World Terrorism: News, History and Research Of A Changing World #4.

Tehran & Damascus Move to Lebanon Lebanon-born Walid Phares is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Author of the recent book Future Jihad, he was also one of the architects of 2004’s United Nations resolution 1559, which called for the disarming of Hezbollah. NRO editor Kathryn Lopez recently talked to Phares about what’s going on in the Mideast, what happened to the Cedar Revolution, and this war we’re all in.

Kathryn Jean Lopez: What is “Future Jihad”? Are we seeing it in the Mideast now?

Walid Phares: “Future Jihad,” which has already begun, refers to a new and potent form of Islamic terrorism, characterized by a Khumeinist-Baathist axis. These are the two trees of jihadism, so to speak — the Salafism and Wahabism embodied in al Qaeda and the sort of jihadism led by Iran and also including Syria, Hezbollah, and their allies in Lebanon.

The alliance has not been in entire agreement as to strategy. The al Qaeda branch began its “Future Jihad” in the 1990s; its efforts culminated on 9/11 and have continued explosively since then. The international “Salafists” aimed at the U.S. in the past decade in order to strengthen their jihads on various battlefields (Chechnya, India, Sudan, Algeria, Indonesia, Palestine, etc.). “Weaken the resolve of America,” their ideologues said, “and the jihadists would overwhelm all the regional battlefields.”

As I argue in Future Jihad, bin Laden and his colleagues miscalculated on the timing of the massive attack against the U.S. in 2001. While they wounded America, they didn’t kill its will to fight (as was the case, for instance, in the Madrid 3/11 attacks). I have heard many jihadi cadres online, and have seen al Jazeera commentators on television, offering hints of criticism about the timing. They were blaming al Qaeda for shooting its imagined “silver bullet” before insuring a strategic follow up. But bin Laden and Zawahiri believe 9/11 served them well, and has put a global mobilization into motion. Perhaps it has, but the U.S. counter strategy in the Middle East, chaotic as the region currently appears, has unleashed counter jihadi forces. The jury is still out as to the time factor: when these forces will begin to weaken the jihadists depends on our perseverance and the public understanding of the whole conflict.

The other “tree” of jihadism, with its roots in Iran, withheld fire after 9/11. They were content to watch the Salafists fight it out with the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan and Iraq, not to mention within the West, as terror cells were hunted down. Ahmedinejad, Assad, and Nasrallah were analyzing how far the US would go, and how far the Sunnis and Salafis would go as well.

The fall of the Taliban and of the Baath in Iraq, however, changed Iran and Syria’s patient plans. The political changes in the neighborhood, regardless of their immediate instability, were strongly felt in Tehran and Damascus (but unfortunately not in the U.S., judging from the political debate here), and pushed the Khumeinists and the Syrian Baathists to enter the dance, but carefully. Assad opened his borders to the jihadists in an attempt to crumble the U.S. role in Iraq, while Iran articulated al Sadr’s ideology for Iraq’s Shiia majority.

A U.S.-led response came swiftly in 2004 with the voting of UNSCR 1559, smashing Syria’s role in Lebanon and forcing Assad to withdraw his troops by April 2005. In response, the “axis” prepared for a counter attack on the Lebanese battlefield by assassinating a number of the Cedar Revolution leaders, including MP Jebran Tueni. In short, the attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah and the kidnappings of soldiers were the tip of an offensive aimed at drawing attention away from Iran’s nuclear weapons programs and Syria’s assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri. Hezbollah was awaiting its moment for revenge against the Cedar Revolution too.

What we see now is 1) a Syro-Iranian sponsored offensive aimed at all democracies in the region and fought in Lebanon; 2) Israel’s counter offensive (which it seems to have prepared earlier); and 3) an attempt by Hezbollah to take over or crumble the Lebanese government.

Phares: Actually, it would be more accurate to say that the Cedar Revolution was failed. The masses in Lebanon responded courageously in March 2005 by putting 1.5 million people on the streets of Beirut. They did it without “no-fly-zones,” expeditionary forces, or any weapons at all, for that matter, and against the power of three regimes, Iran, Syria, and pro-Syrian Lebanon, in addition to Hezbollah terror. The “revolution” was for a time astoundingly successful; since then it has been horribly failed, and first of all by Lebanon’s politicians themselves. One of their leaders, General Michel Aoun, shifted his allegiances to Syria and signed a document with Hezbollah. Other politicians from the “March 14 Movement” then stopped the demonstrations, leaving them with the support of God knows what. They failed in removing the pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud and brought back a pro-Syrian politician to serve as a speaker of the house, Nabih Berri. Meanwhile, even as they were elected by the faithful Cedar Revolution masses, they engaged in a round table dialogue with Hezbollah, a clear trap set by Hassan Nasrallah: “Let’s talk about the future,” he said — with the implication, of course, that they forget about the Cedar Revolution and the militia’s disarming. While political leaders sat for months, enjoying the photo ops with Hassan Nasrallah, he was preparing his counter offensive, which he unleashed just a few days before the Security Council would discuss the future of Iran’s nuclear programs.

The Lebanese government of Prime Minister Seniora also abandoned the Cedar Revolution. His cabinet neither disarmed Hezbollah nor called on the U.N. to help in implementing UNSCR 1559. This omission is baffling. The government was given so much support by the international community and, more importantly, overwhelming popular support inside Lebanon: 80 percent of the people were hoping the Cedar Revolution-backed government would be the one to resume the liberation of the country. Now Hezbollah has an upper hand and the government is on the defensive.

The U.S. and its allies can be accused of certain shortcomings as well. While the speeches by the U.S. president, congressional leaders from both parties, Tony Blair, and Jacques Chirac were right on target regarding Lebanon, and while the U.S. and its counterparts on the Security Council were diligent in their follow up on the Hariri assassination and on implementing UNSCR 1559, there was no policy or plan to support the popular movement in Lebanon. Incredibly, while billions were spent on the war of ideas in the region, Lebanese NGOs that wanted to resume the struggle of the Cedar Revolution and fighting alone for this purpose were not taken seriously at various levels. Policy planners thought they were dealing with the “Cedar Revolution” when they were meeting Lebanon’s government and Lebanese politicians. The difference between the high level speeches on Lebanon and the laissez-faire approach from lower levels is amazing. Simply put, there was no policy on supporting the Cedar Revolution against the three regimes opposing it and the $400 million received by Hezbollah from Iran.

The Cedar Revolution was basically betrayed by its own politicians and is now essentially without a head. Nevertheless, as long as the international support remains, the Revolution will find its way and will face the dangers. The one and a half million ordinary citizens who braved all the dangers didn’t change their minds about Hezbollah’s terror. The resistance and counter-attack was to be expected. Unfortunately, thus far Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have outmaneuvered the West and are at the throats of the Cedar Revolution. The international community must revise its plans, and, if it is strongly backed by the U.S. and its allies, including France, the situation can be salvaged. The good seeds are still inside the country.

Transdnestr explosion kills one, injures eleven
RIA Novosti - Moscow,Russia
TIRASPOL, August 13 (RIA Novosti) - One person was killed and eleven
others
wounded in a trolley-bus explosion in the capital of Moldova's
breakaway
province ...
http://en.rian.ru/world/20060813/52576317.html
See all stories on this topic:
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Turkish worker killed in mine explosion
Reuters AlertNet - London,England,UK
ANKARA, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Turkish rescuers were struggling on Sunday
to
save a trapped miner after an explosion which killed one of his
workmates.
...
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L1365846.htm
See all stories on this topic:
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Tanker alight after 'explosion'
BBC News - UK
... building were well alight. The spokesman added that one person was
believed to be missing after the explosion. Police are warning ...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/manchester/4788847.stm

One Person Dies in Explosion in Trolley Bus in Tiraspol
Focus News - Sofia,Bulgaria
Tiraspol. One person died and another 11 were wounded in explosion in a
trolleybus in Tiraspol, ITAR-TASS reported. According to ...
http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?catid=133&ch=0&newsid=94011

Bomb might have caused trolleybus explosion in Tiraspol
ITAR-TASS - Moscow,Russia
TIRASPOL, August 13 (Itar-Tass) - An explosion on a trolleybus occurred
in Tiraspol on Sunday noon. Presumably, there was a bomb ...
http://www.tass.ru/eng/level2.html?NewsID=10703169&PageNum=0

Two Miners Killed in Bolu Gas Explosion
Zaman Online - Istanbul,Turkey
... of Bolu. A coalmine collapsed on Sunday morning around 10.00 am in
the town of Mengen, near Bolu, due to the gas explosion. Two ...
http://www.zaman.com/?bl=hotnews&alt=&trh=20060813&hn=35616

Baby bottle 'used as bomb'

By Fiona Hudson

August 14, 2006

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20115941-2,00.html

A HUSBAND and wife arrested in the British terror raids allegedly
planned to take their six-month-old baby on a mid-air suicide mission.

Scotland Yard police are quizzing Abdula Ahmed Ali, 25, and his
23-year-old wife Cossor over suspicions they were to use their baby's bottle
to hide a liquid bomb.

The theory is one of the reasons security chiefs are now insisting
mothers taste babies' milk at check-in desks before allowing them to take
bottles aboard flights.

The pair are among up to 23 suspects being questioned over a plot to
bring down nine airliners over five US cities, killing thousands of
people in the air and on the ground.

The questioning of the group comes as British Government sources
yesterday revealed many of those suspects posed as relief workers to travel
to al-Qaeda training camps in Pakistan.

It has also been revealed that security services are secretly
monitoring "dozens" of fresh plots involving hundreds of suspects which could be
unleashed at any time.

One government source said at least 30 priority cases were under urgent
investigation.

"All those 30 are seen as serious, determined attacks that will happen
unless we stop them," the source said.

Police spent yesterday combing through the Alis' east London housing
commission flat for clues.

Cossor took her baby with her to the police station during last week's
raids but her son is now being cared for by grandparents.

Cossor's grandfather, Nazir Ahmed, 84, said Abdula had travelled to
Pakistan about four weeks ago.

"We didn't understand what the hurry was and why he needed to go," Mr
Ahmed said.

A neighbour at the flats where the married couple lived said he would
be stunned if claims were true.

"I simply cannot believe he could have been involved in a plot like
this. He is religious and seemed to love his family," the neighbour said.

"I would never have dreamed he could have been involved in anything
like this."

A family friend of Cossor said she had known the arrested mother 12
years and believed her to be innocent.

"I think it is a case of mistaken identity. The last thing she'd be
interested in is terrorism. They are just simple day-to-day people going
about their own business," she said.

Police in England have reportedly recovered bottles containing
peroxide, including some with false bottoms, from a recycling centre close to
the homes of some of the arrested suspects.

It has emerged MI5 agents launched covert intrusions on the homes of
some suspects several weeks ago in "sneak and peek" operations to plant
listening devices and gather evidence ahead of the arrests last week.

Links between suspects in the jet bomb plot and those behind the London
7/7 attacks have also come to light.

There are reports as many as five of those arrested attended the same
terror training camp in Pakistan as two of the July 7 London suicide
bombers.

And US intelligence sources said they believed at least two of the
suspects had trained in Karachi and met al-Qaeda operatives in the lead up
to the 7/7 attacks.

http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news/?fr=yalerts-keyword&c=&p=al-Qaeda+fbi&ei=utf-8

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1. Son of al-Qaeda leader in Britain among suspects Open this result in new window
IBN live - Aug 13 12:23 AM
The son of a Muslim immigrant from India and suspected al-Qaeda leader is among the 24 people arrested in the UK.
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2. Britain's Al-Qaeda leader seized Open this result in new window
Times Online - Aug 12 3:47 PM
SECURITY sources believe that a man arrested in last week’s anti- terror raids in Britain is Al-Qaeda’s leader in this country.
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3. Directly or indirectly, the hand of Al Qaeda is seen in terror plot Open this result in new window
International Herald Tribune - Aug 11 9:07 AM
Intelligence and counterterrorism officials say the scale and sophistication of the scheme to blow up jetliners over the Atlantic could mean that Al Qaeda, whose central command has been severely damaged since 2001, is again able to direct attacks.
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4. London airline plot echoes 1995 Al-Qaeda plan in Asia: experts Open this result in new window
AFP via Yahoo! News - Aug 11 1:52 AM
An alleged terror plot to blow up US-bound jetliners from Britain is eerily reminiscent of a foiled 1995 Al-Qaeda conspiracy to explode planes from Asia over the Pacific Ocean, experts say.
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5. Scale and detail of aborted plan recall Al Qaeda Open this result in new window
International Herald Tribune - Aug 10 8:56 PM
Officials said the sophistication of the scheme could mean that Al Qaeda was behind it and was still able to direct attacks.
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6. AL QAEDA ROLE: Sophistication, scope suggest involvement Open this result in new window
San Francisco Chronicle - Aug 11 4:00 AM
Strong indications of an al Qaeda link to the alleged airline bomb plot uncovered in London on Thursday suggest that the terrorist network has survived and adapted despite heavy blows to its leadership and organizational structure over the past five years,...
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7. US issues highest alert over airline bomb plot, suspects Al-Qaeda link Open this result in new window
AFP via Yahoo! News - Aug 10 9:30 AM
US authorities issued their highest level "Red" terrorism alert for the first time after the discovery of a plot to bomb multiple US airliners flying home from Britain, an operation officials said bore the imprint of the Al-Qaeda movement.
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8. Plot bears mark of al-Qaeda Open this result in new window
News 24 South Africa - Aug 10 7:07 AM
A plot to bomb multiple airliners flying between Britain and the United States has "the earmarks" of an operation by the al-Qaeda network, says the FBI.
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9. Hints Al-Qaeda Involved In Airline Bomb Plot Open this result in new window
Free Internet Press - Aug 11 12:30 AM
Strong indications of an al-Qaeda link to the alleged airliner-bombing plot uncovered in London yesterday suggest that the terrorist network has survived and adapted despite heavy blows to its leadership and organizational structure over the past five years, said U.S. intelligence officials. Possible evidence of an al-Qaeda footprint, officials said, includes the trips made by several of the
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10. Terror Plot Has Marks of Al-Qaeda, Chertoff Says (Update1) Open this result in new window
Bloomberg.com - Aug 10 7:57 AM
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The 21 terrorist suspects arrested in the U.K. overnight had a ``well-advanced plan'' to detonate electronic devices or liquid explosives disguised as beverages onboard U.S.-bound aircraft, a sophisticated plot suggestive of al-Qaeda, U.S. officials said.
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Jerusalem Post
Aug. 13, 2006 9:10

What Israel has done for US lately
By YOSSI KUPERWASSER
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525859924&pagename=JPost%
2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Many pundits in Washington, among them supporters of Israel,
anticipated
better results from the month-long war against Hizbullah.

They were hoping for Israel to put Iran and Syria on the defensive by
using IDF military might to eradicate Hizbullah much faster. Some have
already concluded that this was an opportunity squandered.

The truth is that the last month has not been "a walk in the park" for
Israel. We have been fighting a ruthless, well-armed and well-trained,
albeit small, army that has spent the last six years preparing for this
war while we have been busy on many other fronts.

Nevertheless, those in Washington who are disappointed with the results
should consider a list of dividends that America has received from our
campaign: First and foremost, Israel has sent a loud and clear message
that any terrorist entity that carries out an act of aggression will
pay
a heavy price.

Moreover, we have proven that a "spoiled" Western society, as Hizbullah
perceived Israel, can withstand barrages of rocket-fire on its
civilians
and still maintain an unfaltering resolution to stand up and fight.

Second, by exerting heavy military pressure on Hizbullah and the
Lebanese government, we forced the collapse of Nasrallah's strategy
that
was based on unaccountability and terror-deterrence.

In so doing, we created the necessary conditions to compel the
international community to take long-overdue measures to implement
earlier UN resolutions that the free world hopes will ultimately turn
Lebanon into an accountable, sovereign nation.

If this happens, Syria and Iran would be the main losers of this war.
Security Council Resolution 1701 approved Friday is the direct result
of
that pressure, and now it is up to the international community to
ensure
that it is implemented.

Third, we helped people across the globe world understand the extent of
the threat that Iranian radicalism poses to the entire free world, and
why it is so important to prevent it from becoming a nuclear power.

Fourth, we exposed Syria's role in supporting terror - both by
facilitating the transport of Iranian weapons to Hizbullah, and by
supplying its own heavy, long-range rockets and other weaponry to this
terror organization. You might be surprised to know that until this
war,
the international community had refused to acknowledge that Syria
supplied these rockets to Hizbullah.

Fifth, we have shown how irresponsible the Russians were in supplying
Syria with state-of-the-art weapons that have ended up in the hands of
Hizbullah.

And finally, we helped the world to better understand the dangers posed
by Hizbullah's fundamentalist brainwashing machine. In terms of the
systematic and deliberate killing of civilians, the difference between
Iranian-sponsored Hizbullah and Nazi Germany is that while the SS
sought
to conceal its deeds - including from German society - Hizbullah
proudly
proclaims its successes in killing Jewish civilians. This stream of
distorted Islamist extremism is cut from the same cloth of twisted
ideology to which the planners of the thwarted terror attacks on
airliners flying out of London subscribe.

This is a short list of what Israel has achieved in the last month.
These significant, concrete advances should go a long way to satisfying
those wondering what Israel has done lately for those who live in the
land of the free and the home of the brave.
---
The writer is a brigadier-general and former head of IDF Military
Intelligence's research department.

BBC News
Last Updated: Saturday, 12 August 2006, 18:37 GMT 19:37 UK

Lebanon exposes wider fault lines
By Jonathan Marcus
Diplomatic correspondent, BBC News
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4786965.stm

One of the reasons that the bitter fighting between Israel and
Hezbollah
has been so difficult to halt is that it is a symptom of much deeper
fault-lines in the region.

Many analysts see it as part of a wider conflict that pits the United
States against Iran and Syria. But the crisis has also highlighted some
fundamental shifts within the Arab world.

Washington is Israel's close ally. Iran is one of Hezbollah's major
backers.

The month-long conflict has seen bitter fighting
Inevitably then, this crisis serves to accentuate tensions between
Washington and Tehran. Locked in a stand-off over Iran's nuclear
programme, the summer months were expected to be dominated by a rising
crescendo of pressure on Tehran to constrain its nuclear ambitions or,
possibly, to face some serious international pressure.

Instead, international diplomacy has been forced to confront the
fighting across the Israeli-Lebanese border. The controversy
surrounding
Iran's nuclear programme, if not forgotten, has certainly been pushed
to
the sidelines.

A great deal of ink has already been used trying to ascertain why
Hezbollah actually mounted the raid into Israel where it seized the two
Israeli soldiers.

Was this, some argue, an operation ordered by Tehran precisely to
divert
attention from the nuclear controversy? There is no hard evidence
either
way. But the relationship between the Iranians and Hezbollah is close
and long-standing.

This battle of wills involving Washington, Tehran and Damascus looks
set
to continue

Inevitably then, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has taken on
a broader significance in the region. This is certainly the way the
Iranians see it and though they express it in different terms, it is
much the way the Bush administration sees it as well.

Viewed from this perspective it is in effect a proxy war between Iran
and the United States. Syria too, another supporter of Hezbollah, is
cast by Washington and Israel as another villain of the piece.

And whatever happens in Lebanon, this battle of wills involving
Washington, Tehran and Damascus looks set to continue for some time to
come.

Above all it is a battle for wider influence in the region. The modern
Arab nation state is widely seen as being in crisis, battered by
economic and social problems.

Hundreds have been killed and wounded in the fighting
Undemocratic and in some cases unrepresentative regimes are struggling
to confront the rising aspirations of their citizens.

Paradoxically, the Bush administration's deconstruction of Iraq and its
effort to spread democracy through the region have further weakened the
legitimacy of such governments.

The rising political force in the region - whether in the Palestinian
territories or in southern Iraq - is Islamism. The diplomatic debate in
Washington is largely focused on the wisdom of engaging Syria and Iran.

Arab resistance

Critics of the Bush administration's policies stress the need to talk
with your enemies. Mr Bush's supporters argue that this is simply a
species of wishful thinking - efforts, they say, have been made and
failed. Engagement, they argue, is no guarantee of results.

But while criticising the Bush administration's approach in detail,
there is also wider unease about its broader thrust. Is a grand vision
like spreading democracy an aspiration or a policy?

Take a country like Egypt for example, a major recipient of US aid,
with
huge social and economic problems. In political terms it represents one
vast pressure-cooker with no apparent release.

What is the appropriate US policy? Should it be to bolster the present
regime or to seek rapid and fundamental change? Neither is necessarily
a
path to US popularity. And half-measures could simply weaken a regime
on
which the US still counts for support.

The Arab world is at a crucial moment in its history. Successive UN
development reports written by Arab sociologists and economists have
charted the parameters of a burgeoning crisis.

Some scholars now argue that the real power-brokers in the region are
no
longer the great Arab players - Egypt, Syria or Iraq - but increasingly
the three non-Arab powers, Israel, Iran and Turkey.

This brings us back to the Lebanon crisis, for it is ironic that it is
Shia Iran - through its proxy Hezbollah - that is now seen by many in
the region as being the standard-bearer for Arab resistance against
Israel.

Indeed, the rise of the Shia, amplified by Washington's democratic
experiment in Iraq, is deeply troubling the regions traditional Sunni
Arab powers.

The crisis in Lebanon has highlighted fundamental shifts in the Middle
East which promise to reshape the region for many years to come.

The Jerusalem Post
Aug. 13, 2006

Comment: An unmitigated disaster
by Caroline Glick
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525859901&pagename=JPost%
2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

There is a good reason that Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah has
accepted UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which sets the terms for
a
cease-fire between his jihad army and the State of Israel.

The resolution represents a near-total victory for Hizbullah and its
state sponsors Iran and Syria, and an unprecedented defeat for Israel
and its ally the United States. This fact is evident both in the text
of
the resolution and in the very fact that the US decided to sponsor a
cease-fire resolution before Israel had dismantled or seriously
degraded
Hizbullah's military capabilities.

While the resolution was not passed under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter
and so does not have the authority of law, in practice it makes it all
but impossible for Israel to defend itself against Hizbullah aggression
without being exposed to international condemnation on an unprecedented
scale.

This is the case first of all because the resolution places
responsibility for determining compliance in the hands of UN
Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Annan has distinguished himself as a man
capable only of condemning Israel for its acts of self-defense while
ignoring the fact that in attacking Israel, its enemies are guilty of
war crimes. By empowering Annan to evaluate compliance, the resolution
all but ensures that Hizbullah will not be forced to disarm and that
Israel will be forced to give up the right to defend itself.

The resolution makes absolutely no mention of either Syria or Iran,
without whose support Hizbullah could neither exist nor wage an illegal
war against Israel. In so ignoring Hizbullah's sponsors, it ignores the
regional aspect of the current war and sends the message to these two
states that they may continue to equip terrorist armies in Lebanon, the
Palestinian Authority and Iraq with the latest weaponry without paying
a
price for their aggression.

The resolution presents Hizbullah with a clear diplomatic victory by
placing their erroneous claim of Lebanese sovereignty over the Shaba
Farms, or Mount Dov - a vast area on the Golan Heights that separates
the Syrian Golan from the Upper Galilee and is disputed between Israel
and Syria - on the negotiating table. In doing so, the resolution
rewards Hizbullah's aggression by giving international legitimacy to
its
demand for territorial aggrandizement via acts of aggression, in
contravention of the laws of nations.

Moreover, by allowing Lebanon to make territorial claims on Israel
despite the fact that in 2000 the UN determined that Israel had
withdrawn to the international border, the resolution sets a
catastrophic precedent for the future. Because Lebanon is receiving
international support for legally unsupportable territorial demands on
Israel, in the future, the Palestinians, Syrians and indeed the
Jordanians and Egyptians will feel empowered to employ aggression to
gain territorial concessions from the Jewish state even if they
previously signed treaties of peace with Israel. The message of the
resolution's stand on Shaba Farms is that Israel can never expect for
the world to recognize any of its borders as final.

By calling in the same paragraph for the "immediate cessation by
Hizbullah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all
offensive military operations," the resolution treats as equivalent
Hizbullah's illegal aggression against Israel and Israel's legitimate
military actions taken in defense of its sovereign territory.

Operational Paragraph 7, which "affirms that all parties are
responsible
for ensuring that no action is taken contrary to paragraph 1 [which
calls for a cessation of hostilities] that might adversely affect the
search for a long-term solution, humanitarian access to civilian
populations, including safe passage for humanitarian convoys, or the
voluntary and safe return of displaced persons," all but bars Israel
from taking military action to defend itself in the future. Any steps
Israel takes will open it to accusations - by Annan - of breaching this
paragraph.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni had let it be known that Israel's
conditions for a cease-fire included the institution of an arms embargo
against Hizbullah. The government also insisted that the international
force it wished to have deployed along the border would work to
dismantle Hizbullah.

However, paragraph 8 puts both the question of an arms embargo and
Hizbullah's dismantlement off to some future date when Israel and
Lebanon agree to the terms of a "permanent cease-fire." In addition, it
places the power to oversee an arms embargo against Hizbullah in the
hands of the Lebanese government, of which Hizbullah is a member.

While the resolution bars Israel from taking measures necessary to
defend its territory and citizens, by keeping UNIFIL in Lebanon it
ensures that no other force will be empowered to take these necessary
actions. Furthermore, paragraph 2 "calls upon the government of Israel,
as that deployment [of the Lebanese military and UNIFIL] begins, to
withdraw all of its forces from southern Lebanon in parallel. This
means
that Israel is expected to withdraw before a full deployment of
Lebanese
and UNIFIL forces is carried out. As a result, a vacuum will be created
that will allow Hizbullah to reinforce its positions in south Lebanon.

Finally, the resolution makes no operative call for the release of IDF
soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev now being held hostage by
Hizbullah. By relegating their fate to a paragraph in the preamble,
which then immediately turns to Hizbullah's demand for the release of
Lebanese terrorists held in Israeli jails, the resolution all but
eliminates any possibility of their returning home.

Aside from the resolution's egregious language, the very fact that the
US has sponsored a resolution that leaves Hizbullah intact as a
fighting
force constitutes a devastating blow to the national security of both
Israel and the US, for the following reasons:

# It grants the Lebanese government and military unwarranted
legitimacy.
The resolution treats the Lebanese government and military as credible
bodies. However, the Lebanese government is currently under the de
facto
control of Hizbullah and Syria.
Moreover, the Lebanese army is paying pensions to the families of
Hizbullah fighters killed in battle, and its forces have actively
assisted Hizbullah in attacking Israel and Israeli military targets.

Indeed, the seven-point declaration issued by the Lebanese government,
which the UN resolution applauds, was dictated by Hizbullah, as
admitted
by Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and Nasrallah last week.

# It incites Shi'ite violence in Iraq. From a US perspective, the
resolution drastically increases the threat of a radical Shi'ite revolt
in Iraq. Hizbullah is intimately tied to Iraqi Shi'ite terrorist
Muqtada
al-Sadr.

In April 2003, Hizbullah opened offices in southern Iraq and was
instrumental in training the Mahdi Army, which Sadr leads. During a
demonstration in Baghdad last week, Sadr's followers demanded that he
consider them an extension of Hizbullah, and expressed a genuine desire
to participate in Hizbullah's war against the US and Israel.

It should be assumed that Hizbullah's presumptive victory in its war
against Israel will act as a catalyst for violence by Sadr and his
followers against the Iraqi government and coalition forces in the
weeks
to come. Indeed, the Hizbullah victory will severely weaken moderate
Shi'ites in the Maliki government and among the followers of Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

# It empowers Iran. Iran emerges as the main victor in the current war.
Not only was it not condemned for its sponsorship of Hizbullah, it is
being rewarded for that sponsorship because it is clear to all parties
that Iran was the engine behind this war, and that its side has won.

The UN resolution does not strengthen the US hand in future Security
Council deliberations regarding Iran's illicit nuclear weapons program
because the states that object to any action against Iran - Russia and
China - will continue with their refusal to sign on to any substantive
action.

Indeed, Russia's behavior regarding the situation in Lebanon, including
the fact that a large percentage of Hizbullah's arsenal of advanced
anti-tank missiles was sold by Russia to Syria and Iran, exposes that
Moscow's role in the current conflict has been similar to the position
taken by the Soviet Union in earlier Middle East wars.

Furthermore, because the resolution strengthens the UN as the arbiter
of
peace and security in the region, the diplomatic price the US will be
forced to pay if it decides to go outside the UN to contend with the
Iranian threat has been vastly increased.

Many sources in Washington told this writer over the weekend that the
US
decision to seek a cease-fire was the result of Israel's amateurish
bungling of the first three weeks of the war. The Bush administration,
they argued, was being blamed for the Olmert government's incompetence
and so preferred to cut its losses and sue for a cease-fire.

There is no doubt much truth to this assertion. The government's
prosecution of this war has been unforgivably inept. At the same time
it
should be noted that the short-term political gain accrued by the US by
forging the cease-fire agreement will come back to haunt the US, Israel
and all forces fighting the forces of global jihad in the coming weeks
and months.

By handing a victory to Hizbullah, the resolution strengthens the
belief
of millions of supporters of jihad throughout the world that their side
is winning and that they should redouble efforts to achieve their
objectives of destroying Israel and running the US out of the Middle
East.
---
International legal scholar Prof. Anne Bayefsky assisted the author in
analyzing the text of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

The Jerusalem Post
Aug. 13, 2006

Analysis: Not so bad in theory
by Barry Rubin
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525858200&pagename=JPost%
2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

The UN Security Council cease-fire resolution is not so bad in theory,
but everything will depend on how it is implemented, and there are some
very big problems on that front.

There are two basic parts of the resolution. The introductory ("PP")
paragraphs, which set out the framework for interpreting it, and the
operational paragraphs ("OP"). Every word is carefully chosen, often
fought over by American and French diplomats, and has significance.

In the opening section there are a number of points that fit the
original US conception and are fair to Israel:

# The war and resulting deaths are blamed on Hizbullah attacking Israel
(PP-2).

# The purpose of the cease-fire is defined as not only ending the
current fighting but changing the situation which brought about the
conflict. (PP-3)

# The unconditional release of Israel's soldiers is mandatory (PP-3).

# The goal is to have a long-term, permanent solution to the problem
(PP-9).

Four other provisions are intended to meet Lebanese demands but are not
necessarily very much inimical to Israel.

# The issue of the three Lebanese prisoners is to be "settled." This
does not mean they will be freed. It is a sign of the depravity of the
present world that the UN has to have a resolution about the fate of
three murdering terrorists - one of whom killed a father in front of
his
son and then shot the child dead - convicted in a properly constitute
court. But again, this issue is merely to be discussed. (PP-4)

# Israel's withdrawal is supposed to be at the "earliest possible" time
and not immediately as the Lebanese government had demanded (PP-6).

# It takes note of Lebanon's current claim to the Shaba Farms area but
does not accept it. Since the claim is so weak and Syria is unlikely to
support it officially, nothing is likely to happen on this issue.
(PP-7)

# Lebanon will send its army into the southern part of the country
(which Israel also wants).

The new international force will be called UNIFIL (as Lebanon wanted),
but will effectively be an entirely new institution (PP-6). Instead of
a
small number of observers it will be comprised of 15,000 troops.

It is understandable why the United States and Israel agreed to the
above wording since, while it doesn't give them everything they want,
it
is reasonable given what might be expected.

But all this wording is also only a prelude to the list of things to be
done, the OP section. Here, too, the shape of the resolution is not so
bad except for whether - given three key problems - it will be
implemented properly. The three problems are:

# Hizballah, Iran, and Syria will not cooperate.

# The Lebanese government will be too weak, afraid, and sympathetic to
them to force implementation.

# The international community is too craven, ignorant, and cowardly to
act toughly. And even if it wanted to do so (see below) it needs the
permission of the Lebanese government.

The question then is whether the ceasefire will work well enough to be
minimally acceptable or not.

Returning to the actual text, however, a number of the original points
pushed for by the United States have survived. These included the
restriction only on "offensive" Israeli action (OP1). Does this mean
Israel could, for example, send planes over Lebanon to hit a Hizbullah
rocket launcher that is about to or has just fired? That isn't clear
but
it is possible.

Moreover, Israel only has to withdraw when the Lebanese army moves in
and not, as the Lebanese government wanted, immediately (OP2). On the
negative side, though, this means Israeli forces would probably have to
leave before the large international force arrives. The longer it takes
for international forces to get there, the worse this is.

There are other positive sections: Lebanon will have full sovereignty,
there should be no weapons or any other authority in anyone's hands but
the government (OP3). Of course, there is no mention of the fact that
Hizbullah is part of the government coalition, a problem to which we
will return later.

The internationally recognized border is to be respected (OP4).
International aid is to be given to Lebanon for reconstruction. (It is
interesting to ask why no one has ever called for international
reconstruction aid for Israel.) And all this should result in a
long-term solution (OP8), perhaps a hint that Lebanon should make peace
with Israel.

This all brings us to the key provision: "The establishment between the
[international border] and the Litani River of an area free of any
armed
personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the government of
Lebanon and of UNIFIL.." The question, of course, is whether this is
going to happen.

A second important point is that no foreign forces - Syrian, Iranian,
and Palestinian - will be in Lebanon without government consent.
Equally, no arms are supposed to come into Lebanon without government
authorization. As UN members, Syria and Iran are being asked to
cooperate in this effort. It is a safe bet that they will not do so.
Will anyone dare to report such behavior publicly, much less do
anything
about it?

As for disarming Hizbullah, this is said to be the government of
Lebanon's job (i.e., the international force will do nothing on this
issue) and presumably nothing will happen here either.

There were other things that could have been done easily - but were
not.
For example, there could be an international naval force to inspect
ships coming to Lebanon or a unit at the airport to look at cargo
planes. Instead, everything is being left in the Lebanese government's
questionable hands.

But the central contradiction in the document is between OP11 and OP12.
OP11 basically makes UNIFIL action dependent on the Lebanese government
asking for help. In other words, only if the government asks UNIFIL to
fight against terrorists in southern Lebanon or interdict arms
smuggling
can it act.

It should be noted that the Lebanese armed forces are a polite fiction.
Just as Hizbullah is part of the government coalition, it has also
deeply infiltrated the army. Half or even more of the soldiers
sympathize with Hizbullah and will not do anything to - as they think
of
it - "protect" Israel from attack. It is not a highly disciplined
military with a reliable chain of command. If a Lebanese soldier fires
at Hizbullah, the entire army could split into two warring factions,
something the government and politicians will want to avoid at any
cost.

Yet OP12 says UNIFIL can take "all necessary action" in its area of
deployment to fulfill its mission. This could be interpreted, for
example, to mean that the UNIFIL units will attack terrorists south of
the Litani without being explicitly asked to do so by the Lebanese
government. Everything depends on who will command UNIFIL and what its
rules of engagement are going to be. Will it honestly report violations
or just look the other way? Will it only do what the Lebanese
government
expressly asks or take action to prevent cross-border attacks?

A lot will also depend on what strategy Hizbullah adapts and what
Damascus and Teheran urge it to do. There is no chance of Hizbullah
being destroyed, disarmed or moderated. But it can choose how high a
profile it will have.

In a low-profile strategy, Hizbullah would rebuild its forces, smuggle
in arms to reequip, but basically stay north of the Litani. This would
minimize conflict with the ceasefire -though of course they would break
its rules - and the Lebanese government and UNIFIL would almost
certainly look the other way. Israel would not be happy but could or at
least would live with this situation.
In a medium-profile strategy Hizbullah will send men to the south who
will live anonymously among the villagers (from whom many of them are
recruited any way), organizing underground, and setting up arms caches,
tunnels, and other harder-to-spot fortifications. In other words, they
would be preparing for the next war. This is a bolder breaking of the
ceasefire provisions. Israel would demand action and some might or
might
not be taken.

Under a high-profile strategy, Hizbullah would send units to the south
that would function as such, push to see if the Lebanese army and
UNIFIL
would react. It might even try cross-border raids and rocket firings,
probably under the deniable cover of newly created front groups. If
there were no tough response, they would escalate further. Israel might
then take military action and the whole ceasefire could collapse.

Thus, the ceasefire agreement is not necessarily a disaster for Israel
though it certainly isn't a solution either. It may provide some years
of peace.

For Lebanon, though, it is a political disaster. Certainly, the terms
are not going to let a strong Lebanese government emerge or stymie
Syrian and Iranian ambitions. It will permit an end to the current war
and reconstruction, but only until Hizbullah, Damascus, and Teheran
decide they want to fight on Lebanese territory again.

Sat 12 Aug 2006
Flight seats booked for next week may have been for attack
JAMES KIRKUP

THE British bomb plotters could have been preparing to launch their first attacks as soon as next week, it was claimed yesterday.

According to unconfirmed reports, the 23 people now in custody had purchased airline tickets on flights bound for cities in the United States next Wednesday, 16 August.

Up to three flights would have been bombed high above the Atlantic using explosive devices concealed in drinks and personal items, including cameras and music players.

Because the planes would fall into the sea, there would be little or no trace of what downed them, potentially leaving the plotters free to launch another, similar wave of attacks days or even weeks later.

According to US media reports, the would-be bombers were planning a "dry run" of their attacks this weekend, with the real thing coming next week.

Evidence suggesting the tickets for next week's flights had been booked is believed to have been found by police officers searching properties associated with the arrested conspirators.

However, well-placed intelligence sources have told The Scotsman that the "trigger" for the arrests mounted this week was not the purchase of airline tickets.

At the time the arrests were ordered, officials did not believe the plotters had gone as far as booking themselves on flights.

The apparent contradiction between US and British sources over the operation is not the first. There is also a difference over American claims that five more suspects are being sought, something that British sources dismiss.

Privately, British security officials are growing exasperated at the flow of leaked information from the US.

In particular, the ABC television network yesterday reported that MI5 had actually penetrated the UK terror cell, placing an undercover agent inside the plot as part of work known as Operation Overt.

While MI5 is known to run covert agents in the British Muslim community, their work is among the most sensitive in British intelligence circles, and normally close relations between UK and US agencies have not been helped by the ABC report, which appeared to originate with US law enforcement officials.

Reports circulating in the US media yesterday also suggested that the entire operation against the plotters began last summer with an unsolicited tip to MI5 from a British Muslim only days after last July's suicide bomb attacks on London.

According to US officials who briefed the Washington Post, the unnamed informant had grown concerned about the actions of his neighbours and contacted police with his suspicions.

The information was in turn passed to the Security Service, which began an initial background check on a small number of people who were among those arrested on Wednesday.

While British officials confirm that the background surveillance began last summer, they refuse to disclose the precise reason the operation started.

Another version of events in circulation suggests that the origins of the operation lie in information extracted from senior al-Qaeda figures arrested in Pakistan early last year.

Related topic

* Terrorism in the UK
http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=758

This article: http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=1173822006

Last updated: 12-Aug-06 01:54 BST

08/11/06

Two arrested for counterfeiting checks

ð Shoplifting arrest at Wal-Mart lead to the discovery of a couple who tried to pass counterfeit checks.

NORTH PORT -- Police found counterfeit checks, check-printing software, unopened mail and a computer in a rental truck used by a couple caught trying to purchase merchandise at Wal-Mart Sunday.

According to the North Port Police Department, the discovery was made after a Fort Myers man was caught shoplifting three Motorola "Boost" cell phones by Wal-Mart security.

James Antonio Estrella was arrested on charges of retail theft, resisting a merchant, and two counts of possession of a counterfeit instrument.

Along with Estrella, North Port Police also arrested Lana Jean Earle, 36, of Fort Myers, on the charges of uttering forged checks, counterfeiting a payment instrument, attempted grand theft and possession of drug paraphernalia.

Wal-Mart security told police they stopped Estrella after watching him steal the three cell phones, according to police.

According to police, Estrella tried several times to push a Wal-Mart security officer out of his way before he was detained.

Officer Gary Arsenault responded and when informing Estrella that he was being arrested, he saw a signed blank company check folded in half in a side cargo pocket of his shorts. Arsenault said he removed the check and a CD containing check-writing software called "VersaCheck."

During questioning, Arsenault said Estrella arrived at the Wal-Mart with Earle.

Seven police officers worked the case. Officers Jean Paul Dupre and Lt. Kevin Sullivan found the white pickup truck, empty and backed into a parking space.

Dupre said Sullivan saw several paper checks in the center armrest that matched the checks found on Estrella.

About an hour later, Earle walked out of Wal-Mart and got into the driver's seat, police said.

Dupre said he and Sullivan met Earle at the truck and asked her for her identification. She reportedly told them she did not have it on her.

Sullivan asked Earle about the checks on the armrest and the computer in the back seat, Dupre said. Earle reportedly told Sullivan she had a receipt for the computer, and started to look for it.

According to Dupre, the store manager came out and said Earle had attempted to purchase a 32-inch LCD television. Because of Estrella's arrest and knowledge that he had checks on him, the purchase was not allowed.

Earle was asked to go back into the store with police to get further information from the manager, police said. Earle allegedly crumbled up a piece of paper and threw it into a trash can. A Wal-Mart security officer retrieved the paper from the trash can, and handed it to Sullivan. According to police, it was the check Earle tried to pass to purchase the television.

Police searched the pickup truck, and found a large stack of checks in the glove box, Dupre said. In the rear seat, a bag with open and unopened mail was found. Dupre reported also finding "pipes used for smoking marijuana and crack cocaine" inside Earle's purse.

Sullivan called the U.S. Postal Service to send a postal inspector to look into the bag of mail found. The vehicle was impounded.

Estrella is being held in Sarasota County Jail on a $5,000 bond. Earle is being held on a $3,120 bond.

You can e-mail George McGinn at gmcginn@sun-herald.com.

By GEORGE McGINN

Staff Writer

http://www.sun-herald.com/NewsArchive2/081106/tp7ew14.htm?date=081106&story=tp7ew14.htm

© 2006 All rights reserved.

Islamism as the new Communism: Both offer an illusory hope of a paradise to come for dissatisfied people

August 13, 2006
Vox Populi, Dissecting Leftism

Islamism as the new Communism: Both offer an illusory hope of a paradise to come for dissatisfied people

Excerpt below from an article by Tanveer Ahmed, a Bangladeshi psychiatrist living in Sydney:

The 20th century saw the demise of communism, despite its attraction to millions of people who felt poor or downtrodden. It was exposed as a totalitarian system that stifled the aspirations of man. But its stain is spreading within the casing of Islamic fundamentalism. This does not seem obvious, especially considering Osama bin Laden himself was instrumental in defeating the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan more than two decades ago. And the Iranian revolution of 1979 was in part a reaction to the perceived godlessness of communism knocking at its doorstep. This was mimicked to a lesser degree throughout the Middle East, from Egypt to Jordan.

But the old Marxists are extending their influence in many of the Islamic political parties that are rapidly rising in popularity, in response to inept, autocratic Arab governments. Arab governments have closed off opportunity to such an extent that secular forces such as communism or liberalism have minimal outlets. One of the few places for a political voice is at the mosque and through religion. Religion provides the cloak for what is essentially politics.

As a result, political Islam is on the rise throughout the Arab world. The first municipal election in Saudi Arabia delivered wins for Islamic parties and, of course, there was the election of Hamas by the Palestinians. Many of the leaders representing political Islam have previous ties to Arab socialism. This is particularly true in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood won one-fifth of the vote in elections last year. Veteran foreign correspondent Mary Ann Weaver writes in her book A Portrait of Egypt: “A number of my former professors from the American University of Cairo were Marxists 20 years ago: fairly adamant, fairly doctrinaire Marxists. They are now equally adamant, equally doctrinaire Islamists.” The developments in Egypt are potent for it has long been a leader in the region.

The similarities of communism and Islam are considerable. Both are egalitarian and advocate radical economic change. They both demand a domination of the public space and share a dogmatic, ideological view of the world. Political Islam is also supplying the social services in a collective context that communism promised, and the status of groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah depends on this. Their facilities are often described by locals as superior to those provided by the ruling governments.

Islam also promises to deliver the poor masses from oppression, but there is a difference: instead of the working class rising up against the bourgeoisie, the uprising to be encouraged is by hapless, impoverished Muslims against their oppressive Western masters or puppet Arab leaders. And like communism, Islam believes the collective must be preserved at the expense of the individual. We are social beings first, individuals second. Like communism, Islamism promises a better life for the poor, oppressed and alienated. It is cloaked in God, but its essence is strongly secular. Unless the West fights the war of ideas at this level, offering a competing vision of morality as well as economics and technology, the lure of Islamic extremism will continue to flourish.

http://mensnewsdaily.com/2006/08/13/33621/

Australian PM: 'Disarm Hezbollah'
BBC News - UK
Australian Prime Minister John Howard has said Hezbollah must be disarmed if the UN truce in Lebanon is to last. Mr Howard said ...
See all stories on this topic

Syria still transferring supply of rockets, missiles to Hezbollah
Ha'aretz - Tel Aviv,Israel
Syria continues its efforts to transfer large quantities of war materiel, including rockets, to Lebanon, in an effort to assist Hezbollah in its war against ...
See all stories on this topic

Hezbollah shoots down Israeli helicopter
Houston Chronicle - United States
... Saturday during an expanded offensive in Lebanon, the army said, making it the highest one-day toll for the Jewish state since the war against Hezbollah erupted ...
See all stories on this topic

Origin of Hezbollah totally distorted
San Jose Mercury News - CA, USA
Henri Picciotto's statement that Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon (to stem the PLO) gave rise to Hamas and Hezbollah seems to blame Israel for the existence ...
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Hezbollah rockets hit northern Israel as Cabinet meets to vote on ...
Hindu - Chennai,India
13(AP): Hezbollah guerrillas fired barrages of rockets at northern Israel on Sunday, killing one person and injuring seven others less than 24 hours before a ...
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Hezbollah arms meeting on hold
News24 - South Africa
Beirut - A critical Lebanese cabinet meeting set for Sunday to discuss implementation of the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah has been postponed. ...
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Hezbollah Fires 250 Rockets Into Israel
ABC News - USA
... Hezbollah fired more than 250 rockets into Israel on Sunday, the worst barrage against northern Israel since the fighting began more than a month ago, the army ...
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Hezbollah Leader a Hero to Many Arabs
Town Hall - Washington,DC,USA
Despite the terrible toll in death and destruction in Lebanon, even enemies and critics say the stature of Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, has ...
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Hezbollah gains as Lebanon's leaders struggle
Boston Globe - United States
BEIRUT -- Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah has positioned himself to be a more influential player than ever in the event of an Israeli withdrawal from ...
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Hezbollah gaining strength where democracy once dwelt
Chicago Tribune - United States
... By this, Bush certainly did not mean Israel's 18-year occupation of south Lebanon that created Hezbollah following the 1982 invasion. ...
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Hezbollah rockets kills elderly man
Independent Online - Cape Town,South Africa
Jerusalem - A rocket fired by Lebanese Hezbollah fighters hit a house in northern Israel on Sunday, killing a 70-year-old man, police and medics said. ...

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