It should be noted that historic climatology still suggests the possibility of landfalling hurricanes, including major ones, in Texas are likely in September. It is October and beyond where one sees hurricane landfalls drop off sharply for Texas. Let’s take a closer look:
Texas Hurricane Landfalls in September:
Since 1851, 12 hurricanes have made landfall in Texas on or after September 1. 10/12 (83%) made landfall in September. Of those landfalling hurricanes, 6 (60%) were tracking either west-northwest or northwest at the time of landfall. 4/10 (40%) recurved toward the west-southwest or southwest near or after landfall.
At the same time, Texas has experienced the landfall of 6 major hurricanes in September. 2/6 (33%) were Category 4 hurricanes, one of which was the infamous Galveston Hurricane of 1900. The remainder were Category 3 hurricanes at landfall. 4/6 (67%) of these landfalling major hurricanes formed in September. No major hurricane has made landfall in Texas after September.
Estimated Strength at Landfall:
Initial Landfall: Florida Keys: 100 mph
Second landfall in northeast Mexico or south Texas: 120 mph
Current models predict landfall anywhere from southern Texas to Louisiana. I wonder how the LA residents are taking it?