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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Not ready if I need to evacuate. Need to shutter the windows too.
Will keep you all in our prayers.
Had meant to say that I always value your posts too, don-o, wherever I see them.
I don't like the BAMM model very much.
I do enjoy sharing knowledge, and I find the atmosphere in these threads pleasant for the most part... I also have to always turn to FR for info that I wouldn't come upon elsewhere.
Weather is just a hobby, one I've obsessed about over the years... I guess I was just taken aback that someone would interpret my comments in such a way. As an admin at another board, I have learned to take disagreements in stride on the 'net. There is too much else to worry about in life, and most disagreements are over silly matters in the end. Outside studying the weather, my focus in grad school is studying conflict and terrorism. Many of the things I do... I do with the hope of saving people. That might be a naive hope, but It's a good place to start.
I will try to post more, it's a busy week... everything decided to come due at once @ school. I didn't even get to go out and enjoy the fall foliage before it disappeared! :<
Thank you.
We'll cover while you get the shutters on tomorrow (or Thursday, or Friday). Call me an optimist, but I have a feeling you won't have to go anywhere.
There are still people here that haven't uncovered from Rita.
bttt
I believe that. Natural light in the house will probably be their Christmas present.</humor_weak>
Might be more reality than humor.LOL
"What I found this evening, using the Navy's altimetry derived SST's -- is that the water temps on the surface of the ocean are actually a couple of degrees cooler than just below surface layer!. The mid mid fall temp fall off in water temps begins at the surface of course, but because it has only just begun, temps are 1-2deg warmer about 10-50 meters below the surface! This is rather ironic, in that it assures the slow moving storm will at first be upwelling WARMER Water! Normally, upwelling results in colder, sub-surface water being drawn upwards."
"110 mph, and the forecast track has it as a Cat 4 in 24 hours."
That ramp-up is unreal.
Wilma is bringing Bam-Bam!
Not as unreal as Rita's. Rita went from tropical storm to Cat 4 in just under 24 hours, and to Cat 5 twelve hours after that.
That's what happened with Charlie last year. Folks from the Tampa area came to Orlando - and got smacked.
Dry air, I want lots of dry air that sucks the moisture/intensity out of Wilma. Somewhere I've read there's a small chance she may go south of the keys because of the cold front and it's steering currents. That cold front is coming through Oklahoma tomorrow, I'm going to do my best to speed it on it's way where it get to y'all earlier that they're showing.
Well, one can always try!
You speed that cold front up, I'll do a hurricane death chant.
FWIW, the Weather Channel is saying that the hurricane hunter report they just got has the pressure down to 901, so it is still rapidly intensifying. Thankfully the waters are cooler north from Cuba, and there is talk of an eyewall replacement cycle tomorrow, so it should diminish in strength before US landfall.
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