Posted on 10/17/2005 7:59:53 AM PDT by Travis McGee
The October Newsletter The Leaves Won't Be The Only Thing To Fall! Enrico Orlandini Lasco Report 17 Oct, 2005
We're heading into that time of year where the word "crash" tends to command a bit more respect among market specialists, i.e., the months of October and/or November. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but I see an ominous cloud on the horizon. Actually, I see a large mass of clouds and they're as black as night. Anyone who's invested in the stock market over the last three or four years has little or nothing to show for it and, if you're still invested, you can't be feeling too comfortable right now. In short, a simple saving account would have been a better investment. Then again, when you buy into a market that's selling at 20 times earnings and paying a miniscule 1.75% dividend, what can you expect? Two weeks ago I warned my clients about the "probability", not the possibility, of a crash. What did I see that made me so worried that I would crawl out on a limb all by myself? Frankly, there were and still are any number of warning signals, and I would like to delve into some of them in the space provided below.
The first such warning sign comes from the market itself. Focus your attention on the following daily chart of the cash DJIA and follow along:
Lots of charts and analysis follows, HERE
Agreed, Oil before gold.
LOL!
... except during the run-up to and just after legalization in the 1970s. That had real profit potential (in case you own a time machine :-)
I thought the 1970's were a toilet. The runup in gold and the stagflation was triggered by the collapse of the Bretton Woods foreign exchange system. That collapse was inevitable because in the 1960's LBJ was spending like GWB.
:). Now we're talking. Cept I'm taking out on one pocket to put in the other. Does my appreciation in oil stocks offset my pain at the pump and wage hurt from being near the airlines bidness? Not sure about that.
Thank you, sir. The thread is now complete.
Graycliff? hmm. Already priced for perfection :).
Rats... I'm still reading "Dow 36,000".
Far from it.
The huckster says that the stock market has not done squat in the last 3-4 years.
Small and mid-cap stocks and international stocks have done outstanding, with high double digit returns. REITs have done well, as have oil related stocks. I stopped reading right there, obvious this snake oil merchant does not know what he is talking about. I imagine this hawker of gold or something is trying to peddle his wares, the usual motive for those predicting doom in the stock market.
Very true....
Thanks for the post, Travis. No one seems to want to talk about the economy, but I read 321 Gold often. Don't own much myself, believing a bird in the hand, is worth two in the bush. Put my money in assets that could be eaten, or assets that could be used to grow food. Land,cattle, tractors, feed, seed, and fertilizers. My grandfather always said all one HAD to do was feed themselves. His family learned the lesson well in 1833 Indiana. They came from Austria to pioneer with 10,000 dollars in gold, but almost starved to death. Can't buy much of anything on the bald face of a prairie. So much for gold.
If that's you in your bio, I assume you fish. Good for you. Stocked three lakes three years ago with Hybrid Florida bass. They're about 4 pounds now.
Things fall apart. It's scientific.
Are you doing the thread today?
Okay, someone tell me, does this mean I should go out and buy a bunch of gold jewelry? Will that kind of gold go up too? Please say yes.
Oil is a resource stock. Actually, 321 Gold has opened another web site called 321 Oil.
Most natural resources are doing extremely well. Gold, silver, copper, platinum, molybdenum, oil, natural gas, you name it. Iron has done exceedingly well too, although you don't often hear it mentioned.
For what it's worth, I have pulled everything out of the stock market and long-term bond market for the moment. As this fellow says, the bond market is VERY hard to predict at the moment, but it's clearly at a key juncture one way or the other. The fundamentals are poor, the technicals are ominous, and it is a classically bad time of the year. Sure, the Doom and Gloomers are really monotonous, and I no longer bother to read most of them. But this fellow is presenting technical analysis, not the daily diet of doom & gloom. He may or may not be right, of course.
Bwahahahahaha!
I can see you trying to run with your pockets full of gold coins, or trading one for a cup of soup, while trying to show the soup seller that the coin is real by biting it with your teeth.
Me? I'm gonna use a $100.00 gun to take his soup. ;)
Gee. A gold bug predicting a stock market crash... why am I skeptical? /sarcasm
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