Posted on 08/07/2006 3:43:15 PM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT
Tehran & Damascus Move to Lebanon Lebanon-born Walid Phares is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Author of the recent book Future Jihad, he was also one of the architects of 2004’s United Nations resolution 1559, which called for the disarming of Hezbollah. NRO editor Kathryn Lopez recently talked to Phares about what’s going on in the Mideast, what happened to the Cedar Revolution, and this war we’re all in.
Kathryn Jean Lopez: What is “Future Jihad”? Are we seeing it in the Mideast now?
Walid Phares: “Future Jihad,” which has already begun, refers to a new and potent form of Islamic terrorism, characterized by a Khumeinist-Baathist axis. These are the two trees of jihadism, so to speak — the Salafism and Wahabism embodied in al Qaeda and the sort of jihadism led by Iran and also including Syria, Hezbollah, and their allies in Lebanon.
The alliance has not been in entire agreement as to strategy. The al Qaeda branch began its “Future Jihad” in the 1990s; its efforts culminated on 9/11 and have continued explosively since then. The international “Salafists” aimed at the U.S. in the past decade in order to strengthen their jihads on various battlefields (Chechnya, India, Sudan, Algeria, Indonesia, Palestine, etc.). “Weaken the resolve of America,” their ideologues said, “and the jihadists would overwhelm all the regional battlefields.”
As I argue in Future Jihad, bin Laden and his colleagues miscalculated on the timing of the massive attack against the U.S. in 2001. While they wounded America, they didn’t kill its will to fight (as was the case, for instance, in the Madrid 3/11 attacks). I have heard many jihadi cadres online, and have seen al Jazeera commentators on television, offering hints of criticism about the timing. They were blaming al Qaeda for shooting its imagined “silver bullet” before insuring a strategic follow up. But bin Laden and Zawahiri believe 9/11 served them well, and has put a global mobilization into motion. Perhaps it has, but the U.S. counter strategy in the Middle East, chaotic as the region currently appears, has unleashed counter jihadi forces. The jury is still out as to the time factor: when these forces will begin to weaken the jihadists depends on our perseverance and the public understanding of the whole conflict.
The other “tree” of jihadism, with its roots in Iran, withheld fire after 9/11. They were content to watch the Salafists fight it out with the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan and Iraq, not to mention within the West, as terror cells were hunted down. Ahmedinejad, Assad, and Nasrallah were analyzing how far the US would go, and how far the Sunnis and Salafis would go as well.
The fall of the Taliban and of the Baath in Iraq, however, changed Iran and Syria’s patient plans. The political changes in the neighborhood, regardless of their immediate instability, were strongly felt in Tehran and Damascus (but unfortunately not in the U.S., judging from the political debate here), and pushed the Khumeinists and the Syrian Baathists to enter the dance, but carefully. Assad opened his borders to the jihadists in an attempt to crumble the U.S. role in Iraq, while Iran articulated al Sadr’s ideology for Iraq’s Shiia majority.
A U.S.-led response came swiftly in 2004 with the voting of UNSCR 1559, smashing Syria’s role in Lebanon and forcing Assad to withdraw his troops by April 2005. In response, the “axis” prepared for a counter attack on the Lebanese battlefield by assassinating a number of the Cedar Revolution leaders, including MP Jebran Tueni. In short, the attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah and the kidnappings of soldiers were the tip of an offensive aimed at drawing attention away from Iran’s nuclear weapons programs and Syria’s assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri. Hezbollah was awaiting its moment for revenge against the Cedar Revolution too.
What we see now is 1) a Syro-Iranian sponsored offensive aimed at all democracies in the region and fought in Lebanon; 2) Israel’s counter offensive (which it seems to have prepared earlier); and 3) an attempt by Hezbollah to take over or crumble the Lebanese government.
Lopez: So…did the Cedar Revolution fail?
Phares: Actually, it would be more accurate to say that the Cedar Revolution was failed. The masses in Lebanon responded courageously in March 2005 by putting 1.5 million people on the streets of Beirut. They did it without “no-fly-zones,” expeditionary forces, or any weapons at all, for that matter, and against the power of three regimes, Iran, Syria, and pro-Syrian Lebanon, in addition to Hezbollah terror. The “revolution” was for a time astoundingly successful; since then it has been horribly failed, and first of all by Lebanon’s politicians themselves. One of their leaders, General Michel Aoun, shifted his allegiances to Syria and signed a document with Hezbollah. Other politicians from the “March 14 Movement” then stopped the demonstrations, leaving them with the support of God knows what. They failed in removing the pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud and brought back a pro-Syrian politician to serve as a speaker of the house, Nabih Berri. Meanwhile, even as they were elected by the faithful Cedar Revolution masses, they engaged in a round table dialogue with Hezbollah, a clear trap set by Hassan Nasrallah: “Let’s talk about the future,” he said — with the implication, of course, that they forget about the Cedar Revolution and the militia’s disarming. While political leaders sat for months, enjoying the photo ops with Hassan Nasrallah, he was preparing his counter offensive, which he unleashed just a few days before the Security Council would discuss the future of Iran’s nuclear programs.
The Lebanese government of Prime Minister Seniora also abandoned the Cedar Revolution. His cabinet neither disarmed Hezbollah nor called on the U.N. to help in implementing UNSCR 1559. This omission is baffling. The government was given so much support by the international community and, more importantly, overwhelming popular support inside Lebanon: 80 percent of the people were hoping the Cedar Revolution-backed government would be the one to resume the liberation of the country. Now Hezbollah has an upper hand and the government is on the defensive.
The U.S. and its allies can be accused of certain shortcomings as well. While the speeches by the U.S. president, congressional leaders from both parties, Tony Blair, and Jacques Chirac were right on target regarding Lebanon, and while the U.S. and its counterparts on the Security Council were diligent in their follow up on the Hariri assassination and on implementing UNSCR 1559, there was no policy or plan to support the popular movement in Lebanon. Incredibly, while billions were spent on the war of ideas in the region, Lebanese NGOs that wanted to resume the struggle of the Cedar Revolution and fighting alone for this purpose were not taken seriously at various levels. Policy planners thought they were dealing with the “Cedar Revolution” when they were meeting Lebanon’s government and Lebanese politicians. The difference between the high level speeches on Lebanon and the laissez-faire approach from lower levels is amazing. Simply put, there was no policy on supporting the Cedar Revolution against the three regimes opposing it and the $400 million received by Hezbollah from Iran.
The Cedar Revolution was basically betrayed by its own politicians and is now essentially without a head. Nevertheless, as long as the international support remains, the Revolution will find its way and will face the dangers. The one and a half million ordinary citizens who braved all the dangers didn’t change their minds about Hezbollah’s terror. The resistance and counter-attack was to be expected. Unfortunately, thus far Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have outmaneuvered the West and are at the throats of the Cedar Revolution. The international community must revise its plans, and, if it is strongly backed by the U.S. and its allies, including France, the situation can be salvaged. The good seeds are still inside the country.
More at link...
Google Alert - support jihad
Ideals become casualties of war
Sydney Morning Herald - Sydney,New South Wales,Australia
... A report by British intelligence estimates a quarter of the 1.6
million
Muslims living in Britain support jihad at least somewhere in the
world.
...
http://www.smh.com.au/news/paul-sheehan/ideals-become-casualties-of-war/2006/08/13/1155407666922.html
Ordered any pizza lately???
You know the 11 missing Egyptian Muslim "students" who never showed up at Montana State University?
While some of them have been found, Safa Pizza--the Maryland pizza shop where two of them showed up as "employees"--should be a place of interest to federal counterterrorism investigators . . . if it isn't already.
Ditto for its owner, Egyptian Attia Gouda, who was harboring these missing aliens in his Baltimore area apartment. Why isn't ICE arresting him? And why won't the Baltimore Sun name his pizza shop in their article on the 2 students? Attention, reporters: It's Safa Pizza a/k/a Safa's Pizza.
Last October, when officials closed down the Baltimore Fort McHenry and Harbor Tunnels because of an alleged terror plot to blow it up, they arrested several men in connection with the alleged plot on immigration violations. Some of them had maps of the tunnels, etc. Guess where they arrested two of them? Safa Pizza. From a Baltimore Sun account:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1682933/posts
August 13, 2006 Anti-Terrorism News
Iraqi rebels kill 19 as US troops seize Al-Qaeda suspects
http://www.terra.net.lb/wp/Articles/DesktopArticle.aspx?ArticleID=299918&ChannelId=4
Five killed in car bomb attack in Baghdad Saturday
http://english.people.com.cn/200608/13/eng20060813_292655.html
Israel Cabinet Approves Cease Fire - Ministers vote 24-0 with one
abstention
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525861026&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull
At least 120 rockets hit Israel Sunday morning
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525862076&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
UK: Four major terror plots foiled
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/08/13/terror.plot/index.html
(British Terror Plot) Terror plot suspects bugged by MI5 'sneak and
peak' teams
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=400310&in_page_id=1770
UK Terror Plot: Muslim Leaders Speak Out - condemning UK foreign
policy, not condemning terror plot by British Islamists
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=4§ion=0&article=79208&d=13&m=8&y=2006&pix=world.jpg&category=World
(UK) Street unrest feared over terror arrests - UK govt is worried
about waning support of the most influential Muslim groups in Britain
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-2310625,00.html
How the road to terror leads back to Pakistan
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2308063.html
Terrorism pipeline flows to Pakistan
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0608130357aug13,1,7688356.story?coll=chi-news-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true
LeT founder's house arrest not related to terror plot: Pak - Pakistan
official said no connection between airline terror plot and house arrest
of Hafeez Muhammad Sayeed, founder of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET)
http://www.newkerala.com/news4.php?action=fullnews&id=6299
Kidnap Gang in S. Philippines Behead Captive - security forces fight
with Abu Sayyaf Jihadists
http://www.arabnews.com/?page=4§ion=0&article=86057&d=13&m=8&y=2006
India targets homegrown terror cells
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/world/4112282.html
US U-turn on India terror warning - Warning of attack before
Independence Day more “hypothetical†than based on “definite informationâ€
http://www.newkerala.com/news4.php?action=fullnews&id=6299
Analysis: The New Age of Terror
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14323311/
(Russia) Home-Made Bomb Thrown into Synagogue in Russian Khabarovsk
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/08/13/khabarsyn.shtml
Major terror attack averted in southern Russia - Russian security
forces averted strike by Caucasian extremists, killing local warlord and
seizing explosives
http://www.newkerala.com/news4.php?action=fullnews&id=6314
Saturday August 12 PM News
(British Terror Plot) University students at center of terror plots
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=4OFK1X2ENUJWFQFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?xml=/news/2006/08/13/nplot13.xml
(British Terror Plot) Top al-Qaeda trainer 'taught suspects to use
explosive'
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2309309,00.html
British Terror plot: Internet cafes raided
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/08/12/terror.plot/index.html
(British Terror Plot) Intercepted Call From Pakistan Prompted British
Terror Arrests
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,208040,00.html
(British Terror Plot) 2 brothers emerge as focus of plot probe
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060812/ap_on_re_eu/britain_terror_plot;_ylt=AuCY6rInZyvqehjxUniCCbqs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3OTB1amhuBHNlYwNtdHM-
Day of terror strikes was planned for August 16 - United Airline
tickets dated August 16 found at raided address
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=400114&in_page_id=1770&ct=5
Commentary: We should not tolerate the preachers of jihad
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;jsessionid=4OFK1X2ENUJWFQFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?xml=/opinion/2006/08/13/do1304.xml
British Commentator: Muslim anger must be recognised
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;jsessionid=4OFK1X2ENUJWFQFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?xml=/opinion/2006/08/13/do1305.xml
U.S.: 'Do your attacks now' message triggered arrests
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/08/11/terror.details/index.html
Forces to target 4 'hotspots' in Baghdad
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060812/ap_on_re_mi_ea/us_iraq;_ylt=AsjDGrO0JX4BrGN9PbRBnNqs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3b3JuZGZhBHNlYwM3MjE-
Israel to halt war in Lebanon on Monday (updated)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060812/ap_on_re_mi_ea/lebanon_israel;_ylt=A86.I1mtKN5EtQoAoAas0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--
Nine of 11 Missing Egyptian Exchange Students Now in Custody
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,208041,00.html
Analyst sees Iran's fingerprints on Hizbullah attacks on Israel -
Olivier Guitta: "Israel needs to... kill Nasrallah and Mugniyeh...If they
don’t kill those guys, they will regroup and go back to the same kinds
of attacks..."
http://www.njjewishnews.com/njjn.com/081006/sxAnalystSees.html
Fierce fighting in Sri Lanka kills 127 as truce appears in tatters
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060812/wl_asia_afp/srilankaunrest_060812135300;_ylt=Aiu59wAmTh3JO668ZRLdVdOs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3b3JuZGZhBHNlYwM3MjE-
I keep seeing reports of Chavez "helping" Cuba, does he intend to buy it and then make his move on Florida?
I have made arrangements for you to take the bible test for me.
LOL
LR I need a pain pill just reading all that, Oh my goodness. Do take care and don't overdue yourself.
BIG HUGS
DC
Poor baby, you take it easy.
We miss your being here.
You will remain in my prayers.
Secret Service: Woman ignited a small explosive in front of White House
13 AUG 06 | dcbryan1
Posted on 08/13/2006 2:46:41 PM EDT by DCBryan1
Fox News just broke with a "snippet" that a woman (who is in custody) tried to ingite a small explosive, according to Uniformed Secret Service and either place it or throw it at the White House. She was taken into custody.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1682959/posts
Oh, dear, are you attempting to ruin my diet.
Putting jihadi's in my pizza.
No, not lately, but I have hinted at Scott that I need a new pizza supply.
Imagine, what they could do as pizza delivery men, and no links to them.
With the whole country searching for them, why would they take a job?
I don't buy it for a minute.
You are correct on the bottles.
I was thinking of the bottles found in their vehicles, after the blast went off.
Yes, on both yours, the "subway bottles" still make me nervous to think about.
Unfricking believable...30,000
More than 30,000 rally in DC to Defend Lebanon and Palestine! [Acidic SPEW from ANSWER]
email from ANSWER | Sunday, Aug 13, 2006
Posted on 08/13/2006 2:46:43 PM EDT by upchuck
Poster's note: Sorry this is a little messy. Had a hard time getting the email to format properly.
Now, Stand back! It's gonna get nasty!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1682960/posts
Arab View Of War
Arabs and Muslims from Iran, Hizbullah and the PA are celebrating Israel’s acceptance of the UN ceasefire, dubbing it a "surrender" and calling on Arab states to attack the new "weak" Israel.
“After one month of war against Lebanon's resistance, Israelis are the absolute losers and Hizbullah is the absolute winner of the war,” Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamida-Reza Asefi said Sunday. “The occupiers of Jerusalem failed, despite their military, economic, intelligence and diplomatic backings.”
The Iranian official said the Islamic Republic of Iran is “very pleased” with the ceasefire, according to state-run Iranian news agency IRNA. He warned, though, that attacks on Israel would continue as long as “occupation lingers.” He declined to outline whether occupation included retaining sovereignty in regions such as the Galilee – which Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah has termed “settlements” in his wartime addresses. "Let us not forget that as long as there is occupation there is resistance," he added.
Hizbullah central council member Ahmed Barakat told Qatari newspaper al-Watan Sunday, "Today Arab and Muslim society is reasonably certain that the defeat of Israel is possible, and that countdown to the disappearance of the Zionist entity in the region has begun… If a mere organization succeeded in defeating Israel, why would Arab nations not succeed in doing so if they allied? Many Arabs and Muslims viewed Israel in a fictional way and the resistance has succeeded in changing this."
Barakat boasted that none of Hizbullah’s leadership were injured, and that the group still possesses thousands of rockets and other “surprises” for use in the days following the implementation of the UN ceasefire. He added that the remaining missiles and weapons allow Hizbullah to strike Israel from afar and do not require the group to be near Israel’s border.
Photos of Hizbullah-leader Hassan Nasrallah “hang everywhere in Ramallah,” according to Al-Jazeera, “covering the walls and shop fronts and plastered across T-shirts and demonstration banners.” The number-one song in Ramallah this summer, “blaring [repeatedly] out of shops and streets stalls,” is "The Eagle of Lebanon," referring to the Hizbullah chief.
“Secularists, Christians and Muslims alike refer to the Hizbullah leader as Palestine's newest and truest hero,” the Al-Jazeera report states. “Back at Manara square in Ramallah, Waleed Ayyoub is still selling the Nasrallah images to ‘all people of all ages - even little children.’ He is especially proud of a sale made to an Arab-Israeli woman from Haifa, fleeing the Katyusha attacks on her city.
http://yonitheblogger.com/
SUSPECT: I'LL KILL THEM ALL
A PLANE bomb suspect was dubbed the Bucks Bin Laden by neighbours
- and allegedly boasted he wanted to kill all non-Muslims.
BABY BOMB
Iran says disarming Lebanese Hizbollah "illogical"
Cuban newspaper releases first post-surgery pictures of Castro
Britain reveals new terror threats as air bomb probe rumbles on
Fox News reports unusual activity on Syrian-Israel border
Fox News | 08/14/06 | Cammie
Posted on 08/13/2006 3:13:29 PM EDT by cammie
Just saw on Fox that the IDF is monitoring unusual activity on Syrian border in the Golan Heights...tanks there, they are removing land mines at the border...not up on their website yet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1682973/posts
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