I don’t see Dean hitting Florida (except for possibly some effects on the far west Panhandle, and even that seems doubtful). But the low, if it drifts into the Gulf and does not dissapate, could help “pull” Dean further north. It looks like the GFDL is believing that will be the case. I seriously, SERIOUSLY hope the GFDL is wrong. At this point, best case is a strike well to the south of Cozumel.
One of our local mets in Houston is now using Max Mayfield as a consultant. (Yeah, I know, I should be watching Doc Frank instead, *oh,well*.)
Anyhoo, Max just stated that the GFDL has consistently been the most accurate predictor over the past 3 years, so he’s tending to favor it at this time.
Our met asked him if he thought Dean would be a Cat 5 at the Yucatan point and he said yes, then qualified it to a high 4, low 5.
The run MM was looking at was still taking the GFDL model up through Louisiana, while our local was saying it is now showing a landfall more to the left, closer to us in Houston. (We’d still be on the dry side, tho.)
Just reporting.
I agree. Guess I better cancel the scuba trip to Cancun eh?LOL.