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We currently have 12 Carrier Task Forces. They currenty have none. They currently have no blue water submarine escorts for a carrier. How in the hell do you figure in 15 years they overcome those technological and numerical inferiorities? No way. For a Navy to be compentent, it needs to exercise at least one generation of Officers and sailors in a modern navy setting. Currently they do not have one generation of competent Officers and sailors on deck. Remember, I didn't note any of their shortfalls in satellite reconnaissance.

All of their shortcomings that you mentioned can be caught up if they are aggressive enough, and the Chinese have been nothing but aggresive lately. They have money to burn, and their defense buget is rising every year.

Don't get me wrong, you make a vald and convincing arguement. I hope you're right. Hopefully FR will still be around in 15 years, and I'll graciously accept an 'I told you so' at that time.

Their initial task will be one where they attempt to exercise control and dominance in the littoral waters of the China Sea near their own coastlines. That's their first stepping zone. They will have to confront us to achieve that, but they are building the force structure now to do so.

We, OTHO, despite our quantatiative and qualitative advantage now, will have global duties and priorities which will keep us from massing on that front. If other conflicts conttinue to require our presence, and if the DNC or a true RINO gets in the opval office...I look for them (under those two conditions) some time after the olympics to potentially test us there over Taiwan, the Spratelys or some other issue.

At current build rates, four or five years from now they will have the numbers and the technology and the training with their newer surface combatants and submarines to make such an attempt. They may or may not have a carrier at that point...I believe the Varyag will be operational in that time frame...but in the littoral waters where their land based air is so close at hand, a carrier will not make a lot of difference (other than a potentially dangerous distraction for us...more of an issue to local nations) in that first gambit.

Just my opinion.

We currently have 12 Carrier Task Forces. They currently have none. They currently have no blue water submarine escorts for a carrier. How in the hell do you figure in 15 years they overcome those technological and numerical inferiorities? I believe the special missile guidance technology that Klinton sold to the Chinese will help them out with this problem ... one multi-killoton warhead on a cruise missile will take care of a carrier fleet quite nicely ... unfortunately. I believe the Chinese would not hesitate to use nukes in a Taiwan conflict ... the US on the other hand would no doubt hesitate to use them in retaliation. But lets look at another scenario, the Chinese are becoming very friendly with Mexico. They will extend a hand to Mexico to help build ports for their products in exchange for Mexican oil. They already own the companies controlling the Panama canal locks. With Mexicans "invading" the US from the south now, why would it be too far teched to think that in 30 or 40 years a 120 to 150 divisions of Chi-Coms wouldn't make a move across the southern US boarder. We'll be so busy destroying ourselves to even notice at that time. Just a thought ... :^)