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Posted on 09/18/2005 1:56:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Off to work.
It should be noted that historic climatology still suggests the possibility of landfalling hurricanes, including major ones, in Texas are likely in September. It is October and beyond where one sees hurricane landfalls drop off sharply for Texas. Lets take a closer look:
Texas Hurricane Landfalls in September:
Since 1851, 12 hurricanes have made landfall in Texas on or after September 1. 10/12 (83%) made landfall in September. Of those landfalling hurricanes, 6 (60%) were tracking either west-northwest or northwest at the time of landfall. 4/10 (40%) recurved toward the west-southwest or southwest near or after landfall.
At the same time, Texas has experienced the landfall of 6 major hurricanes in September. 2/6 (33%) were Category 4 hurricanes, one of which was the infamous Galveston Hurricane of 1900. The remainder were Category 3 hurricanes at landfall. 4/6 (67%) of these landfalling major hurricanes formed in September. No major hurricane has made landfall in Texas after September.
Estimated Strength at Landfall:
Initial Landfall: Florida Keys: 100 mph
Second landfall in northeast Mexico or south Texas: 120 mph
Current models predict landfall anywhere from southern Texas to Louisiana. I wonder how the LA residents are taking it?
Right now no one in Louisiana is paying any attention. We here in Texas are!!! YIKES!!!
You can say that again.
Who is your weather guy of choice? I like Dr. Neil and David Paul on KHOU.
David Paul is definitely telling folks that now is the time to be thinking about preparations.
I live on the water on North Padre Island in Corpus. I've really got a bunch of stuff I need to get done this weekend, so if it's possible I'd like to re-schedule this.
Who do I talk to about that?
My guess is Rita will head for New Orleans. You just know it wants to..
bookmark for later
I watched him at 5:30AM, he's the one. Hope Doc Frank is on tonight. Since, Doc Frank was head of NHC for yrs, I trust his hurricane forecast and listen to him intently.
Has it really been 30 yrs since Corpus was hit by a hurricane? WOW...
I rescheduled already in July, but Saturday a bad day for me too. I have a trail ride planned:')
Yeah, Doc is the best weather guy any tv station could have. We're lucky to have him at times like this.
All the NO evacuees that are in Houston are probably having serious anxiety issues dealing with a possible hit, and you sure can't blame them.
How about you? Anything planned this weekend?
I didn't have anything planned, but it looks like Rita may be putting something on my schedule. Hopefully it doesn't involve chainsaws.
Bookmark to pick up at work.
Be careful with the chainsaws though, esp if you are sitting on a limb:')
That's what they say...I wasn't here for it, thankfully.
I am amazed by that fact, though. I don't know all of the reasons for it, but it seems that the forecast'll point one right at us and then it goes north or south of us.
The closest one, recently anyway, went ashore some 30 miles or so north of here and we only got 40 to 50 mph gusts and some rain out of it.
BUT...nobody's asleep at the switch at this house. We're always up on our toes when one of these rascals gets in the gulf.
People in Louisiana will be ready when/if it turns towards us. You would be amazed at how quickly people cleared their yards after Katrina where I live. It looked like a bomb went off, then a few days later, back to pretty much normal here with most trees cleared.
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