Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VIII

NOAA - NHC ^ | 29 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Category 4 Hurricane Katrina is approaching landfall in Eastern Louisiana. At 4:00AM EDT the storm's center was about 90 miles south of New Orleans.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Lake Ponchartrain Real Time Water Level

Wind Speed Data

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

Cut and Paste:

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_khou&props=livenoad

Fully-linked version of the live feeds (just in case a few people don't want to first open up WMP to cut-and-paste) -

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/

1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT

Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast

.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518 WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans via WESH-TV/DT Orlando - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38843.asx

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VII
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

That's not entirely accurate. It's always known that looters can be shot. During hurricane Hugo, Charleston Police Chief Greenberg said he wouldn't arrest the looters as he couldn't spare the people to guard them, but to beat and release them.

[spycatcher]

Well, there were posts about 100,000 deaths...I think I'd call that going over the top.

If another Cat 5+ were to actually hit N.O. next year you'd get the exact same estimate. 50K to 100K casualties. They just got lucky today.

[Diddle E. Squat]

He just phoned in, things have stabilized.

[PAR35]

I wouldn't worry about Itta Bena. It's up in Northwest Mississippi, well away from the Mississippi River and a lot closer to Memphis than it is to New Orleans. (Look between Greeville and Greewood).

[Steve_Seattle]

"Some of the cars coming back into the city aren't necessarily looters, IMO."

I should have mentioned that my comment about the cars coming into town being driven by looters was intended as a joke. There are probably plenty of potential looters already in NO, without them having to come in from elsewhere. :-)

[bwteim]

" before the cops come and let them go free after a day or two."

I don't think that is the choice of the police, is it? Probably ACLU after the fact. I am sure police would prefer to issue a stop or shoot order.

[maquiladora]

I was thinking more of Geraldo than TWC.

[sonofatpatcher2]

Re: "For what it's worth...when Hugo came through Charleston in 1989, it picked up the aircraft carrier Yorktown, moored at Patriot's Point, out of the mud and moved it five feet forward and five feet left. That's what somebody at Patriot's Point told me when I went and visited in 1991."

Momma Nature can do just about what she wants...

[mewzilla]

After they take care of their immediate needs, I'd say the folks in NO need to ask themselves some hard question about how their pumps are maintained.

[3dognight]

If you have a good broadband connection do wdsu.com. I don't know what kind of vehicle they are using, but they are driving through the streets. It looks bad there.

[the Deejay]

MSM doesn't mention A LOT of pertinent info!

I know. I am surprised they even mentioned snakes & gators.

[Howlin]

I love that man. Just love him.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Thank you for posting that analysis!

[LibSnubber]

FEMA director arrives in BR

FEMA Director Mike Brown arrived at the state Office
of Emergency Preparedness in Baton Rouge shortly
before 11 a.m. and joined a conference call with
Gov. Kathleen Blanco and other federal and state
officials.

Brown will hold a press briefing with Blanco at 3:30
p.m., although state officials could also provide more
information after a noon conference call with local
officials who are tracking the storm damage.

Researchers watching the storm from Baton Rouge have
gotten reports of 6 feet of water at Jackson
Barracks in the Lower 9th Ward, as well as flooding
along the Industrial Canal.

But Kevin Robbins, director of the Southern Regional
Climate Center at LSU, said that water should begin
receding around the Industrial Canal area. Robbins
said he hasn't had any reports of flooding in the
Uptown area.

During the height of the storm, 12 feet of water
was pushed up the Mississippi River in New Orleans,
Robbins said. There was also a 3-foot surge in the
river at Baton Rouge, but in both cases the water was
contained by the levees and did not go over the top.

But those kind of surges "could cause havoc with
boats," he said.

Many of the stations that record water surges in lakes
and rivers went out during the storm, so researchers
do not currently have much information about the worst
surges, Robbins said.

"We are working in a data poor environment," he said.

http://www.nola.com/newslogs/breakingtp/index.ssf?/mtlogs/nola_Times-Picayune/archives/2005_08.html#074785

[Abigail Adams]

Prez is up!

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Alert. President Bush speaking on MSNBC.

[deport]

Each storm has its own characteristics.... here is a photo from Besty ......

Click

[4everontheRight]

FNC reporting that damage to Gulfport and Biloxi is extensive. My dad lives in the town next to Long Beach and I sure would love someone to report on it

[Diddle E. Squat]

Either the Weather Channel or CNN had a reporter based in Mandeville last night. As the storm moves north, they may be reporting soon.

[Calpernia]

TCDAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005

THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS MAKING ITS SECOND NORTHERN GULF
COAST LANDFALL...NEAR THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. WSR-88D
RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS VERY INTENSE AND
DOPPLER VELOCITIES ARE NEAR 120 KT AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 5000 FT
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS...ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS
FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 110 KT. STEADY WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND. HOWEVER KATRINA HAS SUCH A
LARGE AND POWERFUL CIRCULATION THAT IT WILL PROBABLY RETAIN
HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS
WELL INLAND. THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES IS A
MAJOR CONCERN...AS IS FRESHWATER FLOODING.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
360/14. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.
KATRINA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A
CYCLONE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. KATRINA
IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND ITS IDENTITY...
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MERGES WITH A MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE.

SPECIAL THANKS ARE EXTENDED TO THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER CREWS STATIONED AT KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE IN
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI...WHO HAVE BEEN FLYING CONTINUOUS MISSIONS
THROUGH KATRINA EVEN AS THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES ARE BEING
SERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE.