of the center of the hurricane...in a few hours. The initial motion estimate is 275/16...just a little slower than before. The overall track forecast reasoning has not changed...and the models are in good agreement through 72 hours on a track toward the northwestern Caribbean. Thereafter...the models notably disagree and have generally shifted a bit to the south...including the northern outlying GFDL. The official forecast...however...has not changed noticeably...since the models might shift back the other way. The significant spread in the models at days four and five is indicative of the large uncertainties typical of those longer forecast ranges. The NHC wind speed probability text and graphical products included in this advisory package also refect these uncertainties. The chances of tropical storm force winds are similar at each location along the entire western and northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico...and it is too early to differentiate the risk of hurricane force winds between any of these locations. The future intensity of Dean...given the weak shear and warm waters ahead...will likely be controlled by internal structural changes and/or brief interactions with land. The official forecast keeps the current intensity through 72 hours...and is only lowered on days 4 and 5 due to potential passage over Yucatan. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 18/0300z 14.9n 65.9w 125 kt 12hr VT 18/1200z 15.5n 68.4w 130 kt 24hr VT 19/0000z 16.4n 71.7w 135 kt 36hr VT 19/1200z 17.3n 75.0w 135 kt 48hr VT 20/0000z 18.2n 78.4w 135 kt 72hr VT 21/0000z 20.0n 85.5w 140 kt 96hr VT 22/0000z 22.5n 91.5w 110 kt...inland 120hr VT 23/0000z 25.0n 97.5w 110 kt $$ forecaster Knabb
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