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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Let's drop an iceburg or a nuke or both on this bitch.
The "old media" really needs to learn how to keep up with us :-D
I don't think the folks who lived in Naples during Hurricane Donna in 1960 would agree with your friend.
If we drop a nuke, let's do it before it crosses Cuba :-)
Night all. I have a bad feeling like the Friday before Katrina. But, y'all in Florida know the drill.
Well, Nauti, you are earning many well-deserved kudos for seeing all of us through this long, long hurricane season.
This has to be the last one.
Good vibes going out to all FLorida FReepers.
Good night, don-o.
Nighters
It's the excitement of possibly seeing a milestone reached. His excitement has absolutely nothing to do with wishing damage or death on anyone, anywhere. He's said just the opposite.
nwctwx has participated and shared his knowledge with us on several of the hurricane threads. He has his own board and he doesn't have to come over to FR and analyze storm tracks or intensity. He's got quite a bit to deal with on his own board but he comes here to share with us. He's been helpful in explaining terminology and what maps mean. He's been willing to share his knowledge and assistance with us.
I'm not going to begrudge him feeling some excitement about the possibility of there being a hurricane named Alpha. Just as he confirmed in one of his posts, he wouldn't care if it curved around and petered out in the Atlantic after reaching hurricane strength, that it'd would be the best scenario.
Please don't assign feelings he obviously doesn't have about wanting a killer cane to happen. Another hurricane with no property damage, injuries or death would be kind of neat since we would have used up all of the assigned names and naming them (I think it's Greek) numbers.
nwctwx, your insights on hurricanes and weather are highly valued; I think most of us who follow these threads wish, if anything, that you would post even more often.
It kind of reminds me of Dr. Neil Frank, director of the NHC back in the 70's and 80's, now a Texas TV weatherman. You could tell by watching Dr. Frank on television that he was just completely fascinated by hurricanes and loved talking about them. Yet he constantly warned people of what to expect, and constantly worried that millions of folks were moving into vulnerable coastal areas without really knowing what could happen. I miss his broadcasts.
Weirdly, while searching for a photo of Dr. Frank, which I could only find the one I posted a few weeks ago, I also found that he is not a believer that global warming is caused by man:
"However, Dr. Neil Frank told the officials that climate change "has nothing to do with carbon dioxide."
He said he saw "nothing in the data - not numerical models - that would force us into a rapid decision cutting back on emissions and impose an economic disaster on this nation."
Frank is former director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami and now chief meteorologist with television station KHOU in Houston.
Concerns over global warming from the enhanced greenhouse effect are based on computer models of the atmosphere's processes. Those models' results should be treated with skepticism, Frank said.
"I can't put faith in a three-day forecast," he said, yet scientists are making predictions about what the climate will be in two centuries using more simplified models of the atmosphere than are used for the short-term, daily weather forecasts.
"The atmosphere," Frank said, "is too complex, and the computers are too slow," even supercomputers, to forecast the very long-term future with any skill.
1004mb would be good right now.
She's got a very small, pinhole eye. Only 7 miles wide. A good indication she'll intensify rapidly.
I'm hoping for that yellow NHC one that takes this thing all over Cuba.
bttt
How about WHEN it crosses?
Don't think we'll get 1004, but I'll settle for the 954 that was last measured.
May be a dumb question, but are you ready?
This won't be as intense as Charlie if it hits south of Sarasota, since the Gulf water temps are now cooler, some 10 degrees cooler than when Katrina moved through. All the Cat4-5 talk is media hype as far as the US is concerned, this storm will not be any more than a weak Cat-3 at landfall, with a tiny eye IMHO.
If it's a slow-mover so the fallout doesn't land in Florida, that would work.
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