Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[dawn53]

I just watched local Fox news and the weather guy was talking about landfall in Charlotte County. That would be awful, too, there are people still living in FEMA trailers from Charley, and lots of the destruction from Charley stll hasn't been repaired.

[mhking]

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 14

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 18, 2005

...Wilma continues to rapidly strengthen...should become a major
hurricane in a few hours...


at 10 PM CDT...0300z...the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane Watch southward to Punta gruesa. A Hurricane Watch is
now in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Punta gruesa.


A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.


A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.


A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.


All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of Wilma.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 16.8 north...longitude 82.1 west or about
185 miles... 295 km...south-southwest of Grand Cayman and about
405 miles... 650 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.


Wilma is moving generally toward the west-northwest near 8 mph
...13 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected during the
next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...with Wilma becoming a major hurricane later tonight and
possibly becoming a category four hurricane later on Wednesday.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 155 miles...250 km. NOAA buoy 42057 recently reported sustained
winds of 50 mph... 81 kh/hr...with a gust of 58 mph... 94 km/hr.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb...27.91 inches.


Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday. Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday. Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.


Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...16.8 N... 82.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 945 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.


Forecaster Beven

[steveegg]

Wasn't Bastardi saying this on Cavuto this afternoon?

Yes. I do believe NautiNurse gets first shot at him for that :-)

[nwctwx]

I did try to preface my comments with other information, I can understand where you might have gotten the wrong idea.

I am one of the Admins @ one of the popular weather boards... I do keep up with this stuff a lot, and I always saw part of our mission being getting the crucial information out to the people who need it.

I was deeply saddened when Katrina was marching towards the coast, the images after the fact brought tears to my eyes. I do not wish harm on anyone, nor will I ever do so.

Forgiving and forgetting is good. Sorry if I came across the way I did to you.

[VeniVidiVici]

Gonna be a weird weekend. High humidity and temps Sat., then freeze Sun night. Of course the term "freeze" is relative. It's supposed to get down in the 50s.

[prairiebreeze]

Take care Peach. freepmail a coming

[mhking]

I'll pull the live links list for you in the morning...

But take a look at Bryan Norcross' forecast at 11 p.m. on WFOR-TV/DT Miami

The WMP stream is at http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 155 miles...

Is this correct? If she keeps the hurricane force winds tight like this, the damage field will be comparably small like Charley.

[My Favorite Headache]

[mhking]

Is this correct?

I'm guessing this will grow overnight - the cloud deck is starting expanding along with the deepening of the storm.

Don't be surprised if we're looking at a CAT 4 by this time tomorrow...

[My Favorite Headache]

The 2am model runs are what is going to prompt some watches for parts of Fla imo tomorrow morning.

[NautiNurse]

Group hug - I like both of you too much to see a spat around here where you are needed to get us Floridians through this storm.

[NautiNurse]

The LBAR needs to be a terribly useless model for this storm.

[NautiNurse]

Thanks, FRiend.

[My Favorite Headache]

LOL...I am in Orlando area...I know what you are saying...but work will call me to cover Marco Island on Thursday night/Friday morning so I am ready if need be.

[Peach]

Thanks prairie and you have mail too.

[NautiNurse]

It's supposed to get down in the 50s.

I'll pack a sweater if I need to bug out. Thanks...

;o)

[Dog Gone]

There's a long time between now and Saturday afternoon. I think this has every chance of being a very dangerous storm, not only powerful internally but moving at a fast pace which adds to the forward wind speed.

If I lived in Ft. Meyers right now, I would be VERY concerned, but all from Tampa to Miami, and certainly all of the Keys, should be hitting the panic button around now.

[Capt. Tom]

Yesterday I sent an e mail to a snowbird friend who had just gone down to Naples. I found the ACCUWEATHER track that had Wilma heading for the Naples area. At that time the other tracks didn't have that target. So half kiddingly I sent the track to my snowbird friend to give him the business.

He tersely responded." Just to let you know........it's been 67 years since any hurricane has hit Naples......you've had lots more trouble in Scituate than we've ever had here.

Now it looks like this procaine hit around Naples is a real possibility.

Just got this e- mail from him. Mary and I will have the P/U with the camper on ready to go..........I don't know where......the last time Naples was threatened a couple of years ago we went to Orlando...,.and got blasted...

This e-mail probably sums up the problem most west coast of Florida residents are facing. Unless you are going to leave the state you can't move too early or you might end up in the way of the storm.

If the proposed tracks are right, decisions will have to be made Friday and early Saturday to stay or go north or south, based on the best available information.

Good luck to all Floridians (and snow birds) faced with this decision. - tom

[steveegg]

Is this correct? If she keeps the hurricane force winds tight like this, the damage field will be comparably small like Charley.

It's not "Typo" Franklin at the keyboard :-)