Supposedly "Vulnerable" GOP Cong. Districts

Mailer from J.D. Hayworth | 5/12/06 | LS

[LS]

J.D. Hayworth sent out a request for funds, and in it was a map from the WaPo of "Democratic Contenders," ranked according to three tiers: Tier 1, "Dem considered a strong threat to the incumbent," Tier 2, "races in GOP-leaning districts that play to the strength of the Dem," and Tier 3, "Swing districts where Dems should have recruited stronger candidates." (Note the incredible bias: not "Districts in which Republicans could have recruited stronger candidates." Oh well).

I wanted Freeper input on the accuracy of these races, and whether, indeed, these are as "competitive" as the Wa Compost thinks. In Tier 1 we have:

NM 1, Heather Wilson (R) vs. State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid

IN 8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth

FL 22, Clay Shaw, Jr., (R) vs. State Sen. Ron Klein

PA 6, Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Law prof. Louis Murphy

CT 4, Chris Shays (R) vs. selectwoman Diane Farrell

In Tier 2 we have:

NY 20, John Sweeney (R) vs. Atty Kirsten Gillibrand

AZ 5, J. D. Hayworth (R) vs. former mayoer Harry Mitchell

CT 5, Nancy Johnson (R) vs. State SEn. Christopher Murphy

OH 15, Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Franklin Co. COmmissioner Mary Kilroy

OH 1, Steve Chabot (R) vs. Cincy City Council member John Cranley

Tier 3 consists of:

PA 8, Michael Fizpatrick (R) vs. Iraq vet Pat Murphy

KY 3, Anne Northrup (R) vs Iraq vet Andrew Horne

NE 3, Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen

WA 8, David G. Reichert v. Darcy Burner

NH 2, Charles Bass vs. Paul Hodes

In addition, the Compost ran three "clear recruiting failures," PA 15 (Charles Dent, R, incumbent), IO 4 (Tom Latham, R incumbent), and AZ 1, (Rick Renzi, R, incumbent).

FREEPERS: If you are in these districts or know anything about these races, please register your view of how serious the "challenge" is. For ex., Chabot is in the district next to mine. I can't fathom that he is in trouble in any way, shape, or form. I don't know about Deborah Pryce's district, however.

[jmaroneps37]

Naming the vulnerable Democrats


The magic number for a Democrat take over of the House is a net pick up of 15 seats. If you think the Democrats will win those 15 seats I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to talk to you about.


Here are the Democrat House members who are in danger.


Brad Miller, won with 59% in North Carolina, but has a few pro illegal and anti family far left positions that will be a problem against a strong conservative Black Republican.


John Barrow, won with 52% in Georgia one of the strongest Republican states in the country.

Jim Marshall won with 63% in Ga., but has called for Bush's impeachment if reelected. Putting the president's political life on the line could be a problem in Ga.



Chet Edwards, won with 51% in Texas as state that has been increasingly hostile to Democrats.

Stephanie Herseth, won with 53% by default in South Dakota, a strong Republican state.


Charlie Melancon, won with 50% in Louisiana a fairly strong Republican state.


Melissa Bean, won with 52% in Illinois and has been identified by the Democrats themselves as one of their most vulnerable members.

Alan B. Mollohan West Virginia. Yes he was reelected with 68%, but he is quickly becoming the Justice Department’s poster boy for corrupt Congressmen. He will have big trouble explaining away an 11 million dollar improvement in his personal wealth since 2000. Micheal Barone's Almananac of American Politics rates his district as a GOP +6. If Mollohan resigns, this should be a Republican pick up.

[LS]

Thanks. Very, very helpful.

[untwist]

I agree. You know, Clay Shaw's seat and I would think most of these seats is in presumed danger mostly because the media says they are. We in S. Florida are in an economic boom right now and what we need is more promotion of this.

I think Tony Snow will be a very important man in the next 6 months as will of course Rove and Mehlman. The story overall is very good and needs to get out. When they get to issues like taxes, Shaw is very positive and Klein will only favor more taxation and depressive actions. All this in a state that is a major hurricane target. Things have been managed very well over the past couple of years and Shaw has been visible locally in helping out. The more I think of it the harder I think it will be for the democrats to make significant gains if any at all. But the White House and RNC has to turn the communications machine on.

[acsrp38]

NE 3, Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen

No way!!! I could run in that district -- all you need is an (R) behind your name. Land of Virginia Smith and Terry Carpenter

[acsrp38]

NE 3, Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen

This is an open seat-- Dr Tom Osborne's seat -- he just lost the NE Gov primary

[darkangel82]

CT 4, Chris Shays (R) vs. selectwoman Diane Farrell

This one wouldn't be much of a change if Shays loses, since he is a Democrat in all but name.

[HostileTerritory]

Nope, that's a mix-up of postal abbreviations. They really mean NV-3, in Nevada.

NE-3 is as safe as it gets.

[HostileTerritory]

You can't just look at the state. Both Brad Miller and John Barrow represent Democrat-leaning districts despite residing in Republican-leaning states. Neither of them is likely at risk this year, and Vernon Robinson is not generally taken seriously.

I don't think Herseth drew a Republican challenger, amazingly enough.

The others you listed are all vulnerable this year unless the Democrats do extremely well nationwide.

[acsrp38]

OK

[Clintonfatigued]

In the Indiana 8th. District, John Hostettler is in serious trouble. He faces his strongest opponent ever and there are even local Republicans who are becoming tired of him.

The next-door 9th. District is also in the first tier of races. Congressman Mike Sordel barely unseated Baron Hill in 2004 and faces a rematch. However, I predict that Sordel will survive, albeit narrowly.

I regret to say that I don't think that Hostettler will be back.

[LS]

Agreed, but remember, the MSM won't play it that way. Heck we could lose Specter, Chaffee, Shays, and Snowe and the MSM would claim it's a blow to "conservatives":)

[LS]

Agree, it's VERY district sensitive. In CA, I remember when they districted the GOP district around USCB, right down the beach, so as to not put the liberal college kiddies in a dominant GOP district. Cong. Bob Lagermarsino said he could not walk his district a high tide ;)

[cgbg]

Shays and Johnson (Rinos) CT both won by more than ten points last time and have served many terms as incumbents. They both have huge war chests. They have been feeding their districts pork by the truck-load, and they have excellent constituent services.

I would be stunned if either of these incumbents lost.

[iowamark]

Iowa CD1:

The primary is on June 6. There are 3 strong GOP candidates:
Bill Dix, State Rep.
Brian Kennedy, former state GOP chairman and chief of staff to Gov. Branstad
Mike Whalen, founder and CEO, Heart of America restaurants

The likely Dem candidate is trial lawyer Bruce Braley of Waterloo. The race will be competitive but the GOP has a good chance.

Also competitive is IA3, where incumbent Dem Leonard Boswell is in poor health and poor financial shape, and facing a strong and well funded challenge from State Senate president Jeff Lamberti.

I could mention another possible GOP pickup across the river in IL CD17 where Dem Lane Evans is retiring. It's a Dem district but John Kerry only won with 53% in 2004. The primary has passed so Dem party bosses are going to pick a candidate.

[HostileTerritory]

Shays only won 52%-48% last time.

[Seattle Conservative]

So true. I posted one some time ago that IIRC it showed all vulnerable seats - searched for it yesterday, but couldn't find it (must have been longer ago than I remembered!)

[Seattle Conservative]

Thanks for the additional info, Jack!

[Seattle Conservative]

J.D. Hayworth is one of my favorites, and, as you say, he's been out in front on illegal immigration - - I just couldn't see the good voters of AZ voting him out. I think Sen Kyl is great, too. Now, you're other Sen leaves a bit to be desired, but who am I to talk since we have 2 of the dimmest bulbs in the Senate representing our state:
Maria Can't-vote-well and Patty Osama Mama Murray

[LS]

Thanks. Is Latham in IO 4 safe in your opinion?

[BlackRazor]

Again, I'm not at all questioning their OVERALL accuracy, which to me is irrelevant, but their ability to get the tight races.

That's fine, and that's kind of why I provided the link to their database. So you could check it out yourself.

But I would caution you that polls aren't intended to be absolute predictions of winners and losers. They are measurements, and those measurements have limitations. If a poll predicted Thune would win 51-49, and he actually loses 51-49, the poll was not wrong. It was, in fact, extremely accurate, and well within the margin of error. We cannot expect polls to be more precise than the MOE allows. It's simply not realistic.