Friday Map (ECMWF):
Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Do you mind if I ask my adjust about this "receipt" issue? I also have 50,000 in contents and I took the new replacement instead of the actual value.
We have just got a lot of bad breaks. Bad adjustors mostly.
They finally gave us a payout of $115,000.
We only had it insured at the amount we bought it for years ago. I never even thought about that end of it. You'd have thought our agent would have advised us. But it ultimately falls on me. I should have known.
If you think this thing may cause damage to your home, my advice is to get some plastic now, before it hits and put all your stuff you cannot take with you in the middle of the room and cover it with plastic.
Water is your worst enemy as far as your possessions.
Good luck and God Bless.
Ours was uped 10,000. Our policy goes up a little each year. I went and got that flood insurance the day after Emily came in. There was a 30 day waiting period. A month later I still had not received a policy so I called. For some reason it wasn't sent in but I had my receipt. I was told not to worry because even though my offical coverage begins 9/12/05 if something should happen in the mean time, that State Farm would cover me. That was nice but I'm sure glad I haven't had to put them to the test.
Oh absolutely I dont mind. Please do what ever will help your situation.
Our jmain problem was so many different adjustors that each said something different. The first one threatened that if we did not get all of the damaged stuff out of the house we would forfeit our protection. That it might cause mold and such.
We could not hire any one at that time, as everybody was in the same situation all over town. So we did it. You cannot imagine what it was like.. litterally 2 or 3 feet deep in debris all thru the house.. with the ceiling completely down on the floor.
Well we got it all out and to the dump. We did what the adjustor said. (He saw all our damaged posessions, btw. We made a list of the items that we could remember and took lots of pictures. We had also taken pictures of the stuff before the storm hit, right before we left for north Florida.
So take LOTS of pictures.
I am glad to hear you got flood insurance. Have had that since buying this place. I'm just reeling at $130K increase in 12 months - and that's just the homeowners policy. Haven't increased the flood coverage. Would prolly have to sell the house to cover a flood policy increase...
Friday Map (ECMWF):
...Ophelia slightly stronger but remains stationary... ...Little movement expected today...
At 5 am EDT...0900z...a portion of the Hurricane Watch area from Savannah River South Carolina northeastward to Edisto Beach South Carolina has been discontinued.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of the United States from north of Edisto Beach South Carolina northeastward to Cape Lookout North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch may have to be shifted northward later today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States coastal region should monitor the progress of Ophelia.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 31.7 north... longitude 75.9 west or about 250 miles... 405 km... east-southeast of Charleston South Carolina and about 245 miles... 390 km...south of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Ophelia is stationary and is expected to remain nearly stationary today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph... with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb...28.88 inches.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...31.7 N... 75.9 W. Movement ...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 978 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Knabb
Air Force recon measured a peak 700 mb flight level wind of 85 kt about 25 N mi west of the center as they departed from their last fix at around 06z. This is the strongest flight level wind reported to date in Ophelia and supports increasing the intensity to 75 kt. The most recent central pressure measured by dropsonde was 978 mb...basically unchanged during the past several hours. The 75 kt intensity is also consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates... although the data T numbers are only 4.0 due to the slight degradation of the satellite appearance since coming out of the GOES-12 eclipse period... so it is possible that Ophelia is again a little weaker than 75 kt. While Ophelia might be within an environment more conducive for strengthening once the upper level ridge reaches the East Coast and the longitude of the hurricane in a couple of days... the slow motion of Ophelia could cause ocean upwelling and provide a counteracting limitation on the intensity. Given this reasoning and that none of the intensity guidance forecasts significant changes... the official forecast maintains 75 kt through 72 hours...followed by weakening due to increasing shear and cooler waters ahead of the next midlatitude trough.
Ophelia remains stationary and sandwiched between strong and deep high pressure centers over the western half of the Atlantic and over the east half of the United States. Lacking a substantial change in this pattern during the next couple of days...very slow motion is expected. The midlatitude pattern is forecast by the dynamical models to become more progressive and move the U.S. Ridge offshore in about 3 days...followed by the next trough which should then finally get Ophelia moving northeastward. Perhaps due in part to the synoptic surveillance mission by the NOAA G-IV jet last night... some of the dynamical models have come into better agreement on the forecast track. The 00z GFS has shifted more than 100 miles westward and now forecasts landfall over the North Carolina Outer Banks in three to four days. This shift brings the GFS into remarkably good agreement with the 00z runs of the NOGAPS and UKMET. The new official forecast is adjusted somewhat to the east at 72 hours...and is a little faster therafter... to conform with this guidance...but is essentially unchanged during the period of slow motion through day two.
The new forecast implies a lesser possibility of Ophelia directly impacting the extreme southern end of the Hurricane Watch area... so a small portion of the watch has been discontinued...from Edisto Beach southward. However... throughout the remainder of the Hurricane Watch area... since Ophelia is not yet moving... it is still much too early to rule out the possibility of hurricane conditions.
Forecaster Knabb
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/0900z 31.7n 75.9w 75 kt 12hr VT 11/1800z 31.6n 76.0w 75 kt 24hr VT 12/0600z 31.6n 76.2w 75 kt 36hr VT 12/1800z 32.0n 76.5w 75 kt 48hr VT 13/0600z 32.6n 76.7w 75 kt 72hr VT 14/0600z 34.0n 76.5w 75 kt 96hr VT 15/0600z 36.5n 75.0w 50 kt 120hr VT 16/0600z 39.5n 71.0w 40 kt
For better or worse, my taste in women has always been, shall we say, "eclectic." My first wife named the first cockatiel "Flea," after a character in some forgotten book. Flea not only outlived wife #1, my Dad, and a few others, but lived to see wife #2 and a mate- Yomama, who wife #2 purchased & named.
Mrs. B is a former symphony musician ( Jax Symphony, First Flute, Principal Chair, and Service Keyboards )-- and besides being well-educated & intelligent, is possessed by a slightly weird ( non-linear? ) sense of humor.
The name is a play on fiddler YoYoMa's name...
...and yes, most people mis-hear the name, and think it's "YoMaMa!" With all the rude implications.
Birds have a weird, dim, and alien intelligence-- she calls me, my wife and dog by name, but having a syrynx instead of vocal cords, most syllables are slurred with an "R" prefix...
"Ron" ( John )
"Rem-ri-ry" ( Emily )
"Raff" ( Taffy )-- sometimes interchanged with "Roof" ( wolf? Ruff? )
And every time the phone rings, she says "Arr- Roe!" ( hello! )
The Navy's as well as most of the other major models are now showing this. Here's a link to a map (59k) of the Outer Banks area.
There's a local sushi place here named Mo-Mo-Ya.
Of course it would be easier to tell which joke you were telling if it weren't just on paper . . . saying it out loud would probably clear this one up . . . < g >
My favorite play on words is a now-defunct laundry in Darien, with the name "Press On!"
Its logo was a flying steam iron with Mercury-like wings.
Pretty mythological for a laundry in Darien . . . although there's somebody with a sense of humor around there, vide the "Kickin' Chicken" and the "Time After Time Cafe" (or is it the "All the Time Cafe"?)
If the house is a total loss, it looks like they would have to pay you the full amount on the possessions...not that I'm a lawyer, and not that I slept at a holiday inn last night....
After all the storms in Florida last year, we went back & insured our house & contents for replacement value, rather than actual value, but I have no idea how much of a fight there would be if we actually had a claim, and I hope never to have to find out, but weather is fickle.
Best of luck to you.
Seems to be working, so far! ;-)
As an added bonus, the weather here feels like fall this morning! Temps in the mid to high 60s, slightly breezy, and sunny!
"Time After Time Cafe" sort of rings a bell- we used to go to St. Andrew's up there, but it's been a while. Some of the sharpest ( and funniest ) people I've worked with or been around have been those "good old boys" ( and gals ) from out in the country.
My parents are members at St. Andrew's, so are almost all their friends . . . we sing in the choir whenever we visit down there. It's a cool little church, members are as you say sharp and funny. Their rector retired, and they have a supply while the search committee gets its act in gear, they should get a good one because the position is something of a plum, it's a very well endowed church for one way out in the country.
I had forgotten that about you- Father Bob Reese is the priest you mentioned-- Emily worked for him here for 10 years, and when he moved to Darien, ( she )we followed, and indeed were in the choir. Until that near-death experience in 2001 put a stop to it.
I keep forgetting he's retired now- where does the time go? It's like one of my old country friends used to say, "John, I don't know what's happened to time lately, but there seems to be a lot less of it..."
You're right about time . . . . seems like there's less and less of it. Seems like it was yesterday I brought my oldest home from the hospital -- now she's 17 and doing college applications (and grousing about it big time) and her baby brother is in high school. And my mama turned 79 in August . . . where DOES the time go?
All you can do is use wisely the time you have, I guess.
Behind the Parrish Hall at Christ Church, Frederica, there is a spherical tombstone ( which I was impressed enough with to get one for that #1 wife... ) and on it is this legend:
"The Greatest Maxim I can give
is make the most of the hours you live."
Truer words have not been written.
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