Pacific island nations eye China's rise

TOKYO, March 27 (UPI) -- China's insatiable appetite for energy and natural resources, and its desire to secure the sea lanes through which such resources are transported, are propelling the country's outreach to even the smallest of the Pacific Islands, leaders from the island nations heard last week at a convention in Tokyo.

China's determination to undermine Taiwan's influence in the South Pacific is prompting generous assistance in infrastructure projects, such as building sports complexes in Fiji and Kiribati, and providing cargo ships to Vanuatu.

Representatives from 22 island nations gathered in Tokyo at the Asia-Pacific Island Nations Summit from March 19-23 to discuss ways of partnering to address their common vulnerabilities. They included tiny islands like Niue -- 100 square miles in area, with a population of around 2,100 -- Vanuatu, Kiribati and Palau, as well as their larger neighbors, the Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand and the host country, Japan.

Sponsored by the Universal Peace Federation, the conference explored the viability of a closer alliance between island nations to protect their natural resources and cultural heritage while promoting sustainable development.

High on the list of concerns was the withdrawal from the islands of interest and investment from their traditional powerful allies -- the United States, Australia and New Zealand -- while China is rushing in to fill the void with offers of aid and trade.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao will arrive in Fiji next week, where the first China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development and Cooperation Forum will open on April 5. Heads of state of six island nations will travel to Fiji to meet Wen, who is bringing along more than 200 Chinese businessmen whose interests include fishing, agriculture and tourism.

China offered the Fiji government $1.7 million to sponsor the forum, and the country has received up to $13 million in grants from China so far this year, the Taipei Times reported Friday, citing a Foreign Ministry official.

"At the end of the day it's a matter of survival," said Taito Waradi, President of the Fiji Chamber of Commerce and Industry, who has been involved in preparations for the Chinese visit. "If the United States, Australia and New Zealand are not prepared to offer investment, market access and employment -- and the Chinese are -- political philosophy is not a major consideration."

China is heavily engaged in fishing in the South Pacific, and is also interested in mineral deposits and forestry resources in some of the larger islands. Also important is protecting the sea lanes through which cargo ships travel from Latin American and Africa, where China has been actively making deals to secure energy and other resources to fuel its voracious economic growth.

China has also actively courted even the smallest islands in an effort to undercut Taiwan's influence in the region. Among 14 island nations belonging to the regional Pacific Island Forum, other than Australia and New Zealand, six have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, eight with China. Top officials of all eight have been invited to Beijing since 2004.

The United States has only four embassies in the South Pacific islands, excluding Australia and New Zealand, plus two online "virtual embassies."

"China is the most active foreign government in the Seychelles," said James Mancham, founding president of the island nation in the Indian Ocean, which lies on the sea route between Africa and China. "The Americans have a short-term policy. The Chinese have continuity, strategy and their own plan ... they attach great importance to the maritime route."

Islands are also of immense value in times of military conflict, Mancham pointed out, serving as "unsinkable aircraft carriers" and supply bases.

It is Beijing's military intentions that most worry Japan as it warily watches China's growing influence in the Pacific. China has the world's largest army, with 2.3 million personnel. The country's official defense budget is set to rise 14.7 percent, to more than $35 billion this year. U.S. and Japanese defense officials suspect the actual expenditure is much higher.

"It's important for China to abandon its China-centric thought, that China is the center of the world, to maintain peace in this region," said Dr. Tatsuo Sato, chairman of the Cabinet Committee in Japan's House of Representatives. "It's important for China to make its defense budget more transparent, otherwise China will raise the suspicions of the island nations."

A meeting in Sydney earlier this month between U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso and Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer, who discussed China's military build-up, sent alarm bells ringing throughout the islands, conference participants said.

Although in public statements the three said China had a constructive role to play in the Asia-Pacific region, their shared concern about Beijing's "opaque" military budget was clear.

Dr. Vincent Siew, former premier of Taiwan, said that China recognizes the attention its economic growth and military build-up have attracted, and its "peaceful rise" policy is designed to allay fears of hegemonic intentions.

"The suspicion is still there, however," he said. "China is competing with the United States, but the U.S. is pre-occupied in the Middle East and not paying much attention to Asia. If you look at the U.S. presence 20 years ago and now, you have the impression that America is losing influence and interest in the region."

Conference participants agreed that collective and cooperative action was in their best interest in dealing with their larger neighbors, both in protecting their resources and in developing opportunities.

Among ideas put forth was that of imposing a tax on cruise ships that visit the islands, negatively impacting the environment while barely benefiting the economy. Rules on protecting ocean resources, including fish, should also be consistent, they suggested.

"The islands should join as one group," said George Varughese, councilor at the Sydney University Center for Peace and Conflict Studies. "They should be vigilant and not go into an open market situation. Once the economy is in (foreign) hands, they are in control."

The islands will always be vulnerable, to the whims of nature, like the 2004 tsunami that swept away whole villages; to human carelessness, like the global warming that creates rising seas threatening to overflow small islands; to human greed, like the depletion of forestry and fish resources.

"We live where we can see the sunrise and sunset, and contemplate the moon. We are not poor, we are rich," Mancham commented. "We pray to God that the only oil we ever discover on our islands is coconut oil. The day we discover the real thing our independence is over."

Not to worry, we have a two ocean, cutting edge, Navy with nothing to do. China has a brown water navy that can't even display its presence beyond 70 miles of its coast. Hell, every time they launch a submarine it sinks. Shoosh. The Imperial Japanese Navy it ain't. China is a threat only if you view a Napoleonic land march a threat.

Once again, history will go unheaded as the new Greater Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere is created.

And how long do yo think it will be before the Chinese navy does become a force to recon with 10, 15, 20 years?

It will be a reality at some point unless democracy takes hold in China.

And remember ... every dime or quarter you spend in Walmart or where ever on a Chinese product will be a bullet coming back in your son's or grandson's belly, unless we use our economic power to turn China towards freedom.

China's still got a long way to go, and it has to balance economic growth with control of its people.

As such, China is going to be privately financing and offering security to tyrants and brutal dictators in Africa and South America so as to tie up our attention outside of Asia while China manages its internal affairs. Iraq was a big loss for China because it means China won't have an ally in Saddam to stir up trouble at a strategic time when China is ready to make its move on Taiwan.

My guess is that if they took an extremely aggressive military development/procurement program, both navy and air forces, they could possibly be a threat in 50 years. As it stands they are trying mightily to be able to invade Taiwan and have not even met that threshold to date. The threat of an outwardly aggressive China should be balanced by the equally likely possibility of an internal civil war between the wealthy coasts and poor hinterlands. Economic development brings with it a lot of unexpected surprises for dictators.

I'd give it 15 years...tops. They are launching destroyers that are comparable to our Burke's, and they are rapidly trying to form up carrier battle groups. It's almost like the late 1930's all over again, funny how history repeats itself.

We will see a war on a scale incomparable to any other conflict in the worlds history, and it scares the hell out of me.

Jeff Head's 'Dragon Fury' series gives us a brief glimpse of what it'll be like, but I fear it'll be far worse than anything imaginable.

We currently have 12 Carrier Task Forces. They currenty have none. They currently have no blue water submarine escorts for a carrier. How in the hell do you figure in 15 years they overcome those technological and numerical inferiorities? No way. For a Navy to be compentent, it needs to exercise at least one generation of Officers and sailors in a modern navy setting. Currently they do not have one generation of competent Officers and sailors on deck. Remember, I didn't note any of their shortfalls in satellite reconnaissance.

All of their shortcomings that you mentioned can be caught up if they are aggressive enough, and the Chinese have been nothing but aggresive lately. They have money to burn, and their defense buget is rising every year.

Don't get me wrong, you make a vald and convincing arguement. I hope you're right. Hopefully FR will still be around in 15 years, and I'll graciously accept an 'I told you so' at that time.

It didn't take long for the Japanese to go from wooden junks to the Imperial Navy. What makes you so confident that the Chinese navy will always be at its present state? That's kind of foolhardy, don't you think? The Chinese aren't exactly landlubbers considering half their population live near the coast and nor are they insular considering that there are Chinese everywhere in the world. FYI, they are creating a blue-water navy as we speak. They just recently announced their decision to pursue a carrier group.

Their initial task will be one where they attempt to exercise control and dominance in the littoral waters of the China Sea near their own coastlines. That's their first stepping zone. They will have to confront us to achieve that, but they are building the force structure now to do so.

We, OTHO, despite our quantatiative and qualitative advantage now, will have global duties and priorities which will keep us from massing on that front. If other conflicts conttinue to require our presence, and if the DNC or a true RINO gets in the opval office...I look for them (under those two conditions) some time after the olympics to potentially test us there over Taiwan, the Spratelys or some other issue.

At current build rates, four or five years from now they will have the numbers and the technology and the training with their newer surface combatants and submarines to make such an attempt. They may or may not have a carrier at that point...I believe the Varyag will be operational in that time frame...but in the littoral waters where their land based air is so close at hand, a carrier will not make a lot of difference (other than a potentially dangerous distraction for us...more of an issue to local nations) in that first gambit.

Just my opinion.

We currently have 12 Carrier Task Forces. They currently have none. They currently have no blue water submarine escorts for a carrier. How in the hell do you figure in 15 years they overcome those technological and numerical inferiorities? I believe the special missile guidance technology that Klinton sold to the Chinese will help them out with this problem ... one multi-killoton warhead on a cruise missile will take care of a carrier fleet quite nicely ... unfortunately. I believe the Chinese would not hesitate to use nukes in a Taiwan conflict ... the US on the other hand would no doubt hesitate to use them in retaliation. But lets look at another scenario, the Chinese are becoming very friendly with Mexico. They will extend a hand to Mexico to help build ports for their products in exchange for Mexican oil. They already own the companies controlling the Panama canal locks. With Mexicans "invading" the US from the south now, why would it be too far teched to think that in 30 or 40 years a 120 to 150 divisions of Chi-Coms wouldn't make a move across the southern US boarder. We'll be so busy destroying ourselves to even notice at that time. Just a thought ... :^)

If China wants to demonstrate power abroad it needs a navy to do it. Without a navy that can at least checkmate ours (4-5 carrier task forces) they cannot project power. I do not see anyway they can pull off a navy of significant proportions and technological savy to threaten us in the near future. Also consider that the Japanese have a sizable compentent navy in the vicinity which would combine with ours. Ditto Taiwan and South Korea. We would probably see further reinforcement from Australia/NZ. China is using its military build up to offset its political weakness at home. It makes everyone feel proud and secure when the truth is they are neither. China's real threat comes from within as a portion of their population becomes wealthy and a majority of it does not. China has been down this road before and it ended in civil war. With a historical and philosophical underpinning of socialism how can the have's argue successfully with the have-nots?

With a historical and philosophical underpinning of socialism how can the have's argue successfully with the have-nots?

The have's have the backing of the military and industry. The have-not's are not armed. That's how.

The rich-poor gap in China today is geographical, this means the chances of another national revolution is low. The only threat to China is fragmentation (federalization), not revolution.

Yep...see my latest post/thread on the update to the Varyag...

Latest update on Varyag

That coating on the flight deck appears to be zincchromate and is the primer for a heavy duty non-skid surface. That's another clear indication (IMHO) that she is being outfitted for military use and not a "casino".

Dude, who do you think fled to Taiwan in the first place??? Taiwan holds the future to China, not the other way around. Sooner or later this realization will occur to a broad spectrum of the population (see Tinamein Square). Gorby thought he could ride the reform tiger and it ate him. My bet is the PRC leadership will fail to hold things together peacefully and will ultimately resort to violence to maintain their status. The violence will be directed at their own people not ours. Its a waiting game. We have history and economic logic on our side. They are pissing into the wind.

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