Posted on 04/17/2007 12:22:58 PM PDT by pissant
The conventional wisdom about presidential nomination campaigns is almost always wrong. And the pundits' dismissal of former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani's bid for the Republican nomination will not improve their batting average. Even though Giuliani is way ahead of everybody in early primary polls, the experts are already writing Giuliani's obituary.
Some of this spin is wishful thinking by Democrats who don't want to face him in the general election. Other than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), he is better known and more popular than anyone running for president, even Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). And Giuliani has a better chance than any other GOP candidate to turn blue states red. Depending on the Democratic presidential nominee, he could put into play states like New York, New Jersey and California that are normally off-limits to Republicans.
The rap on Giuliani is that he is a great prospect for winning the general election but has almost no chance to win the GOP nod because of his personal history and his stands on issues such as gun control and gay marriage. But there are at least a couple of reasons why he could go all the way and come out of the Republican National Convention in Minnesota as king of the hill.
First, GOP primary voters, especially born-again Christians, are so horrified at the prospect of Clinton becoming president that they would nominate the devil if they thought it would keep her out of the White House. The stronger Clinton becomes in her bid for the Democratic nomination, the better Giuliani will look to the religious fundamentalists on the Republican side who descend on the Iowa caucuses by the busload.
In backing the most electable candidate, Republican voters would be following a long history of calculation and pragmatic voting in presidential primary campaigns. In 2004, Democrats were so eager to block the reelection of President Bush that they voted with their heads for Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.), rather than with their hearts for former Vermont governor Howard Dean.
We may finally get the dream race that everybody wanted in 2000, when then-mayor Giuliani was ready to run against then-first lady Clinton for the U.S. Senate in New York, until fate and the mayor's former wife Donna Hanover intervened.
The other factor that could propel Giuliani to victory in the Republican race is that voters, even primary voters, care more about qualities like leadership and strength than they do about the positions the candidates take on issues. In this context, the reputation for strength that Giuliani built after the Sept. 11 attacks should serve him well in his campaign to win the approval of GOP voters.
To the extent that any single issue will be a factor in voting decisions, national security will trump anything else. No Republican candidate projects the strength that a president needs to stand up to the bad guys like the one who claims that he rid New York City of thugs and saved the city from ruin on the worst day of its proud history.
As Giuliani prepares to officially announce his candidacy, he appears to be softening his position on gays and guns to appeal to the born-again Christian wing of the GOP. He said recently that gun control was good for New York City but might not work nationally. Despite his friendships with gay couples, Giuliani also announced that he was opposed to same-sex marriage. But fudging the issues is a mistake for Giuliani, because renouncing long-held beliefs undermines the reputation he has for strength and integrity.
Democratic activists are afraid of Giuliani, and Republican diehards fear him, as well. But the Bush presidency is slowly sinking into the sunset and Giuliani is the GOP's best bet to hang on to the White House.
(Brad Bannon is president of Bannon Communications Research, a Democratic polling firm in Washington).
Aye!
You forgot the BARF alert.
They keep saying I’d be willing to nominate the devil to keep Clinton from getting elected.
Rudy’s the only hope for democrats
Rudy is a liberal tool. I won’t vote for him under any circumstances. Period.
me 2!
28 years of 2 families
seems like a banana republic dictatorship.
Over-rated RINO
Rudy would not even carry New York.
If a Republican is going to win the election, Democrats would want it to be Rudy. I think this is a hoax by Democrats. Wait until Newt or Fred decide to run. Then we will have one hell of a race.
I have no problem with Rudy running.
I just mind that he is doing it as a Republican. The ultimate RINO.
I little lipstick, slide on some nice pantyhose after I shave my legs, a good wig with real human hair, a little stuffing for the chest, some nice panties with matching bra, the right earrings, a dash of makeup, the perfect skirt, the right blouse and just a hint of perfume and like most conservative men I’m in heaven.......
Oh, look! Snowballs in Hell. Now I know I can vote for Rudi.
I agree. Rudy is pro-choice, pro-gun control, and pro-gay marriage. He’s more liberal than some Democrats. I’m surprised that anyone who reads freerepublic would consider voting for Rudy.
He can be our first woman president too!
Clinton out-raised but still sits atop largest war chest
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1818861/posts
Rush Limbaugh: It’s All About the Clintons and ‘08 (80% chance HRC pres)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1818569/posts
Rush: “ But we’re gearing up for this election, and if you don’t think that in the Drive-By Media and the Democrat Party, if you don’t think 2008 is all about the Clintons getting back in the White House, you’ve got another thing coming. I’m going to tell you as we sit here today, there is an 80% chance that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States, if you look at the way things are falling out right now.
Whatever it is, they’re doing everything they can to take Rudy out.
But I’m telling you, I know the Clinton machine”
If Rudy is the Republican’s “only hope”, prepare to welcome the Hildabeast (and the missing silverware) back to the White House in 08.......
Yes, horrific crimes stikes in many places, unfortunately, at our college campuses too. Satan is busy.
Child-rape images proliferate on the web
http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/childrape-images-proliferate-on-the-web/2007/04/17/1176696837426.html
24 killed, dozens injured in Baghdad blasts
http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?id=c6861dea-bec1-48ea-9935-2d8e68a1a801&;
Police: East Texas Boy Is Murdered and Sexually Assaulted
http://www.kltv.com/Global/story.asp?S=6377808&nav=menu117_3
Saint Rootie.
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