Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[M. Espinola]

"A blizzicane? A hurrizard? =P"

Good terms :)

Either one will do because if this 150 mph Wilma makes it to the White Mountains of New Hampshire she will be confronting 34 inches of fresh snow in the Presidential Range. What a mess.

The Presidential Range

[burzum]

They are probably still reeling from the fact that she just dropped almost 80 millibar in about 9 hours. My jaw dropped what I saw the recent NHC report. I initially didn't believe what I was reading. Then the 0230 interim report came out. Whoa.

[steveegg]

I don't claim any expertise in this arena, but after living in FL for the past two years, and evacuating twice (Ivan and Dennis), I've heard so much about how the warm gulf waters will feed a hurricane to make it stronger. As I look at the current satellite maps of the water temperature (surface) in the gulf, the water doesn't look too darned warm. Up here in the panhandle the charts look as if the water is in the high 60s. If that storm heads more northerly than currently predicted wouldn't one expect it to weaken as it progresses into the colder water?

That's the recent thinking. Also, as we saw with Rita and Katrina, storms that blow up this quickly lose steam almost as quickly.

One difference between Wilma and her sisters; there's a landmass between her and the US that will take a lot of the water being pushed by her. That's bad news for Cuba, which is that landmass.

[HAL9000]

THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 is the #1 most intense hurricane on the NHC List.

If Wilma's pressure drops any more, it will take the record.

[HAL9000]

Link correction -

The Most Intense Hurricanes in the United States 1851-2004

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml

[Crazieman]

Those are US hurricanes at landfall.

The most intense in the Atlantic goes to Gilbert in 1988 at 888 millibars.

[Miztiki]

Wow. Wilma is really trying to make a name for herself. Just wow.

Katrina and Rita tracked a bit east of the predicted path, so perhaps Wilma will too and miss the US entirely.

Let's hope!

Is there a live thread for Saddam's trial that he appears to be late for?

[HAL9000]

Thanks for the correction.

[steveegg]

The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 is the #1 most intense hurricane on the NHC List.

If Wilma's pressure drops any more, it will take the record.

The 1935 Labor Day hurricane is "only" the US-strike record (and that pressure was measured at landfall, which is usually higher than the absolute minimum) . Mitch is the Atlantic record-holder at 888 mb, and Super Typhoon Tip is the world record-holder at 870 mb

[HAL9000]

Is there a live thread for Saddam's trial that he appears to be late for?

I haven't seen one yet. The beginning time of the trial is uncertain - but if it's on TV, I'm sure there will be a live thread for it.

[flattorney]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 190629
TCUAT4
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

[steveegg]

I got Mitch on the brain; that was Gilbert with the 888. Sorry about the confusion, but I'm usually not awake this late.

[laz]

Katrina and Rita both maxed at 175 mph. Wilma's already there. Let's see if she gets higher. With that pinhole eye, I wouldn't doubt it.

[flattorney]

South Florida Hurricane Severe Alert: Wilma Live Thread


Current Maximum Sustained Winds 175 MPH - Cat 5. Projection Models show South Florida a direct hit Saturday.

[steveegg]

We'll see if the next shoe drops in about 30-45 minutes. That's about the pace of the vortex data messages.

[steveegg]

It might be the lack of sleep that's typing, but those models are starting to converge on first the Yucatan Channel (durn, no land to take the brunt), then the northwest corner of the Everglades.

[Termite_Commander]

Wilma looks like she's having some slight problems on the Infrared floater loop.

[HoHoeHeaux]

887? Not official I don't believe.

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=59017

[steveegg]

You know what they say; easy come, easy go (I can hope, can't I?)

[Termite_Commander]

In that case, that beats Gilbert.

It also beats the stuffing out of my previous post.