Posted on 10/26/2005 8:24:41 AM PDT by SirLinksalot
Okay folks, as Tom Mcguire said, better to be wrong than gutless.
I am posting my predictions regarding who and who will not be indicted here ....
Last night there was a little "Rove rally" at TradeSports.com
The futures market odds of a Rove indictment fell to about 45%. Poor Scooter Libby's was holding tough at around an 80% probability of indictment.
As of this writing, Rove's probability shot up to 60$ and Libby's never fell below 75%.
I predict that Rove will NOT BE INDICTED for the simple reason that it is extremely difficult to prove that he :
1) Leaked classified info. 2) Broke the 1982 or 1917 laws; or 3) Engaged in a conspiracy to out Plame.
Most of the testimony from Rove were in the order of -- "If I remember correctly", or "if memory serves me right..." -- hardly grounds for accusations.
Scooter Libby is another matter. There is evidence ( however little it is ) to show that this man actually got info from the CIA and KNEW about Plame's status and did reveal classified info to reporters.
He will be indicted.
NOTE, I am not talkign about what SHOULD happen in the real world, but what will happen in an imperfect world (such as we have ).
In a perfect world, Joe Wilson should be the focus of investigation and so should individuals within the CIA.
Anyone who wants to back my prediction should SELL Rove now ( if you own them ). It will head to zero as soon as indictments are handed out.
And if you agree with me, you should buy Libby now and bring home the difference when the contract rises from the 70's to 100 ( end of investigation ) for a decent profit.
CAVEAT : I don't endorse gambling. The whole thing is for pure fun.
Scooter maybe
Rove no
I'm going for a long shot:
Wilson and / or Plame are in the mix.
I predict 2 indictments.
WILSON, MILLER and the former CIA director........
NYT's is smearing Miller. Must be someone not in the Bush Admin. My take.
No indictments. Period.
I predict I am ordering a Cripsy Strips Meal at KFC - and will eat the said meal. The KFC in the town I work in is closing :(
Libby - no bill sought, too hard
Rove - no bill sought, too hard
Wilson - one count perjury
one count, conspiracy to obstruct justice
plame - one count, conspiracy to obstruct justice
one count, hatch act
Joe Wilson.
Wilson and Plame indicted for espionage. Scooter Libby and Karl Rove nominated for Congressional Medal of Freedom.
Libby and Miller
Fitzgerald is doing entirely too much "outside work" this week to have this thing wrapped up.
Somethings not right.
You're dreaming but I like your dreams and it makes the most sense.
I think Sacco and Vanzetti are in a lot of trouble./scar
My prediction is that nobody is going to be indicted, even if the prosecutor thinks he can make a good case that some kind of crime had been committed.
Because of the role that the CIA played in this case, it would be impossible for any defendant to mount a defense without forcing the disclosure of top-secret information and/or the potential exposure of additional CIA personnel. This inherent dilemma would likely result in a judge throwing out the charges in a criminal court down the road.
If someone were indicted in this case and they went to trial, their defense lawyer would submit a list of witnesses that included a lot of CIA personnel -- possibly covert. He could also subpoena all kinds of CIA information that would be considered classified. Once the CIA determines that none of this information could be shared with the court due to "national security concerns," the case would have to be thrown out of court because someone accused of a crime cannot be put in a position where he can't mount a legitimate defense.
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