Posted on 08/25/2006 12:40:57 PM PDT by Bob J
In an Election 2006 conference sponsored by Paul Weyrich and the Free Congess Foundation this afternoon, panelist Robert Novak stated that based on his and others significant research he believed the GOP would lose between 27-30 seats in the House this fall.
Other panelists inlcuded John Fund, Kate O'Bierne and John Gizzy. A replay of the one hour conference can be heard at www.Rightalk.com , which webcast the event. click on "The Right Hour" logo.
"done nothing with."
The House has done a lot, which tends not to get covered.
The Senate has blocked almost everything, but that's mainly the Rats' fault.
I agree that not much has happened, but you can't just simplistically blame the GOP. It's far from the truth.
I also agree that they haven't been aggressive enough on some issues, and that our entire national leadership isn't very articulate. But again, the Senate -- its do-nothing culture, and its Rats, and its Republicans -- is the big problem.
Maybe he doesn't want them to get too comfortable?
When it comes to pot and some other issues you'll find very liberal thinking Alaskans, but..... even at UAF you will not find a lot of support for gun control, tighter rules on hunting....... The Alaskan liberal is very much pro defense, pro gun, and some other issues which fall out of the picture when comparing them to a California liberal. Just my opinion- without having done large scale surveys.
The Republican congressional leadership have disgraced their offices and deserve to lose.
They are fortunate only in the poor quality of their opposition, and may survive, but I doubt it.
In fairness to Novak, elections are hard to predict this far out, and some elections are hard to predict even in the last few weeks. His predictions on other matters have tended to be very good, unless someone can give me good examples to the contrary. He is one smart guy, and his "prince of darkness" schtick is a good antidote to the overoptimistic, often groundless chest-beating by some other conservative spokesmen.
From Strata-Sphere blog: "http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/2362"
Dems Losing Edge Rapidly
The Democrats’ edge with the electorate is disappearing rapidly, and may be gone. One look at the RCP poll summary today tells it all:
CBS News/NY Times - 1206 Adults - Dems +15.0
USA Today/Gallup - 1001 Adults - Dems +2.0
CNN/Opinion Research - 1033 Adults - Dems +9.0
Hotline/FD - 425 LV - Tie
Rasmussen - 960 LV - Dems +8.0
The two big outliers (CNN and CBS) are simply polls of ‘adults’. This category of society is the (a) easiest swayed by the antique media because they do not follow politics at all and (b) do not vote because they could care less what happens in politics. The surprise is the Gallup poll of adults. If you ignore the two outliers we see Dems +2, tie, and +8 for an average of +3. If you want to look at only Likely Voters it is +4. Either way the double digit leads we have seen for Democrats has disappeared, at the same time we see numerous Rep Senate races turning as well. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to connect these dots.
The constant bashing of the anti-terrorism efforts of this administration by the left was always a risky gambit, and it fell apart the day millions of Americans had to fly while the UK Airline Plot was being broadcast and new security restrictions were put in place. All the theoretical BS about potential 4th amendment violations went out the window when people realized we really, really want to know if Al Qaeda is contacting someone here in the US.
And I think more and more people are going to really shun the left when they realize NSA leads have been going to the FIS Court for surveillance. Heck, the NY Times reported on how much workload the leads put on the FBI when Bush tore down the Gorelick Wall! see here, past the updates in the front of the post for snippets of the NY Times reporting on this. So what is the NY Times going to say when the nation learns they exposed how the NSA tips off the FBI who then investigate the leads and takes them to the FISA Court?? More importantly, what will all those Democrats say to their constituents explaining how they allowed this to happen
That's why Irey must beat Murtha in PA-12 to help stem the tide. Go to: www.irey.com for Diana Irey's website
I would have predicted this a month or two ago, but the polls have been shifting. I wonder when he did his research.
I have been hearing the GOP losing the house since 96....
"Aren't we scheduled to catch Bin Laden in late October?"
That was the memo I got.
Is nuking Iran December or January? May be weather dependant.
I was thinking about (NH-2) but my list is far from comprehensive.
Heck if we are tied in the generic ballot among likely voters, we'll be fine.
Also, gas prices should be lower this fall (unless Iran does something stupid) and that will help too.
No, we are bunker busting the Nuclear sites in Iran, not nuking Iranian sites, you miss read that memo.
I also forgot to Democrat culture of corruption seat:
WV (Mollahan's seat) possible GOP pick up of one.
I haven't looked closely at LA yet, but I'm wondering about the new demographics of Congressman William Jefferson, Democrat Lousisiana's seat.
Republican elites always get into a hizzy and worry they will loose everything every election season.
Damn, I hope I can call them back . . . Seem to have lost the frequency.
Oh well.
Rove's trying to decide whether to bring out bin laden this fall, or wait until 2008.
Good thing they have the media to come to their rescue and prop them up.
"Republicans get into a tizzy and worry that they will lose everything every election season."
Gee, maybe that's one reason they have kept control of Congress all these years: Preparing for the worst.
As General Patton said: The real hero is the man who fights even though he's scared.
All this stems from a USA Today article about "vulnerable" GOP seats, and if you look closely at those, only 2-3 are truly vulnerable . . . and they didn't bother to even LOOK for vulnerable Dem seats.
I posted a thread on FR here about two months ago analyzing this, asking Freepers for a no-crap assessment of the specific seats, and I'm satisfied that besides Delay, Ney, and Hostetler in IN, and perhaps the two in CT, there are very few truly vulnerable.
Only five? I think they'll do better than that.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.