A given.....:o)
At 11PM Rita is in the middle of the High Octane that allowed her to reach record strengthening and become one of the Atantics strongest storms. Rita remains over these favorable conditions (water at 30-31c and high heat content) for at least the next 12 - 18 hours and as expected she should peak during this period. As she tracks W and then NW she continues in waters that are 29 - 31C all the way to coastal Texas. With less deep heat content, it's likely she weakens back to Cat 4 once west of 90w, but she will still be a highly intense storm pushing a building storm surge towards her landfall. Freeport remains the favored landfall between 4pm Fri (9/23) and 4Am Sat (9/24). Winds should be at 120 - 135mph at landfall with a huge storm surge up to 20 - 30'. Rita's slow track north through TX will create a high risk for Flooding in C/NE TX and then into OK Sat - Tue. Some dry air coming off of E-TX and into the western most Gulf may also restrict Rita from a last minute surge, but this is not likely to be a major factor and in fact, may already be reversing as Rita pushes west and brings mosit tropical air with her. The rest of the Gulf is under 75 - 80F dew points and high humidity. Will update the maps as soon as they are available. Tony