Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[advance_copy]

Prayers for those in the path of the storm.

[buickmackane]

That's a relief, thanks!

I wonder how this is going to affect air traffic out of Florida now. I have a friend who works on a cruise ship based in Honolulu, and he came back to Miami to visit his family in between assignments. I sure hope he gets out of there in time for his next cruise this weekend!

[steveegg]

If he's out of there by Thursday PM, he should be good. Friday may start to get dicey depending on how fat Wilma gets.

[no dems]

New Orleans won't get hit again will it?

[M. Espinola]

If these hurricanes continue they will be colliding with snowstorms! :)

[Termite_Commander]

A blizzicane? A hurrizard? =P

[steveegg]

New Orleans won't get hit again will it?

Nope. The furthest north/west computer model has Wilma going right over Tampa, another has her going in where Dennis did, another has Cape Coral, and the rest have the Everglades (except for one "outlier" that has Cuba getting smacked from one end to the other).

[MikefromOhio]

that's what I am saying...

for all intents and purposes, this thing decided to skip CAT 2 and 3 (well most of CAT 2) and jump right up to CAT 4...

[steveegg]

We should get a couple more passes from the hunters before the 5 am full update.

[laz]

I think I heard the collective "Oh !" from those still awake in Florida all the way up here in Wisconsin.

One of those you heard was me. I'm still awake here in Miami, wide awake, after reading about that pressure drop and the increase in wind speed. She's bombing out faster than Rita!

[steveegg]

Good luck. Unless Wilma has a thing for Fidel, you'll need it.

[ajolympian2004]

http://bedrock.deadsquid.com/information/profiles/index.php?profile=wilma

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilma_Flintstone

[steveegg]

All we need is Fred to come down to the Caribbean to set her straight :-)

[Strategerist]

Lost in all of this is the track shift west before the turn..

If you have relatives vacationing in and around Cancun or Cozumel, I'd seriously call and wake them up now and get them to book a flight out before the rush.

[HelloooClareece]

another has her going in where Dennis did,

Oh no. I'll never forget being 9 months pregnant and sleeping in my VW Bug after Dennis killed the electricity for a week. If I may, which model shows it coming to the panhandle?

[Strategerist]

Avila just put out a special update; Cat 5, 175 mph winds, pressure 892 mb.

[steveegg]

Wilma is now a Category 5. From the NHC

000
WTNT64 KNHC 190629
TCUAT4
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA
HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE 
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED
175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS
THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

[sordidmesh]

I wonder what will happen once it is passed Florida and into the Atlantic. Will reform and hit up North East Coast as Hurricane?

[steveegg]

Avila just put out a special update; Cat 5, 175 mph winds, pressure 892 mb.

That expletive I heard from Florida changed from the S-word to the F-word, followed by a longer, indeterminate string of expletives.

[Strategerist]

another has her going in where Dennis did,

There are no useful models at the moment with a landfall further North than Fort Myers FL. Unfortunately a lot of "model" sites include old, antiquated models that NHC ignores in their Spaghetti plots.