Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 28 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico. Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans is finally underway. Louisiana officials are warning of complete failure to levy systems, and pleading with people to leave low lying areas. For those who choose to stay, they are recommending picks and axes for breaking through to access their roofs during flooding.

Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be rushing hurricane preparations to completion.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

http://www.wjbo.com - BR radio station. Callers calling in and describing traffic etc.
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518

Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Black Tooth]

Fox news just said lots of tourists are stranded. Can't get a plane or bus out. If the hotel they are staying at is going to remain open and management is confident it will survive the hurricane, why not go out to Bourbon St.? What else are they going to do?

The people in the bars were telling the press that they "chose" not to leave.

[RDTF]

carolyn I like Shep but I'm not so sure he likes women. Just a hunch.

[Lijahsbubbe]

Where is Shep gonna go? He's stuck.

Fox can't get him outta there? I'm not watching TV. Are the winds that bad already?

[Peach]

Hi, Northern. We're in S.C. so I'm not really quite sure how those parishes work. Hope you're well out of harm's way.

[AntiGuv]

It could still quite plausibly go anywhere from Matagorda Bay in Texas to Tampa Bay in Florida, but there's probably about a 90% chance it's gonna be somewhere between Pensacola and due south of Lafayette, and most of the computer models have it firmly on track for just east of Lake Pontchartrain and New Orleans.

[shield]

I've got some cousins who are on the 7th floor of an apartment building west of New Orleans.

How scary!!!

[hole_n_one]

Shep made sure he would be in the middle of this.

He's gonna be right-smack dab in the middle!

[rickylc]

902 mb now

URNT12 KNHC 281950
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/1923Z
B. 26 DEG 34 MIN N
88 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2235 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 225 DEG 148 KT
G. 126 DEG 18 NM
H. 902 MB
I. 14 C/ 3055 M
J. 29 C/ 3032 M
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1812A KATRINA OB 12
MAX FL WIND 160 KTS NE QUAD 1743Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

[Tarpon]

Yeah I heard that too, 20 mile diameter, I don't believe it, but the storm does go through EWR, so who knows. The TV is likely to be the last to get it right :)

[rwfromkansas]

It is my worry that it will not undergo an ERC either. This may already be an annular hurricane and will stay at this strength or grow before landfall.

People on the Easternwx boards are saying...."north turn" and that it will miss NO.

Well, the reality is, it actually is tracking slightly to the WEST of the forecast track.

It will go in between NO and Gulfport, but probably closer to NO.

We will not see the ultimate disaster we could have seen if it went right over the city, but the thing is, with a cat 5 with a huge eye and large area of cat 4 and 5 winds, the ANGLE OF APPROACH MATTERS NIL.

Hundreds will still probably die and the city will still probably flood really bad.

[Michael Goldsberry]

"how far west of NO is Galveston?"

I'll guess about 350 miles.

However, if Katrina doesn't take that Northern turn soon, we may get it.

The area I'm in is all wood-frame housing. Nothing here would survive a storm of this magnitude.

[Founding Father]

You're correct, water is now moving into Lake Ponthchartrain from the eastern surge. The latest eye path has it going to the east of the lake with the north winds blowing the water from the full lake over (through?) the levee.

[al baby]

Going to the movies place marker

[mhking]

Scary yes, but less so than this morning, when one of the cousins said she wanted to stay with her house.

[mware]

Prayers up for their safety.

[mabelkitty]

I was pretty harsh with them last night, but I'll cut them slack and here's why:
They are both new to their posts. To declare a mandatory evacuation, they were required to have shelters to house those who had to be evacuated. It appears they were waiting for people to leave on their own first so they could shelter 100,000 or less. The Dome only holds 20,000 to 30,000 people.
Like President Bush, they inherited a mess left by previous administrations and are now expected to make miracles because money was spent elsewhere and not for an event that may or may not destroy their city and devastate their state.

[Peach]

Mozie, you know I pray for your dear son every day. And it sounds like he will indeed be very busy over the next few days and weeks.

[flutters]

Thanks for the confirmation.

[mhking]

Thanks, I appreciate it.

[meyer]

Geraldo has been duct taped to the Hilton's top floor. LOL

The big question is 'Where's Jim Cantore?'