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Hurricane Dean Live Thread [Now Cat 4]
NOAA/NWS ^ | August 16 2007 | NOAA/NWS

Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data East Caribbean

Buoy Data West Caribbean

Storm Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: dean; hurricane; hurricanedean; tropical; tsdean
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To: RDTF
I wish that Drudge would stop soft-selling things </sarcasm>
281 posted on 08/17/2007 1:29:30 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

I thought Hurricane Dean had moved south from Vermont to the DC area, where it has been causing damage ever since. YEE-ARRRGH!


282 posted on 08/17/2007 1:31:19 PM PDT by Clemenza (Rudy Giuliani, like Pesto and Seattle, belongs in the scrap heap of '90s Culture)
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To: numberonepal
"I've said since Katrina that I thought Barbour could be the right man for the White House. He's a good leader with a git 'er dun attitude"......
I agree but Mississippi sure has benefited from his leadership...they would hate to see him go but the whole country needs him.

My dad is wheelchair bound and still lives along the coast of Mississippi, not 3 blocks from the beach. I am willing to bet he won’t leave for this one.

283 posted on 08/17/2007 1:40:08 PM PDT by 4everontheRight ("Boy, those French: They have a different word for everything! "- Steve Martin)
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To: nwctwx

5pm advisory out - intensity unchanged, both windspeed and pressure. Forecast track takes it right over Jamaica as a Cat 4.


284 posted on 08/17/2007 1:43:44 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: nwctwx

Five day track at 5pm still treats GFDL as an outlier - no real shift from the 11 AM 5 day.


285 posted on 08/17/2007 1:45:35 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: dirtboy
Hurricane Dean Public Advisory 19

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 17, 2007

...Dangerous Hurricane Dean racing westward across the Caribbean
Sea... 
 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Guadeloupe and its
dependencies.  The warning will likely be discontinued later
tonight.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the following
islands of the Lesser Antilles...Montserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St
Kitts...Barbuda...and Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands.  The
warning will likely be discontinued later tonight.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the South Coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano to the Haiti/Dominican
Republic border.  A Hurricane Watch also remains in effect from Cabo
Beata to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for
Haiti from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince.
 
At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.  A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.
 
At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued a
tropical storm watch from the province of Camaguey eastward to the
province of Guantanamo.  A tropical storm watch means that tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.
 
At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the Hurricane Warning for Martinique and
Dominica has been discontinued.
 
At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Lucia...Saba...St. Eustatius...St. Maarten has been discontinued.
 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including
the Cayman Islands...should closely monitor the progress of Dean.
 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
 
At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 15.0 north...longitude 64.5 west or about 840 miles...
1355 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 260 miles...
415 km...south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico.
 
Dean is moving toward the west near 21 mph...33 km/hr. This
motion is expected to continue through Saturday with a gradual
decrease in forward speed. On this track...the core of the
hurricane will be moving well south of Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic tonight and Saturday.  
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Dean is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Another reconnaissance plane is scheduled to reach Dean tonight.
 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185
miles...295 km.
 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb...28.38 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from
Dean over Puerto Rico...the Dominican Republic and Haiti with
maximum amounts up to 5 inches possible.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
 
Repeating the 500 PM AST position...15.0 N...64.5 W.  Movement
toward...west near 21 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...125 mph.
Minimum central pressure...961 mb.
 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Avila/Mainelli

286 posted on 08/17/2007 1:46:02 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: dirtboy
Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 19

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 17, 2007

Data from the Air Force hurricane hunter plane earlier today
indicated that Dean reached 110 knots.  Next plane is expected to
reach Dean around 00 UTC tonight. Satellite images continue to show
an eye feature...numerous cyclonically curved convective bands
which are still affecting a large portion of the Lesser Antilles.
The  outflow is well established in all quadrants. Although the
possibility of some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall
replacement cycles could occur at any time...the shear is forecast
to remain low and the ocean temperature increases westward. This
would call for an overall upward intensity trend. This is
supported by the SHIPS....GFDL and hwrf intensity guidance.
 
Dean is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 18 knots. The
steering pattern continues to be controlled by the high pressure
system to the north of the hurricane and the mid to upper-level low
over the southwestern Atlantic and Florida. This low is forecast
to weaken and move westward and be replaced by a ridge. This
pattern would maintain Dean over the Caribbean on a general
westward track across northern Yucatan and the western Gulf of
Mexico. The GFDL shows a more northwesterly track across extreme
western Cuba and the central Gulf of Mexico. While this solution is
outside the overall model guidance envelope...it can not be ruled
out completely since this model has an excellent forecast track
history.   The official track forecast is an update of the previous
one and follows the model consensus.
 
The bottom line is that Dean is expected to be a dangerous hurricane
through the next several days...and all interests in the Caribbean
Sea and the Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
Dean.
 
  
Forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      17/2100z 15.0n  64.5w   110 kt
 12hr VT     18/0600z 15.5n  67.4w   115 kt
 24hr VT     18/1800z 16.4n  70.8w   120 kt
 36hr VT     19/0600z 17.3n  74.0w   125 kt
 48hr VT     19/1800z 18.0n  77.0w   130 kt
 72hr VT     20/1800z 20.0n  84.0w   130 kt
 96hr VT     21/1800z 22.0n  90.0w   100 kt...inland
120hr VT     22/1800z 24.5n  96.0w   105 kt
 
$$
forecaster Avila

287 posted on 08/17/2007 1:48:11 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg
The steering pattern continues to be controlled by the high pressure system to the north of the hurricane and the mid to upper-level low over the southwestern Atlantic and Florida. This low is forecast to weaken and move westward and be replaced by a ridge. This pattern would maintain Dean over the Caribbean on a general westward track across northern Yucatan and the western Gulf of Mexico. The GFDL shows a more northwesterly track across extreme western Cuba and the central Gulf of Mexico. While this solution is outside the overall model guidance envelope...it can not be ruled out completely since this model has an excellent forecast track history.

Here is the $64 billion question as far as Dean is concerned. Will the upper low weaken? Or remain strong enough to pull Dean further northwards?

288 posted on 08/17/2007 1:50:36 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: dirtboy

That could be, one of local forcasters here in Jacksonville said as that cut off low, moved west it would seal Dean on a southern route keeping Florida free of Dean.


289 posted on 08/17/2007 1:52:17 PM PDT by lexington minuteman 1775
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To: lexington minuteman 1775

I don’t see Dean hitting Florida (except for possibly some effects on the far west Panhandle, and even that seems doubtful). But the low, if it drifts into the Gulf and does not dissapate, could help “pull” Dean further north. It looks like the GFDL is believing that will be the case. I seriously, SERIOUSLY hope the GFDL is wrong. At this point, best case is a strike well to the south of Cozumel.


290 posted on 08/17/2007 1:55:45 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: dirtboy
So that's what the cost of rebuilding New Orleans is going to be the second time?

I'm hoping for the ridge.

291 posted on 08/17/2007 1:55:46 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg

You don’t rebuild it...with crime on the way up up up...seems clean up is worthless...flame away


292 posted on 08/17/2007 2:00:09 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: shield
You don’t rebuild it...

C'mon, this is 21st Century America. You cave to the Oprahization of politics and rebuild it over and over again, instead of finding the courage to tell the 9th Ward that its time to let nature (and gravity) take their courses and turn a place 20 feet below sea level into a lake, and rebuild somewhere else on higher ground.

293 posted on 08/17/2007 2:02:18 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: dirtboy

294 posted on 08/17/2007 2:08:09 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: dirtboy

Right...


295 posted on 08/17/2007 2:09:39 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand;but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: steveegg; NautiNurse; American Quilter

Well, it seems we’re out of danger down here. Godspeed to you guys downstream.


296 posted on 08/17/2007 2:23:23 PM PDT by cll (Carthage must be destroyed)
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To: cll

‘Tis good news. My western Great Lakes prayers to those next in the firing line.


297 posted on 08/17/2007 2:27:16 PM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: dirtboy

One of our local mets in Houston is now using Max Mayfield as a consultant. (Yeah, I know, I should be watching Doc Frank instead, *oh,well*.)

Anyhoo, Max just stated that the GFDL has consistently been the most accurate predictor over the past 3 years, so he’s tending to favor it at this time.

Our met asked him if he thought Dean would be a Cat 5 at the Yucatan point and he said yes, then qualified it to a high 4, low 5.

The run MM was looking at was still taking the GFDL model up through Louisiana, while our local was saying it is now showing a landfall more to the left, closer to us in Houston. (We’d still be on the dry side, tho.)

Just reporting.


298 posted on 08/17/2007 2:48:32 PM PDT by Rte66
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To: Rte66
Unfortunately, any projected path from Freeport to central LA is gonna cause a spike in oil futures.

Stay south, Dean! Stay south!

299 posted on 08/17/2007 3:02:50 PM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: NautiNurse

I’m wondering if his fast speed is keeping that dry area in the NW quandrant from weakening him as much as it would a slower, less organized sotrm. Of course at this point he’s creating enough moisture that it would take a HUGE dry area to hurt him :(


300 posted on 08/17/2007 3:10:17 PM PDT by brothers4thID (FDT: "Every notice that while our problems are getting bigger, our politicians are getting smaller?")
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