Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[HelloooClareece]

892 mb.Unbelievable.

[sordidmesh]

Did Rita or Katrina get that low?

[Strategerist]

Nope.

[steveegg]

The latest from the Hurricane Hunters -

000
106 
URNT12 KNHC 190648
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/06:11:10Z
B. 16 deg 58 min N
  082 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2132 m
D. NA  kt
E. NA  deg     nm
F. 202 deg 168 kt
G. 109 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP  892 mb
I.  10 C/ 3058 m
J.  24 C/ 3034 m
K.  11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C2
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1  nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA        OB 12
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

[HelloooClareece]

No. Gilbert was the lowest as I recall at 888 mb. Not too far to go. Wow.

[Termite_Commander]

Holy cow! (again)

[Termite_Commander]

They just said on The Weather Channel that Wilma's eye is 2 miles across.

[laz]

Looks like Wilma is determined to outdo her sisters Katrina and Rita. Just when you think this hurricane season can't pull any more surprises, it does.

But you know what worries me even more? I wonder what next year is going to be like.

[Petronski]

Why would Karl Rove do that?

[steveegg]

Significant changes from the previous eye fix 1:39 ago -

• Max flight-level winds up 6 knots, but at a higher altitude (where winds are somewhat less and in an odd quadrant; usually, the strongest winds are in the NE quadrant)
• Pressure down 9 mb to the lowest of the season, and only 4 mb above the Atlantic record
• Movement west-northwest (293 degrees) at roughly 11 mph.

[steveegg]

They just said on The Weather Channel that Wilma's eye is 2 miles across.

Forgot to mention that in my significant changes post. We've now gone from an 8 nm eye to a 4 nm eye to a 2 nm eye.

[laz]

They just said on The Weather Channel that Wilma's eye is 2 miles across.

Talk about a pinhole! No wonder she's so intense.

Well, if she keeps this up, Wilma will break another record: first hurricane with an eye narrower than Ted Kennedy.

[steveegg]

Well, if she keeps this up, Wilma will break another record: first hurricane with an eye narrower than Ted Kennedy.

Actually, she already broke that one; The Swimmer is 2.5 nm wide :-)

[RavenATB]

I don't claim any expertise in this arena, but after living in FL for the past two years, and evacuating twice (Ivan and Dennis), I've heard so much about how the warm gulf waters will feed a hurricane to make it stronger. As I look at the current satellite maps of the water temperature (surface) in the gulf, the water doesn't look too darned warm. Up here in the panhandle the charts look as if the water is in the high 60s. If that storm heads more northerly than currently predicted wouldn't one expect it to weaken as it progresses into the colder water?

[steveegg]

Unless this one's aimed at Castro, this ain't Rove's doing.

[HelloooClareece]

I wonder what next year is going to be like

1933 was as active as this year but the following year it was relatively quiet so hopefully not too bad. I say that with all of the optimism a FL Panhandler can muster.

[buickmackane]

My sentiments exactly, Laz -- I'm leaving Louisiana ASAP. I don't intend to be around for next year's hurricane season!

[steveegg]

1933 was as active as this year but the following year it was relatively quiet so hopefully not too bad. I say that with all of the optimism a FL Panhandler can muster.

I'll posit that 1933 was busier. They didn't have satellites and hurricane-hunter planes back then, so unless a hurricane blasted onto land where people were or a ship blundered into it, nobody knew.

[Termite_Commander]

Looks like they didn't do a very good job with predictions on this chart.

[laz]

Why would Karl Rove do that?

Can't be Rove. It must be those Japanese gangsters. Looks like they got the hang of it now.