Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous and large Category Five Hurricane Rita is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. Air Force Reconnaissance indicated the central pressure has dropped to 904mb, making Rita the fifth most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Northern Mexico through the South Louisiana coastline. Galveston TX used school buses to evacuate residents. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations are in effect along the Texas coastline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[Palladin]

Cantore said that he was about halfway betw. Galveston and Houston. Is that correct?

[steveegg]

Cantore could still move, but if it's inland, you best be in front of him because the back of his raincoat has this inscription: "If you see this and don't see the ocean, run faster!"

[COEXERJ145]

I was wondering where he would finally show up.

[TheMom]

You and Tom keep yer heads low, and yer kids close. You have our prayers.

Thanks for your prayers. Tom & I will stay side by side and the kids will not leave our sides.

[Petronski]

He's halfway between Galveston and downtown Houston, yeah.

[Squantos]

Give Eaker and Humblegunner their address and they'll go kidnap em for ya !

I suppose they'll do it for you for free everyone else will have to fess up beer and gas money and of course any ammunition expended out of pocket...etc etc....

Also no third party out of state personal checks without proper ID .......again. They fell for that twice.

All joking aside I hope yer family is safe and sees the potential for loss of life and bails out for a weekend in Dallas at the Gaylord !

[Diddle E. Squat]

Are they back to normal now in the Cayman's, after that awful hurricane she went through?

[Revel]

Thanks. He is going to need it.

[Eaker]

I thought that you were standing on a five gallon bucket with binoculars looking at the back of yer head!

Now where is Swishy Rump .......... we might need a place to stay!

[Squantos]

A given.....:o)

[AntiGuv]

Basically yes. The orange zone moving across the Gulf is the storm itself. What you wanna look at is what's around it. Ordinarily, the storms aren't this massive and there's a lot more "around it" to look at.. The only frame I'm not too sure about is the 48 hour frame, where you see that green up near Louisiana and also near the Mexico border. I'm unclear whether or not that suggests the storm might be interacting with other weather systems. In any case, to my understanding, when you look at the wind shear maps, you look at the area around the hurricane, and particularly forward to the hurricane, not the hurricane zone itself.

[MOgirl]

Hello,

Please take care, and do what ever it takes to be safe. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

MOgirl

[Torie]

Here is an analysis that I stole from a weather junkie site:

At 11PM Rita is in the middle of the High Octane that allowed her to reach record strengthening and become one of the Atantics strongest storms. Rita remains over these favorable conditions (water at 30-31c and high heat content) for at least the next 12 - 18 hours and as expected she should peak during this period. As she tracks W and then NW she continues in waters that are 29 - 31C all the way to coastal Texas. With less deep heat content, it's likely she weakens back to Cat 4 once west of 90w, but she will still be a highly intense storm pushing a building storm surge towards her landfall. Freeport remains the favored landfall between 4pm Fri (9/23) and 4Am Sat (9/24). Winds should be at 120 - 135mph at landfall with a huge storm surge up to 20 - 30'. Rita's slow track north through TX will create a high risk for Flooding in C/NE TX and then into OK Sat - Tue. Some dry air coming off of E-TX and into the western most Gulf may also restrict Rita from a last minute surge, but this is not likely to be a major factor and in fact, may already be reversing as Rita pushes west and brings mosit tropical air with her. The rest of the Gulf is under 75 - 80F dew points and high humidity. Will update the maps as soon as they are available. Tony

[vox humana]

That's 3 corrections in the last 4 hours if my memory isn't completely gone. Once General Honore is done with NOLA, we'll need him to straighten out the NHC.

After that he can straighten all the FReepers who post erroneous information!

[raygun]

Bzzzzzzzzz. Wrong.

All its saying is that a stronger wind wasn't seen than earlier in the flight, i.e., 161 knots in NE quad @1932Z. Those P3-O's can loiter up there for like 10 stinkin' hours. So you won't get a new Item P max wind reading until it goes over 161, or a new plane comes out.

Max winds at FL (700mb) in final inbound leg were 142KTs out of 305 deg, @ bearing 198 11 NM from storm center. What this means is that the strongest part of the storm is the SW quad, while at 1932Z it was in the NE quad.

Max surface winds observed were 80 KTs @ bearing 213, 24 NM from storm center.

Despite max surface winds being slightly further out from the eye than at 1932 (with significantly less intensity), and the FL 700mb winds somewhat lighter also, the low itself is still deepeing. Just a little bit of EWRC, nothing to see here, move along.

[onyx]

Oh NO. Far from it. She returned in March. Her kitchen is still not fully repaired and the insurer will not let her insure it, until all repairs are completed. The materials for the repair are still sitting on the dock in Miami. She has held her heart in her hand all this season, just praying that another hurricane won't hit them.

ALL that is missing in the repairs: some lousy sink and garbage disposal!

[Eaker]

I love Cyborg

I just like her so I guess since y'all are all married and all this works.

I would never reference my wife in my tagline!

; < )

[Daniel Ramsey]

Now why hasn't somebody or anyone suggested we try to actually stop these hurricanes? There was a project to "super-seed" the hurricane with massive amounts of silver iodide I think to make it basically rain itself out. Now may be the best time to try something.
This storm is heading for Houston.

[conservative in nyc]

He's halfway between Galveston and DOWNTOWN Houston. Houston is a big, sprawling city, so he's closer to some parts of Houston than the city of Galveston.

He's basically on the shore of Galveston Bay near the Harris/Galveston County line, just to the right and across the river from the 2094 sign in the middle of the map:

[Squantos]

North till ya smell it and west till ya step in it......:o)

You need help just squeal reeeeeeal loud and I'll come get ya'll !

Don't be a hero....take yer tribe to San Antonio and drink beer at the Menger Bar till this is over.

Has yer boss closed down shop yet ?