Supposedly "Vulnerable" GOP Cong. Districts

Mailer from J.D. Hayworth | 5/12/06 | LS

[LS]

J.D. Hayworth sent out a request for funds, and in it was a map from the WaPo of "Democratic Contenders," ranked according to three tiers: Tier 1, "Dem considered a strong threat to the incumbent," Tier 2, "races in GOP-leaning districts that play to the strength of the Dem," and Tier 3, "Swing districts where Dems should have recruited stronger candidates." (Note the incredible bias: not "Districts in which Republicans could have recruited stronger candidates." Oh well).

I wanted Freeper input on the accuracy of these races, and whether, indeed, these are as "competitive" as the Wa Compost thinks. In Tier 1 we have:

NM 1, Heather Wilson (R) vs. State Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid

IN 8, John Hostettler (R) vs. Sheriff Brad Ellsworth

FL 22, Clay Shaw, Jr., (R) vs. State Sen. Ron Klein

PA 6, Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Law prof. Louis Murphy

CT 4, Chris Shays (R) vs. selectwoman Diane Farrell

In Tier 2 we have:

NY 20, John Sweeney (R) vs. Atty Kirsten Gillibrand

AZ 5, J. D. Hayworth (R) vs. former mayoer Harry Mitchell

CT 5, Nancy Johnson (R) vs. State SEn. Christopher Murphy

OH 15, Deborah Pryce (R) vs. Franklin Co. COmmissioner Mary Kilroy

OH 1, Steve Chabot (R) vs. Cincy City Council member John Cranley

Tier 3 consists of:

PA 8, Michael Fizpatrick (R) vs. Iraq vet Pat Murphy

KY 3, Anne Northrup (R) vs Iraq vet Andrew Horne

NE 3, Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen

WA 8, David G. Reichert v. Darcy Burner

NH 2, Charles Bass vs. Paul Hodes

In addition, the Compost ran three "clear recruiting failures," PA 15 (Charles Dent, R, incumbent), IO 4 (Tom Latham, R incumbent), and AZ 1, (Rick Renzi, R, incumbent).

FREEPERS: If you are in these districts or know anything about these races, please register your view of how serious the "challenge" is. For ex., Chabot is in the district next to mine. I can't fathom that he is in trouble in any way, shape, or form. I don't know about Deborah Pryce's district, however.

[LS]

Yeah, I know all about standard deviations and all that jazz. That's still no reason to trust polls. My experience has been that even those that supposedly are "accurate" are wrong for MOST of the election cycle, then do some hasty adjustments at the end to be "correct." But that is ignoring their real purpose, which is, I think, to SHAPE public opinion rather than report it. See a book called "Mobocracy" about the abuses of polls.

I have taken several polls, including, in 2004, a Mason-Dixon poll. Even MD, a very accurate poll, asked loaded questions. It had me rank issues in order of how important I thought they were, and "Iraq" and "War on Terror" were separate. Well, when I saw the results of this, predictably, "the economy" or something else was the "top issue," but if you COMBINED "Iraq" and "War on Terror" as I thought more realistic, by far it was the most important issue. But this allowed the Dems to say that their platform on the economy was what "people were interested in."

[iowamark]

Tom Latham is very safe.

[Republican Wildcat]

I don't think Andrew Horne has a lock on the Dem nomination. John Yarmuth has been running more ads for a longer period of time.

[RetiredArmy]

You can believe what you like, but THIS conservative is not GIVING his vote to anyone that is a RINOcrat, just as bad as a democrat in my opinion. But, maybe even WORSE in that they try to hide in the conservative movement with their liberal views.

[RetiredArmy]

We shall see in November I guess.

[WOSG]

"You can believe what you like"

It was not a matter of opinion, I was just citing the many conservative things that HAVE been accomplished by the Republicans in Congress.

"THIS conservative is not GIVING his vote to anyone that is a RINOcrat"

The Republicans I will be voting for in November, Congressman Lamar Smith, Gov Rick Perry, Sen Kay Bailey Hutchison, have conservative records and deseve Republican support for sure.

I dont live in Maine or Rhode Island or in other RINO habitat, so I dont have that dilemma that some have.

Your mileage may vary.

[RetiredArmy]

I was just citing the many conservative things that HAVE been accomplished by the Republicans in Congress.

We are obviously not talking about the SAME Congress. You must be watching old CSPAN from about 1776 or something. Let's see, pork road and farms bills, pork prescription drugs bill, pork, pork, pork, spending, spending, spending MORE THAN ANY LIBERAL DEMOCRAT EVER HAS SPENT. Nope, we OBVIOUSLY are not watching the same Congress in action.

[iowamark]

BTW, Here is the Washington Post graphic referred to in your email:

WP 4/13/06 “Democratic Contenders”

I am not sure why they call IA4 a “swing district.” Tom Latham has been in congress since 1994. He was re-elected in 2004 with 64% of the vote.

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

Unless Hayworth has made a major mistake in the last year, which I doubt, he has no fear from Mitchell. His district includes Mormon strongholds in Mesa. He has only grown more popular since he was elected and is a staunch Republican and a great campaigner. I'm sure his war-chest is stocked, too, in a state where Dems have a hard time raising money. They only won the governorship with a small plurality in a three-way race back in 2002, due to a Rino challenger to Matt Salmon running on "Clean Elections" law money.

[holyscroller]

"Beating a sherriff will be a bigger task."

Ours (Dave Reichert, the sheriff who caught the Green River Killer,) is about to be beaten. The Dems told us he was a Dem, before he ran the first time, but he ran as a Republican so we voted for him. One term told us we should have listened. The guy's a Dem in sheriff's clothing. He's about to be a one-termer.

[Always Right]

The problem is this guy is the sheriff where many of the GOP votes come from and he is fairly popular. This distric swings with just a shift of a few hundred votes. Hostettler is in real danger, unfortunately. John tends to be a real Constitutionalists and sometimes is one of only 5 or 6 people to vote against something on those principles, and that type of perspective will be missed if he loses.