Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]

NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

[steveegg]

Wow. It really intensified this evening.

And we're not done measuring yet. The Hunters should be in there another couple passes. In fact, the next one should be up inside a half-hour.

[steveegg]

I need to preview. That should have read -

The next vortex data message should be up in about a half hour.

[Moonman62]

The winds could be 160 by the time it gets to Jamaica. The best they can hope for is an eyewall replacement to soft it up just a bit. Other than that there is no shear or landmass to stop it from getting stronger.

[NautiNurse]

Buoy 42059 directly in the path of Hurricane Dean:

[steveegg]

What are the odds that Buoy 42059 survives this one?

[SouthTexas]

This little guy?

[NautiNurse]

Nearly nil, based on buoys lost in the GOM in 2005.

[steveegg]

The tiny buoy was tossed.
Because there was no work or a fearless crew
Buoy 42059 will probably be lost.

[steveegg]

We ought to start a pool on when we lose it.

[SouthTexas]

LOL Here's another right behind it, almost looks like an escape pod!

[AGreatPer]

My daughter, son-in-law were in the Hugho one on Cancun. Had to tie themselves to the plumbing from being sucked out the windows. At that time they had absolutely no warning.

[steveegg]

Yowch.

[AGreatPer]

They knew they were in trouble when the sofa got sucked out of their 6th story glass door.

[steveegg]

Correction on the forecast position/max winds (removed "inland" indicator for the 96-hour forecast position, added "near coast of Mexico" to the 120-hour forecast position)

Forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      18/0300z 14.9n  65.9w   125 kt
 12hr VT     18/1200z 15.5n  68.4w   130 kt
 24hr VT     19/0000z 16.4n  71.7w   135 kt
 36hr VT     19/1200z 17.3n  75.0w   135 kt
 48hr VT     20/0000z 18.2n  78.4w   135 kt
 72hr VT     21/0000z 20.0n  85.5w   140 kt
 96hr VT     22/0000z 22.5n  91.5w   110 kt
120hr VT     23/0000z 25.0n  97.5w   110 kt...near coast of Mexico

[steveegg]

That would be trouble. At that point, I’d be finding the hallway (or at least the bathroom).

[SouthTexas]

The last time I was there, there were remnants of hotels that were concrete only. No glass, no interior walls, basically only structure left. I suppose they eventually rebuilt them.

Would not be a very nice place to be during a storm.

[CindyDawg]

It’s the blue one that is doing it’s own thing.

[VeniVidiVici]

Several months ago I jokingly told my son, who was attending Heavy Equipment Operators school in the Air Force, not to worry about going to the Middle East because he would probably end-up going to the Yucatan.

He graduated today.

[alancarp]

URNT12 KNHC 180328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/02:58:10Z
B. 14 deg 53 min N
065 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2547 m
D. 126 kt
E. 148 deg 007 nm
F. 245 deg 117 kt
G. 141 deg 005 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 129KT @ 03:00:50Z

I think those bold lines are the key ones for the anateurs like me.