Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 28 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico. Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans is finally underway. Louisiana officials are warning of complete failure to levy systems, and pleading with people to leave low lying areas. For those who choose to stay, they are recommending picks and axes for breaking through to access their roofs during flooding.

Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be rushing hurricane preparations to completion.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

http://www.wjbo.com - BR radio station. Callers calling in and describing traffic etc.
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518

Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[jslade]

I doubt there will be hundreds.

My guess would be thousands.

[steveegg]

Stay safe. Where in relation to New Orleans is that?

[filbert]

Cindy Sheehan...the witch in the Texas ditch.

Can we please give the Sheehan thing a rest on this thread? Thanks.

[Dog Gone]

Excellent reference page. Thanks.

[conservative cat]

Yup. I was telling another poster I've been in Southern California my entire life, and never sustained any earthquake damage, nor have any of my other family members living here.

I'm in Washington and all I lost in our last major earthquake (in 01) was a glass that was too close to the edge of the counter. Most people I knew had no major damage and my family in So. Cal has never sustained notable damage. The only advantage to a hurricane is at least you have some warning. Overall, I'd take the earthquake to the hurricane, but it's a bit of a fright when you are going about your day and a major earthquake hits. There's not time for mental prep! The minute it can take feels forever when you're in the moment, too.

[dakine]

Jim Cantore is telling it like it is...

[Jeff Head]

Cat 1 tomorrow morning will be a miracle and a direct answer to prayer. Right now the thing is barreling down on NO at Cat 5, 180+ MPH winds and pressure at 902 mb. Those are facts and no amount of cavalierly writing it off will change that.

I pray the miracle occurs...but if I were in its path I would already be over in Houston or Mobile.

[spycatcher]

From Stratfor:

The Port of Southern Louisiana is the fifth-largest port in the world in terms of tonnage, and the largest port in the United States. The only global ports larger are Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai and Hong Kong. It is bigger than Houston, Chiba and Nagoya, Antwerp and New York/New Jersey. It is a key link in U.S. imports and exports and critical to the global economy.

...The Port of Southern Louisiana is a river port. It depends on the navigability of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi is notorious for changing its course, and in southern Louisiana -- indeed along much of its length -- levees both protect the land from its water and maintain its course and navigability. Dredging and other maintenance are constant and necessary to maintain its navigability. It is fragile.

...# The port might become in whole or part unusable if levees burst. If the damage to the river and port facilities could not be repaired within 30 days when the U.S. harvests are at their peak, the effect on global agricultural prices could be substantial.

# There is a large refinery at Belle Chasse. It is the only refinery that is seriously threatened by the storm, but if it were to be inundated, 250,000 barrels per day would go off line. Moreover, the threat of environmental danger would be substantial.

[jimbergin]

"MSNBC had life feed from local stations in NO for a few minutes. I wish our cable stations would allow more of that, as it was very interesting."


http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad
live feed from NO. If this link soesnot work goto

http://www.wwltv.com/
and link to live feed

[flutters]

The station I'm listening to said in about one hour they would open both sides of the interstate to outgoing only.

[Carolinamom]

I was answering a question posed by tiredoflaundry.

[commish]

The only thing that might help slightly, is I'm am under the impression that the eye tends to form, and then degrade and then reform in a cycle, and it may reach its max formation before it hits land, and be weakening a little bit.

We can hope for an ERC before landfall but it is very unlikely. Katrina is now what is known as an Annular Hurricane, meaning she has reached a "steady-state" condition.

In layman's terms she is now feeding herself, and should not weaken significantly without an outside influence. The only possible influences to her now are a trough in the great lakes that is helping cause the Northerly turn, but it is probably to far away to caue any sheer. There is also some dry air northwest of her, but she is basically punching into it and pushing it out of the way instead of absorbing it.

Without these influences to cause fluctuation there is nothing to cause her eyewall to collapse and ignite a replacement cycle.

THis really is now worst case scenario for a landfalling hurricane. 90-92 degree water, no sheer, steady state storm. There will be no Rapid intensification, that is done, but she will maintain or slightly strengthen from now until landfall.

[Tarpon]

I heard when Katrina bridges the gap, it will turn north, right at NO. Guy on the Ham BBS who says he knows, so use at your own risk.

[abb]

Neil Franks (former NHC director) always feard ppl trapped in their cars with nowhere to go.

[Howlin]

Now he's arguing with Bastardi.

That was shockingly stupid, wasn't it????

[Styria]

If you're going to nuke a hurricane, I would save it for a war with China. If it works (dissipates the storm), hey, good for them and hopefully good for combat operations. But a cyclonic storm is a heat engine, and you would be giving it a whole lot of energy, and the mushroom cloud comes from surface elements being swept into the pressure low. You could make it a more powerful storm, even if only for a short while. So, try it in someone else's back yard first.

[Willie Green]

Well, those people can yuk it up now, but when it hits, they'll be singing a different tune.

Down in the Flood
(Bob Dylan - 1967)

Crash on the levee, mama,
Water's gonna overflow,
Swamp's gonna rise,
No boat's gonna row.
Now, you can train on down
To Williams Point,
You can bust your feet,
You can rock this joint.
But oh mama, ain't you gonna miss your best friend now?
You're gonna have to find yourself
Another best friend, somehow.

Now, don't you try an' move me,
You're just gonna lose.
There's a crash on the levee
And, mama, you've been refused.
Well, it's sugar for sugar
And salt for salt,
If you go down in the flood,
It's gonna be your own fault.
Oh mama, ain't you gonna miss your best friend now?
You're gonna have to find yourself
Another best friend, somehow.

Well, that high tide's risin',
Mama, don't you let me down.
Pack up your suitcase,
Mama, don't you make a sound.
Now, it's king for king,
Queen for queen,
It's gonna be the meanest flood
That anybody's seen.
Oh mama, ain't you gonna miss your best friend now?
Yes, you're gonna have to find yourself
Another best friend, somehow.

[oceanview]

aren't people going to start running out of gas at some point, just sitting there idling. and the ones who fled east, if the forecasts are right, the storm is going east of new orleans.

[GOP_Proud]

When Laurie introduced Shep's report, she mentioned that Shep knew NO well. I thought he was from Florida, so I'm not sure why.

[glock rocks]

I just went out and filled up our tank. $2.53 in New Jersey

Holy cow! It cost me $56 to fill mine here in Utah :o)

sorry, couldn't resist. $2.45 here.