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Posted on 09/18/2005 1:56:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Now I am further north, but anything in the Gulf can cause tornadoes, etc. It never hurts to have those preparations made - which I do.
Prayers for your health.
""36hr VT 20/1800z 24.0n 81.2w 80 kt""
Ahhhhhhh......here I sit at 24.3n and 81.3w
Daylight soon, time to spring to action
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Good morning. I haven't been around the storm threads recently, but it looks like this one is mine to watch.
Forecast for near Cat 2 around Key West. Also, the strongest portion of the storm has been to the north of the center.
Gotta watch what happens during interaction with Florida.
It's blowing a gale, and it's Talk Like A Pirate day too.
Not good
I'm not sure how to figure this one out. I just went to NOOA and all but one still show STexas and the other towards Houston. WU shows all above Houston and this last one posted covers all the states. Are they all like this at first and we are wanting answers sooner because of Katrina or do they just have no idea?
Ridge is moving by the time Rita gets to Texas, Rita will be moving around that ridge...Rita is expected to hit mid Texas Coast today. None of us are out of her track...however, it looking less likely So Texas will get hit.
Well, you'll get a lot of info and interpretation of forecasting predictions if you stay tuned to this thread.
Yes, tracks, in the beginning, and with unknown factors (like when high pressure ridges will change, etc.) are often hard to forecast this far out and the models will be all over the chart.
Here's a good blog to read, it's from http://www.wunderground.com
the guy give insights that are practical and easy to understand
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
613
URNT12 KNHC 191021 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/10:08:20Z
B. 22 deg 46 min N
074 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1416 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 044 deg 055 kt
G. 311 deg 035 nm
H. 997 mb
I. 14 C/ 1519 m
J. 20 C/ 1524 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0318A RITA OB 20 CCA
MAX FL WIND 64 KT N QUAD 09:19:50 Z
That's good for me but not yall or my family in that area. I'm still hoping the ridge will hold and she blows out in Mexico.
sorry for the allcaps, but for those who need the NWS to yell at them...
TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
605 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005
...MANDATORY EVACUATION NOW IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS AND MOBILE HOME
RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON TODAY FOR RESIDENTS...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS UPDATED.
WIND IMPACTS UPDATED.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS
THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
FOR THOSE TRAVELING NORTH TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD
BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 450 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 490 MILES EAST OF KEY WEST.
TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.
A MOTION JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND TROPICAL STORM RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 998 MB...OR
29.47 INCHES OF MERCURY.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS IN EFFECT FOR VISITORS...NON-RESIDENTS...
AND MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THE FOLLOWING HURRICANE SHELTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO OPEN AT NOON TODAY
FOR RESIDENTS:
KEY WEST HIGH SCHOOL...2100 FLAGLER AVENUE.
SUGARLOAF SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 19 GULFSIDE ON SUGARLOAF KEY.
STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48.5 GULFSIDE IN
MARATHON.
CORAL SHORES HIGH SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 89 IN ISLAMORADA.
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN MUST LEAVE.
THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER WILL BE FULLY
ACTIVATED TODAY AT 700 AM.
FLORIDA KEYS RESIDENTS SHOULD INSTALL HURRICANE SHUTTERS NOW...AND
SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. EFFORTS
TO SECURE PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS EVENING.
CITY OFFICES...COUNTY PARKS...AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED. COUNTY
OFFICES WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY. MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE
CLOSED TODAY AND TUESDAY. AS OF THIS TIME...HOSPITALS WILL REMAIN
OPEN. TOLLS ON CARD SOUND ROAD ARE SUSPENDED. KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS SHOULD BE OPERATIONAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
THE MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT INFORMATION HOTLINE IS
AVAILABLE AT 1-800-955-5504.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 8 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE LOWER
KEYS...AND A STORM SURGE OF 3 TO 6 FEET IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN RISING TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY. THESE STORM SURGE ESTIMATES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
OBSERVATIONS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON A SIMILAR
TRACK. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL IN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE FULL MOON. THEREFORE...A STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 9
FEET IS POSSIBLE SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT 1031 AM AND 1045 PM
TODAY...AND TUESDAY AT 1118 AM AND 1129 PM. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST
HARBOR ARE AT 1141 AM AND 1134 PM TODAY...AND AT 230 PM ON
TUESDAY...AND FINALLY 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.
REMEMBER...THE TOTAL STORM TIDE EQUALS THE STORM SURGE PLUS THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.
...WIND IMPACTS...
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 10 TO
20 MPH. OVER WATER...NORTHEAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
NORTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FRESHEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH
BEGINNING BY TUESDAY EARLY MORNING OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER
KEYS...AND BY TUESDAY MID MORNING OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS BY TUESDAY LATE MORNING.
...MARINE IMPACTS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET
BEYOND THE REEF...AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. BY TUESDAY...SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE REEF...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30
FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA. IF YOU PLAN TO EVACUATE
YOUR BOAT AND REQUIRE THE BRIDGE TO OPEN ON JEWFISH CREEK OR SNAKE
CREEK...YOU SHOULD BEGIN YOUR TRIP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. THE BRIDGES
MAY BE LOCKED DOWN TO MARINE TRAFFIC LATER TODAY. IF YOU PLAN FOR
YOUR VESSEL TO REMAIN IN THE KEYS...YOU MAY WISH TO USE THIS TIME TO
ADD EXTRA LINES AND DEPLOY EXTRA GROUND TACKLE.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IS 79 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND 78 PERCENT AT KEY WEST. THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 24 PERCENT AT MARATHON AND
26 PERCENT AT KEY WEST.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM
RITA ON THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF
NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST.
Here in Houston one of our weather guys is giving us a heads up big-time because the ridge is forecast to move east.
Arrrh....
Good morning --
Watching WFOR this morning (http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live - WMP) -- Monroe County (The Keys) has issued a manditory evacuation for all visitors, tourists and mobile homes.
Their reporter in Nassau says that a hurricane warning has been issued for the central and northern Bahamas, but apparently this has snuck up on them; they aren't ready yet.
They are advising that locals in Miami-Dade & Broward keep an eye on this storm and pull in loose items, but that they can wait until the 5P advisory before putting up shutters (or not if it stays further south).
But looking at the models, Miami-Dade will most likely get some significant squalls through there.
Sounds like a NOLA-Houston swath needs to keep an eye on this for next weekend...
Thanks for the update. Local news last night was surprised that Bahamas hadn't issued a hurricane warning.
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