Supposedly "Vulnerable" GOP Cong. Districts

Mailer from J.D. Hayworth | 5/12/06 | LS

[LS]

J.D. Hayworth sent out a request for funds, and in it was a map from the WaPo of "Democratic Contenders," ranked according to three tiers: Tier 1, "Dem considered a strong threat to the incumbent," Tier 2, "races in GOP-leaning districts that play to the strength of the Dem," and Tier 3, "Swing districts where Dems should have recruited stronger candidates." (Note the incredible bias: not "Districts in which Republicans could have recruited stronger candidates." Oh well).

I wanted Freeper input on the accuracy of these races, and whether, indeed, these are as "competitive" as the Wa Compost thinks. In Tier 1 we have:

NM 1, Heather Wilson (R) vs. State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid

IN 8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth

FL 22, Clay Shaw, Jr., (R) vs. State Sen. Ron Klein

PA 6, Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Law prof. Louis Murphy

CT 4, Chris Shays (R) vs. selectwoman Diane Farrell

In Tier 2 we have:

NY 20, John Sweeney (R) vs. Atty Kirsten Gillibrand

AZ 5, J. D. Hayworth (R) vs. former mayoer Harry Mitchell

CT 5, Nancy Johnson (R) vs. State SEn. Christopher Murphy

OH 15, Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Franklin Co. COmmissioner Mary Kilroy

OH 1, Steve Chabot (R) vs. Cincy City Council member John Cranley

Tier 3 consists of:

PA 8, Michael Fizpatrick (R) vs. Iraq vet Pat Murphy

KY 3, Anne Northrup (R) vs Iraq vet Andrew Horne

NE 3, Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen

WA 8, David G. Reichert v. Darcy Burner

NH 2, Charles Bass vs. Paul Hodes

In addition, the Compost ran three "clear recruiting failures," PA 15 (Charles Dent, R, incumbent), IO 4 (Tom Latham, R incumbent), and AZ 1, (Rick Renzi, R, incumbent).

FREEPERS: If you are in these districts or know anything about these races, please register your view of how serious the "challenge" is. For ex., Chabot is in the district next to mine. I can't fathom that he is in trouble in any way, shape, or form. I don't know about Deborah Pryce's district, however.

[kaktuskid]

The loss of either the House or the Senate is a self-inflicted wound by the RINOcrats for failing to stay in touch with their public. They have wondered off the path into liberalism and are lost in the wilderness. If they lose control of the Congress, the last two years of the Bush era will be worthless, less than now. The republicans do not deserve conservatives votes. They have completely forgotten conservatives with their big government spending and failures on the border issues. We, the people, will suffer for their incompetence.



So you like stabbing the military in the back then?

[MikeA]

I thought I noticed a couple others as well. By the way, if you have any further questions after reading through that, e-mail Chuck Todd at the e-mail address shown at the bottom. I asked him about a couple House races here in California and one in Utah and he answered me right away giving me his analysis of each.

[RetiredArmy]

Get a life pal. I'll take the military over ANY politician any day. NOTHING in my comment even comments on that. Your pulling something out of your back side.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Here's Shaw's district as it looks now:

[Jack Ian]

Clay Shaw also is high up on the House Ways and Means committee, which will be used against Klein because if he were to win Klein would be a rookie with crappy seat assignments.

[Jack Ian]

Seattle Conservative, thanks for the summary but there are many flaws. Remember the top of the Ticket on these races also.

1. AZ- Jon Kyl coattails secures Hayworth reelection
2. Patricia Madrid, NM Democrat is being implicated in Statewide scandals.
3. CT-Simmons, Johnson, and Shays benefit from Governor Jodi Rell's huge relection. These 3 are all battle tested warriors and will win.
4. Tammy Duckworth is a joke and too liberal for this strong GOP district. She is known as a Chicago puppet.
5. Clay Shaw brings home the Bacon.
6. Bilbray wins because Busby is a liberal college Professor who will vote to raise taxes in this wealthy California GOP district.
7. Indiana-richard Lugar is running unopposed with a 70% approval which carries in Hostettler and Sodrel. Baron Hill is pro Gay rights.

[Jack Ian]

Jim Marshall(D-GA), lost his seat to Mac Collins this week, after saying he would vote to impeach Bush.

Melissa Bean (D-IL), is toast in this heavy GOP district.

Allan Mollohan(D-WVA) will be indicted by the FEDS and will resign resulting in a GOP pickup.

John Spratt(D-SC) will lose in this heavy GOP area after sleeping with Nancy Pelosi for years.

Just to name a Few RATS who will lose folks.

[SCHROLL]

Don't think Spratt is going to lose. I've seen him re-elected too many times.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

That'd be sweet if Spratt lost, but can his opponent successfully tie him to Pelosi? Spratt's numbers fell in the 1994 elections, but he's bounced back since.

[Jack Ian]

Schroll, the thing we have to remember here is that none of this means anything until after Labor day. At that time Karl Rove and Mehlman will go into high gear and these bogus Generic Congressional will tighten up. NANCY PELOSI will be the major focus of these elections, She will be front and center as a Liberal San Francisco pro gay rights, anti military, marxist she is. She is a horrible speaker who was embarrassed by Tim Russert on "Meet the Press" last Sunday. In swing districts like Kentucky, Indiana,etc.. She will made the Bogeyman along with Conyers, Socialist Bernie Sanders, McKinney etc.....

[WOSG]

Hill, 52, who represented the district from 1999 to 2004, said he decided to run after seeing families in the district struggle under Republican leadership. "I do not like the direction the country is moving in right now," said Hill, who has worked for a Washington consulting firm but has been focused on another run. "The administration and others talk about this economic recovery, but people in the 9th District are not feeling it."

So, he doesnt like the 4% growth in GDP last quarter, the 5 million new jobs in last 3 years, the amazing productivity growth. ... never fear, the Democrat prescription of higher taxes, more regulation, eco-extremism, political correctness, affirmative action, no domestic energy supplies, and obstruction of tort and other reform will surely cure our strong economy!

[digger48]

One problem, Sodrel doesn't have a politicians voice and rhetoric. Very, very successful businessman, but to hear him talk on the radio every Monday morning on Greg Garrisons radio show, doesn't exactly wow you with words.

With increasingly ignorant voter rolls, rhetoric may carry the day.

[WOSG]

"The loss of either the House or the Senate is a self-inflicted wound by the RINOcrats for failing to stay in touch with their public. They have wondered off the path into liberalism and are lost in the wilderness. If they lose control of the Congress, the last two years of the Bush era will be worthless, less than now."

This is true.

" The republicans do not deserve conservatives votes."
This is UNtrue, completely.

There has been a LOT of good things from the Republican majority and President: Tax cuts, better judges, better GWOT handling.

See my tagline. Let's do our duty and not undermine the war on terror by letting feckless Democrats waltz in simply because RINOs have prevented fiscal discipline and better handling of some issues... We conservatives could, and will, do a lot worse if Democrats gain the upper hand.

[LS]

Ain't gonna happen. That's precisely the point of this, to identify not only what the press is so orgasmic about ("GOP vulnerabilities") but to illuminate DEM vulnerabilities. Almost anyone realizes the Dems can't win the House. Not only would they have to win 8 of the 15 supposedly "vulnerable" seats, but they'd also have to hold every single one of their other supposedly non-vulnerable seats.

And the GOP is poised to ADD a seat (or two, or even three) in the Senate.

[jerry639]

IN 8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth

My feeling is that Hostettler will be in for a tough campaign but he will win.

9th District IN, Mike Sodrel (R) will need lots of money and lots of help to defeat Baron Hill. This will be a hard fought campaign. I will be doing a lot of work for Sodrel's campaign.

[LS]

Again, I'm not at all questioning their OVERALL accuracy, which to me is irrelevant, but their ability to get the tight races.

[LS]

Let me add that the site noted above in #51 cites a "weakness" as Chris Shays' "quick" endorsement of Joe Lieberman. I don't see that as a weakness at all. Lieberman is extremely popular, even with the kook base. Shays is playing both sides. He isn't my favorite guy, but I can't see him having any trouble.

[jerry639]

There is a big split in Scott County amongst the Democrats.
So, this just might be helpful to Sodrel. Dims out number Reps. by 4 to 1 in this county.

[LS]

What I am seeing from those of you who posted so far is that:

Renzi and Hayworth probably aren't in any trouble at all;

I know Chabot isn't in trouble, and Johnson and Pryce seem safe.

Hostettler and Sodrel in IN seem to be in tough races; Shaw is vulnerable, as is Gerlach. NC-1 is a likely loss unless the party boots Taylor. Figure we lose 4/5 of those.

There is some debate on whether Spratt is vulnerable, but we'll say no; Mollohan is a scum, but likely won't be replaced with a Pubbie even if in jail; Marshall is a loss, and Bean is in trouble. So that's 2/5.

So right now, we are looking at a net loss of two or, at worst, three.

This, however, requires every other Dem to hold and every open seat to go Dem, or they will actually LOSE seats.

Anyone have a guesstimate on Northrup in KY or Porter in Nevada?

[kaktuskid]

Arizona's 5th and 8th: Republican former State House Whip Randy Graf, who drew 43% against veteran Rep. Jim Kolbe (R.-Ariz.) in the 2004 primary, is the likely GOP nominee for the Tucson-area 8th District seat Kolbe is relinquishing. But Graf's pro-life and anti-illegal immigration views do not sit well with old foe Kolbe and his allies, so the chances of Democratic State Sen. Gabriel Gifford's picking up the seat have improved. In the 5th District, the Democratic candidate, former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell, may give a tough fight to Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who has broken with the Bush Administration on immigration.

They don't understand Arizona...Graf is running in a district that is ground zero for illegal immigration, and is a district that is more conservative than party affiliation shows. Hayworth has been out in front on border control, the district is majority R, and his opposition is a Donk party hack whose claim to fame is being a mayor of a college town whose greatest ambition was to close the primary airport in the Phoenix area.

And border control is the main issue in this state.