7/30 Middle East Live Thread

7/29 Middle East Live Thread ^ | 7/30/06 | BurbankKarl

[BurbankKarl]

Israeli combat soldiers walk along the Israeli northern border with Lebanon. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is pursuing a new round of Middle East diplomacy as the Lebanon conflict moved into its 19th day, with Israel and Hezbollah exchanging firepower and threats in defiance of international moves toward a ceasefire

[jveritas]

I hope so. Sometimes I think all those "contradictory" statements coming from Israel government regarding their war strategy is a big psych op for a major military operation, ground operation, but sometimes I think it is just confused politicians in Israel. I am afraid that Olmert is too weak to fight a war.

[hipaatwo]

From what I heard earlier this evening Israel went back in with bulldozers to level the ground and was also dynamiting buildings.

[conservative in nyc]

That's JOOOOOOOOZ, to most of our ignorant trolls!

This is where Misgav is located (the yellow rectangle to the southeast is Kiryat Shmona):



The Lebanese town of `Udaysah lies about a mile to the west of Misgav.

[jveritas]

I heard that too.

[hipaatwo]

I was surprised when I heard that over 80% of the people in Lebanon approve of what Hez is doing. Who did they poll?

[conservative in nyc]

08:59 Al-Manar: Clashes break out between Hezbollah, IDF in `Taybeh Project` area (AP)

That's probably here on the map, which seems to be on a main road across the border a few miles from Mishgav:

[goldstategop]

The Arabs would like Israel to be bogged down in Lebanon like the Americans are tied down in Iraq. Israel strategy is to go in - destroy Hezbollah strongholds, pullouit and return as necessary. Its a return to the tactics the Haganah used in the pre-statehood days and that Israel used up to the Sinai campaign in 1956: regular raids across the border, killing terrorists at the source and then returning home. If there is no need for a prolonged occupation, more limited measures can do the job. And right now, we know they're working because Hezbollah is being hurt badly despite the defiant rhetoric of its leaders and there's more proof in that the rest of the world is rushing to save it from collapse. If Hezbollah was winning, you can bet no one would be calling for any sort of ceasefire.

(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)

[ScaniaBoy]

I'm sorry, that was yesterday's strategy - and it would have worked if Olmert and his government and the US administration had stood by Bolton's statement: "You can't negotiate a ceasefire with a terror group". (I think he really phrased it as a question.)

From what we heard about the latest meeting between Olmert and Rice it seems almost inevitable that there will be a stop to the Israeli actions within a few days.

Just as Jveritas wrote, Hezbollah will be, and is already, seen as the winner with all what that will entail for the Middle East and the world in general.

At the moment the only thing that is between us and a huge loss in WOT is the Hezbollah themselves. However, I think they are smarter operators than the Palis. They will fire as many rockets as they possibly can the few coming days, and then when the Lebanese government "asks" them they will stop. And then they will have won a huge victory - Lebanon will be theirs for the taking.

I have written a post on my thoughts regarding the wider consequences of this turn of events (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1674150/posts?page=399#399). What I didn't mention was the consequences for Israel.

What we are about to witness is the "Ghettoization" of Israel. With a multinational force on the Lebanese border Israel will no longer be allowed to defend itself against an existential threat. The same will happen in the West Bank and Gaza.

Israel will be forced back to the "suicide borders" of 1967 - and won't even have the possibility to strike back against incursions, for fear of ending up in a military conflict with countries that should have been her allies. Sooner or later there will be a backlash against the Olmert government in Israel, but his policies may then have left whatever new government is formed with a losing hand.

[eeevil conservative]

HEY!

I was on the last thread....feeling neglected...

LOL!

[goldstategop]

What Israel is doing is leveling high observation positions Hezbollah had to see into northern Israel and removing buildings that give terrorists armed with katyushas a bird's eye view of where to shoot. You want to take away enemy assets so they're no longer available for use. And they're probably bringing in equipment to construct a security zone in the parts of Lebanon along the border Israel intends to keep until a multinational force arrives. So any talk of an immediate ceasefire is at best premature.

(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)

[eeevil conservative]

just wonderin'....

but isn't having the Lebanon and French forces on the border about the same as sending a brownie troop?

[hipaatwo]

I PRAY you are wrong.

[Cindy]

Do you think he's eating embassy food or do you think he's moved on?

---

ON THE NET...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=nasrallah

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WxQcWNHmAo

[ScaniaBoy]

So do I, but either Ms Rice and Mr Olmert have been "deceiving" the media big time, or the Hezbollah will scupper a deal because they are trapped by their own oratory - or what I wrote will happen.

[hipaatwo]

Bedtime placeholder

See ya'll later today.

[conservative in nyc]

JPost Israel Alert: Dozens killed as IAF hits southern town of Qana...area was being used by Hezbollah to launch rockets towards Nahariya and other northern Israeli towns.

Qana is fairly far from the Israeli border - probably 8 miles or so. The yellow dot up a bit and to the left is Tyre. There's also a Mazra`at at Tayyibah in the vicinity (at the coastal road around the same latitude) - so the Al Manar-reported fighting could also be in this area.

[Southack]

Cheer up. You've swallowed all of the bad without tasting reality. Things are going much better than how you've imagined.