Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 28 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico. Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans is finally underway. Louisiana officials are warning of complete failure to levy systems, and pleading with people to leave low lying areas. For those who choose to stay, they are recommending picks and axes for breaking through to access their roofs during flooding.

Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be rushing hurricane preparations to completion.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

http://www.wjbo.com - BR radio station. Callers calling in and describing traffic etc.
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518

Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[jeffers]

"Joe Bastardi on FoxNews just said that the brunt of this is likely to miss New Orleans to the east."


The storm is NOT headed for New Orleans now. It's current path would put it ashore well west of there.

All the models show it curving to the north as it nears the shoreline.

Trying to forecast the track and point of landfall is an exercise in futility in a case like this, unless you have access to at least two big Cray supercomps.

All we can do this time around is look at the modelled output updates. That goes for reporters too. If it doesn't have an HWC or IWIN or NWS stamp on it, don't buy into it.

[Howlin]

Joe Bastardi on FoxNews just said that the brunt of this is likely to miss New Orleans to the east.

I heard him and I didn't hear him say it was going to miss NO.

Here is my quote from what he said:

Bastardi saying on Fox "this is going to be like Camille, only wider."

[brytlea]

Oh great, I guess I will just throw out the food ruined by Katrina (power outage down here in S. Florida) and wait to buy more. In fact, I think we'll just start eating dried and canned foods..... I wish someone would invent a way of keeping food cold that didn't require either electricity or a gas powered generator.
susie

[plushaye]

"Joe Bastardi on FoxNews just said that the brunt of this is likely to miss New Orleans to the east. Still, there will be some storm surge from Lake Pointchange (sic) and likely the city will be under some water - probably 10-15 feet - but not the catastrophe others are predicting.

Gulfport, MS is looking to get the brunt right now. Almost certainly a bigger storm than Camille and that is saying a lot."

If this is true, could this be an answer to prayer for New Orleans??? I hope MS will also be spared.

[oceanview]

the north to south winds on the west side will force the lake up against the levees, if it breaches them, the city will flood. I do agree that its better for new orleans to be west of where the eye comes ashore, the flooding from the lake will be "better" then the dome of water from the gulf. What happens to Gulfport MS is another story.

[Altamira]

Don-o does not need to apologize. Many here questioned the validity of that information, as the link was not provided with the original information.

[Spiff]

Google Earth has 3D buildings in New Orleans. Here's a screenshot of the Superdome and surrounding buildings. It gets interesting when you overlay the hi-res reflectivity radar on top of the city to see which parts are experiencing the most rain and weather.

[filbert]

Please go read the NWS warning statement. There's no hype, this is the real thing this time. New Orleans is about to be hit by a 100-mile-wide tornado.

[dakine]

For the record: New Orleans Mayor does not have authority to order evacuation....

[metmom]

Surfactants would also kill marine life. Some animals depend on surface tension to keep from drowning. That's why spraying aphids with soapy water kills them on rose bushes. Heat and humidity fuel hurricanes.

[shelterguy]

My son goes to Tulane University in New Orleans. Hopefully he got out as I have not been able to contact him. He has weathered these before but nothing like this one.

[Types_with_Fist]

is it located on higher ground?

It's built up to be higher at its base than other structures in the area. So, yes, it is on relatively "higher ground."

[shield]

All those caps are about as hard to read as it gets...in fact, I'll not even to bother with it...makes my eyes hurt...can't comprehend caps...LOL

[commish]

NO, The Superdome is approx 14 ft below sea level and ground level. The Playing field is actually lower than that.

If NO floods they will basically have 100,000 people trapped in the upper deck in a domed structure with no power and a 20 ft lake below them.

[Dog]

Awwww come on....AQ isn't planning on a terror strike..

[mewzilla]

For the record: New Orleans Mayor does not have authority to order evacuation....

Issue or order? He can tell people to leave, can't he?

[Milwaukee_Guy]

"The employees of the greyhound bus stations left, so no bus service today. Commercial airlines cancelled flights even scheduled for yesterday, stranding passengers. Nobody seemed to care. Just why the military didn't send in C-30 or whatever they are called cargo planes, I don't know. I came up with that idea Friday night."

Many indications of a very uncoordinated state and local evacuation plan.

In an event of this magnitude there is a severe risk that many people will be caught out on the roads or in substandard shelter.

[bwteim]

I thought it was squared. E.g. double the wind speed, quadruple the force.

[Torie]

My examination of the terra server topo map suggests some areas in the bowl are above sea level (up to 10 feet), but maybe I am misreading it. Still the little lines have positive and negative numbers on them. How accurate the numbers are I don't know in any event. I wish someone here were really in the know.