7/16 Middle East Live Thread

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1666163/posts ^ | 7/16/06 | me

[BurbankKarl]

09:19 MDA: More than 20 people hurt in Katyusha rocket strike in Haifa (Channel 2)

09:16 Residents of Acre, Haifa and its suburbs told to enter bomb shelters (Israel Radio)

09:15 Tenth Katyusha rocket lands in Haifa (Israel Radio)

09:15 Explosions heard in Rosh Hanikra (Israel Radio)

09:11 Katyusha rockets hit Acre and suburbs around Haifa Bay (Channel 2)

09:06 Report: Three to five explosion heard in central Haifa (Israel Radio)

08:47 Chirac: Forces threatening Lebanon`s security, sovereignty must be stopped (AP)

08:41 Sgt. Tal Amgar killed on Navy ship to be buried 16.00 Sun. at Ashdod cemetery (Itim)

08:39 Chirac calls for `show of moderation` in Lebanon, says cease-fire needed (Reuters)

08:37 IDF denies report of air raid on power station south of Beirut (Haaretz)

08:36 Hezbollah says it fought off attempt by IDF ground forces to cross Lebanese border (AP)

08:35 Bush urges Israel `to be mindful of the consequences` of its military actions (AP)

08:19 Jewish man arrested after threatening to stab Palestinians in J`lem`s Old City (Itim)

08:15 Al Manar: Nasrallah to give an interview later Sunday to prove he`s well (Israel Radio)

[CougarGA7]

I dont see a nuclear option by Israel as a neccessity at this point. Israel is more than capable of taking out Syria's military capability with what they have.

I'm not saying that it is not an option, but I think Israel would only go to it as a last resort.

[Tijeras_Slim]

See you're dodging housework too.

[KJC1]

Kind of hard not to kill civilians with terrorists shooting from positions like this: (saw this on another board yesterday)

[SE Mom]

Bingo..Syria mobilzing reserves is a telling moment.

Bob Sellers on FOX now say Merkel says the G8 will make a "Strong announcement" regarding the ME today.

He (Sellers) ALSO made the point that the WTO deal with Russia was a "done deal" going into the G8....now it's a possibility that we are pressuring Russia to come DOWN on Iran in exchange for WTO status...and apparently Putin said no...because Russia is NOT in WTO..and the talk is they won't be for the forseeable future "months at least"....

[oceanview]

Diane Feinstein on CNN now - suggesting Clinton and Bush 41 be sent over to negotiate a cease fire.

[CougarGA7]

Yep. It's momma's day to sleep in so I'm Freeping and keeping the boys preoccupied.

By the way, the wind finally took my tree the rest of the way down. I had to cut it down.

[LdSentinal]

Good idea. We trade Bill Clinton for those two Israeli soldiers.

[RDTF]

barbarians probably gathered those kids to stand there with them

[RasterMaster]

Putin is supplying the terrorists, what does he care about WTO?

[livius]

If the Iranian and Syrian problems had been nipped in the bud decades ago, we wouldn't find ourselves in this predicament.

Bears repeating. And I think the whole objective now should be to take them out immediately so that in another 10 years from now, we won't be standing amidst smoking rubble.

[RDTF]

bwwwaahhhh!

Everyone (including the people in charge) quit their new katrina charity last week due to mishandling of funds

[jeffers]

One puzzle piece, alluded to in our earlier discussion, takes Iran off the board, conventionally, whether they agree or not.

Syria cannot stand without Iran.

Hezbollah cannot stand without Syria.

Topple the central domino and all the rest go by themselves.

Ignore the central pillar, and toppling all the subordinate dominos has no effect.

Help is on the way, at about 33 miles per hour, published.

[Valin]

Israel and Syria dance, and a question for the readers
By TigerHawk at 7/15/2006 07:51:00 PM

http://tigerhawk.blogspot.com/2006/07/israel-and-syria-dance-and-question.html

Stratfor has sent around a "red alert" analysis, and is particularly interesting on two points: Hezbollah's obvious desire for a fight, and the question of Israel's interest in the continuation of the Assad regime.


We are now in the period preceding major conventional operations. Israel is in the process of sealing the Lebanese coast. They have disrupted Lebanese telecommunications, although they have not completely collapsed the structure. Israeli aircraft are attacking Hezbollah's infrastructure and road system. In the meantime, Hezbollah, aware it is going to be hit hard, is in a use-it or-lose-it scenario, firing what projectiles it can into Israel.

The Israeli strategy appears to be designed to do two things. First, the Israelis are trying to prevent any supplies from entering Lebanon, including reinforcements. That is why they are attacking all coastal maritime facilities. Second, they are degrading the roads in Lebanon. That will keep reinforcements from reaching Hezbollah fighters engaged in the south. As important, it will prevent the withdrawal and redeployment of heavy equipment deployed by Hezbollah in the south, particularly their rockets, missiles and launchers. The Israelis are preparing the battlefield to prevent a Hezbollah retreat or maneuver.

Hezbollah's strategy has been imposed on it. It seems committed to standing and fighting. The rate of fire they are maintaining into Israel is clearly based on an expectation that Israel will be attacking. The rocketry guarantees the Israelis will attack. Hezbollah has been reported to have anti-tank and anti-air weapons. The Israelis will use airmobile tactics to surround and isolate Hezbollah concentrations, but in the end, they will have to go in, engage and defeat Hezbollah tactically. Hezbollah obviously knows this, but there is no sign of disintegration on its part. At the very least, Hezbollah is projecting an appetite for combat. Sources in Beirut, who have been reliable to this point, say Hezbollah has weapons that have not yet been seen, such as anti-aircraft missiles, and that these will be used shortly. Whatever the truth of this, Hezbollah does not seem to think its situation is hopeless.

The uncertain question is Syria. No matter how effectively Israel seals the Lebanese coast, so long as the Syrian frontier is open, Hezbollah might get supplies from there, and might be able to retreat there. So far, there has been only one reported airstrike on a Syrian target. Both Israel and Syria were quick to deny this.

What is interesting is that it was the Syrians who insisted very publicly that no such attack took place. The Syrians are clearly trying to avoid a situation in which they are locked into a confrontation with Israel. Israel might well think this is the time to have it out with Syria as well, but Syria is trying very hard not to give Israel casus belli. In addition, Syria is facilitating the movement of Westerners out of Lebanon, allowing them free transit. They are trying to signal that they are being cooperative and nonaggressive.

The problem is this: While Syria does not want to get hit and will not make overt moves, so long as the Syrians cannot guarantee supplies will not reach Hezbollah or that Hezbollah won't be given sanctuary in Syria, Israel cannot complete its mission of shattering Hezbollah and withdrawing. They could be drawn into an Iraq-like situation that they absolutely don't want. Israel is torn. On the one hand, it wants to crush Hezbollah, and that requires total isolation. On the other hand, it does not want the Syrian regime to fall. What comes after would be much worse from Israel's point of view.

This is the inherent problem built into Israel's strategy, and what gives Hezbollah some hope. If Israel does not attack Syria, Hezbollah could well survive Israel's attack by moving across the border. No matter how many roads are destroyed, Israel won't be able to prevent major Hezbollah formations moving across the border. If they do attack Syria and crush al Assad's government, Hezbollah could come out of this stronger than ever.

Judging from the airstrikes in the past 24 hours, it would appear Israel is trying to solve the problem tactically, by degrading Lebanese transport facilities. That could increase the effectiveness of the strategy, but in the end cannot be sufficient. We continue to think Israel will choose not to attack Syria directly and therefore, while the invasion will buy time, it will not solve the problem. Hezbollah certainly expects to be badly hurt, but it does not seem to expect to be completely annihilated. We are guessing, but our guess is that they are reading Israel's views on Syria and are betting that, in the long run, they will come out stronger. Of course, Israel knows this and therefore may have a different plan for Syria. At any rate, this is the great unknown in this campaign.

So here's a question for our smart readers, the answer to which genuinely baffles me: Is it actually in Israel's interest for the Assad regime to fall, or would Israel be better off with the weakened Ba'athists in power than the alternatives? If Assad were to fall, what are the alternatives in Syria? Are they truly "much worse," as Stratfor says, from Syria's point of view?

Fire away.

[Pox]

Israel has given Syria a 72 hour ultimatum to stop Hezbollah’s activity, according to London-based Arabic language newspaper Al-Hayat and a senior source in the United States Pentagon or else Israel "would launch an offensive with disastrous consequences.". The ultimatum also included the release of kidnapped IDF troops. Israel stated that if such a situation did not come about, they may attack targets within Syria.

I'm sorry, this still does not seem to be a credible ultimatum outside of the likely IDF assault on southern Lebanon. Israel is already known to be considering such an assault, and it would not necessitate any ultimatum to Syria for that to happen.

Attacking Syrian targets in Syria would be a significant escalation that would pull in Iran and possibly other mideast countries. I see no signs at this juncture that would necessitate a strike in Syria.

[DCPatriot]

I watched little old ladies in their 80's walking with canes all hunched over...or pushing carts piled high with all their possessions...none of which were contained AK47's.

Quite sad IMO. I don't know where they get the will to live under such conditions.

[RouxStir]

No doubt, Israel can take care of Syria. The Syrian military is about as adept as the Wal-Mart Parking Lot Security Force. Iran is the real problem. Iran has orchestrated this scenario. They have been itching to destroy Israel. Even if they cease this attempt, they will try again and again, until they succeed or until someone destroys Iran.

[SE Mom]

Bwwaaahhhhhhhaaaaaaaaa.

Coming from Feinstein that is JUST hilarious.

I love the way the libs try to dig up "respectable" solutions...knowing FULL WELL they will never be considered. It's a clever ploy.

From the G8- statement saying....Demand that Israeli soldiers be released immediately, safely- that Hizbullah cease attacking Israel. After that- that Israel should stop too:)

[Fitzcarraldo]

Syria cannot stand without Iran.

Why is this so? I'd think Syria would welcome the chance to sever its ties, if it could do so without causing an internal revolt. They seem to be caught uncomfortably in the middle of Israel and Iran.

[OKIEDOC]

During 9-11, I was still living in South America.

The first few days after the murder of three thousand citizens, we got the regular CNN Democrat House Organ.

The coverage was somewhat patriotic.

After about three days, CNN coverage switched to CNN International the Communist branch of CNN.

All of the Americans in the local chamber of commerce wrote a letters to the local cable operator complaining about the biased coverage.

CNN International continually had on Arabs condemning America and even blatantly floated the idea that the destruction was brought on to New York City because of American citizen’s immorality and its place of power in the world.

Eventually in 2004, Fox News replaced the sorry coverage of CNN International.

Listening to CNN and especially CNN International, gives most listeners a bad case of “Kennedy’s Dyschezia - A condition where listening to Murdering Ted for more than a few seconds’ causes the inability to control the pelvic and anal muscles. Often identified with butt puckering”.