Posted on 04/17/2007 12:22:58 PM PDT by pissant
The conventional wisdom about presidential nomination campaigns is almost always wrong. And the pundits' dismissal of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani's bid for the Republican nomination will not improve their batting average. Even though Giuliani is way ahead of everybody in early primary polls, the experts are already writing Giuliani's obituary.
Some of this spin is wishful thinking by Democrats who don't want to face him in the general election. Other than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), he is better known and more popular than anyone running for president, even Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). And Giuliani has a better chance than any other GOP candidate to turn blue states red. Depending on the Democratic presidential nominee, he could put into play states like New York, New Jersey and California that are normally off-limits to Republicans.
The rap on Giuliani is that he is a great prospect for winning the general election but has almost no chance to win the GOP nod because of his personal history and his stands on issues such as gun control and gay marriage. But there are at least a couple of reasons why he could go all the way and come out of the Republican National Convention in Minnesota as king of the hill.
First, GOP primary voters, especially born-again Christians, are so horrified at the prospect of Clinton becoming president that they would nominate the devil if they thought it would keep her out of the White House. The stronger Clinton becomes in her bid for the Democratic nomination, the better Giuliani will look to the religious fundamentalists on the Republican side who descend on the Iowa caucuses by the busload.
In backing the most electable candidate, Republican voters would be following a long history of calculation and pragmatic voting in presidential primary campaigns. In 2004, Democrats were so eager to block the reelection of President Bush that they voted with their heads for Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), rather than with their hearts for former Vermont governor Howard Dean.
We may finally get the dream race that everybody wanted in 2000, when then-mayor Giuliani was ready to run against then-first lady Clinton for the U.S. Senate in New York, until fate and the mayor's former wife Donna Hanover intervened.
The other factor that could propel Giuliani to victory in the Republican race is that voters, even primary voters, care more about qualities like leadership and strength than they do about the positions the candidates take on issues. In this context, the reputation for strength that Giuliani built after the Sept. 11 attacks should serve him well in his campaign to win the approval of GOP voters.
To the extent that any single issue will be a factor in voting decisions, national security will trump anything else. No Republican candidate projects the strength that a president needs to stand up to the bad guys like the one who claims that he rid New York City of thugs and saved the city from ruin on the worst day of its proud history.
As Giuliani prepares to officially announce his candidacy, he appears to be softening his position on gays and guns to appeal to the born-again Christian wing of the GOP. He said recently that gun control was good for New York City but might not work nationally. Despite his friendships with gay couples, Giuliani also announced that he was opposed to same-sex marriage. But fudging the issues is a mistake for Giuliani, because renouncing long-held beliefs undermines the reputation he has for strength and integrity.
Democratic activists are afraid of Giuliani, and Republican diehards fear him, as well. But the Bush presidency is slowly sinking into the sunset and Giuliani is the GOP's best bet to hang on to the White House.
(Brad Bannon is president of Bannon Communications Research, a Democratic polling firm in Washington).
Conservatives don't vote for or promote liberals.
Well Pissant you could possible want have everyone you want on your thread. Thanks again and enjoy. The Rudy people I hope will not be on this thread. At least not today. Not a good time.
The current edition of Forbes has a ringing endorsement for Rudy by Steve Forbes.
The list of accomplishments in his tenure as mayor is both long and deep. He accomplished by excellant leadership what several others screwed up miserablly. He is the only executive that can lead and suceed in the whole bunch.
I’m still not committed although I was a Forbes supporter last primary.
And I, Southside Chicago Republican, president of SCR Communications Research, a Republican polling firm in Chicago, say that the Democrats' only hope is Dennis Kucinich.
LOL!
Giuliani Is the GOP’s Only Hope
God help us....
The media would have you believe that you need a liberal to beat a liberal. Horse Hockey!!!
The liberal media has not called a election in twenty years. Their front runner never wins. Check Coward Dean in 04 and when he lost, Kohn Kerry was supposed to be the next President.
Don't believe the media.
My message to the the GOP:
If you want Conservatives to show up at the poles, don't run a liberal. You run a liberal and you will lose. Talk about the issues that motivate the Conservatives like gun control, abortion, God in public view. This will motivate the people. Give us the same choice and we will not be motivated.
I didn't think the Conservatives would sit down in '04 because of the border, but they did. I think folks should be more afraid of not giving the Conservatives a good candidate, then they should be of Hillary, Rudy, and/or the liberal media.
Against Hillary, Fred Thompson, Newt Gingrich and the other conservative favorites are LOSERS!
The GOP has made conservativism unpalatable to the majority of independents and it will take time to repair the damage.
Giuliani Is the GOP’s Only Hope..
If that’s true, then stick a fork in the GOP, it’s done.
Rudy Giuliani is by no means the ONLY hope for the GOP.
In fact, most of his apparent “popularity” is being pushed by the MSM, in a desperate effort to stave off any attempt by the more conservative factions within the GOP to unite behind any other candidate. This has not yet happened, and in fact, most of the “popularity” that Giuliani enjoys comes almost exclusively at the expense of John McCain.
“GOP nod because of his personal history and his stands on issues such as gun control and gay marriage.”
And abortion, and big government...... The guy is a liberal with an “R” behind his name. Give us a break!
Rudy is the Republican’s Thermopylae!
If Giuliani is the GOP’s only hope, then there is no hope.
If Rudy is our only hope then we have no hope.
Joe Namath wore panty hose lol.
John
Thank god for some sanity on here. I’m with you. We fight it out in the primaries and whichever Republican comes out standing will get my vote in the general election. The whole idea that someone can’t morally vote for Rudy and will stay home if he gets the GOP nomination never has made any logical sense to me, unless they are okay with Hitlerly in the White House.
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