Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Phillipe would be next, then Rita...but how 'bout we try to get through the b-day week (actually, for me it will be the 7th anniversary of my 30th birthday) with nothing but reflections on Ophelia et al? Happy Birthday!
That's really interesting.......but it would make sense because salt water is denser than fresh water.
It's amazing the difference 10 or 15 miles can make. I'm far enough inland (10 miles from the Chesapeake, 15 from the Atlantic) so that salt water is not a concern and so never thought about it.
Trying to make sense of what you wrote about Bastardi. Is he saying storms are going to continually develop and hit the Carolinas in 10-15 day cycles with an occasional one to the Gulf of Mexico? Can you clarify what he said.
I like your idea!!! Mine is the 15th anniversary of my 30th :)
Happy birthday to you as well!!!
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 36
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 14, 2005
...Ophelia continues to pound the Carolina coast... At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Hurricane Warning south of Cape Fear is discontinued. At 11 PM EDT...the Hurricane Warning from Surf City to Cape Fear is downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia...including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area within the next 36 hr. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 34.3 north... longitude 76.5 west or about 20 miles south-southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina and about 85 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. Ophelia is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph...and a slow motion to the east-northeast or northeast is expected over the next 24 hours. While the center of Ophelia is expected to parallel and pass a very short distance offshore the North Carolina Outer Banks over the next 24 hours...the northwest eyewall is expected to remain over the Outer Banks during this period. Maximum sustained winds...primarily located offshore in the southeastern portion of the eyewall...are near 85 mph...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale...and is expected to remain a category one hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconaissance aircraft was 980 mb...28.94 inches. Maximum coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 9 to 11 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers. Ophelia is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over portions of eastern North Carolina during the next 24 hours...with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches possible. Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...34.3 N... 76.5 W. Movement toward...east-northeast near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 980 mb. Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 am EDT and 3 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT. Forecaster Franklin
Forecaster Franklin is such a peach :)
It's so confusing for me - watching both the Bay and the Ocean. But the concern is for the folks on the Carolina coast at the moment.........Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and the lower Eastern Shore will be the focus come the morning, I think...........unless she really turns eastward.
Very interesting. I love old forts and visit them whenever I come upon one when traveling.
Leni
Ironically, was going through old family photos recently, and found one of the last family vacations at Fort Macon. Agree, old forts are great exploration for kids of all ages.
I remember the old Associated Teletype printers we used when I worked in radio..................And the weather forecasts came across exactly the way we see them often posted here all in CAPS and "signed" forecaster xyz at the end. So I know what yu are saying about feeling like you "know" them.
Franklin, Avila, and Stewart are the ones I'm most familiar with.
What is it with the GD mods? In Breaking News, out of Breaking News. It's as if the FR folks along the Carolina and Virginia coasts don't matter to the mods that run this site and they have to hunt to find the info. The storm will impact the state for another 24 hours and it would seem useful to put in a somewhat more important sidebar than "announcements". (I lost the thread and the only way I could find it again was to check "my comments" since I made a post a bit ago.)
The cone of uncertainty includes eastern MA.
The one NE of San Juan is susposed to go into the Gulf of Mexico? It almost looks to be too far north to do so. But they have the charts.
LBAR earned it's stripes with Katrina. I don't like it's prediction.
Hurricane Ophelia Intermediate Advisory Number 36a
Statement as of 1:00 am EDT on September 15, 2005
...Ophelia relentlessly lashing the North Carolina coast... a Hurricane Warning remains in effect Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Surf City to Cape Fear. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light Virginia...including the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area within the next 36 hr. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 1 am EDT...0500z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 34.4 north... longitude 76.4 west or about 20 miles south-southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina and about 75 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. Ophelia is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph...and a slow motion to the east-northeast or northeast is expected over the next 24 hours. While the center of Ophelia is expected to parallel and pass a very short distance offshore the North Carolina Outer Banks over the next 24 hours...the northwest eyewall is expected to remain over the Outer Banks during this period. Maximum sustained winds...primarily located offshore in the southeastern portion of the eyewall...are near 85 mph...with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale...and is expected to remain a category one hurricane during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft was 981 mb...28.97 inches. Maximum coastal storm surge flooding of 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 9 to 11 feet is possible at the heads of bays and rivers. Reports from the National Weather Service forecast office in Newport/Morehead City North Carolina indicate that the storm surge flooding in Salter Path was near 7 feet. Ophelia is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over portions of eastern North Carolina during the next 24 hours...with maximum storm total amounts of 15 inches possible. Repeating the 1 am EDT position...34.4 N... 76.4 W. Movement toward...east-northeast near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure...981 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 3 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT. Forecaster Avila
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