Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[silentknight]

Great map there nwc.

[Dog Gone]

Unbelievable. The spaghetti map looks like a rope. And New Orleans continues to party.

Make it a good one, folks.

[Diddle E. Squat]

After looking over several of the websites that talk about and model the catastrophic hits, I think I can sketch out a rough window of where the eye has to pass for the levees to be overtopped (levee or pump failure is another matter.) For a Cat 4 storm, it would need to cross within a rough arc that runs from the MS/LA border, bows out a bit east of Alluvial City, down to Bohemia, west to Larose and Raceland, and north to Reserve(west of the I-10/I-55 split.) If runs east or west enough to stay out of that arc, regardless of angle, in theory the city should be spared the storm surge flood filling the bowl.

[dawn53]

While I was watching the Bourbon Street cam the street band was playing "Yellow Submarine"...that might be prophetic.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

They've had to evacuate too many times for them to be sensible, although I have heard that the highways really are full of people heading out. I have a friend there waiting...she has to have her son drive her and he's waiting until tomorrow to see what the storm will do.

If it were me, I'd go. This one reminds me too much of the track of Betsy for my comfort level.

[dawn53]

Someone earlier in the day posted this. It's an interesting read.

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/specialreports/hurricanes/vulnerablecities/neworleans.html

[shield]

XTRP...that's the best track for US...not good for Mexico, though...

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Watches are extended to MS and AL.

[Strategerist]

XTRP isn't a model, it's a straight extrapolation of the motion for the last few hours.

It has precisely zero chance of being correct.

[nwctwx]

Model bias has been west this season... though, if they only shift slightly east, NO is more under the gun. Still waiting for the turn.

[Dog Gone]

How wide is that arc?

[shield]

OH...are the others tracks?

[Amelia]

And the band plays on in Jackson Square, the buggy rides are still operating, the bars open, and the tourists out. It could be the makings of a very horrific tragedy.

Looks like the mayor would go ahead & shut everything down & call for a mandatory evacuation.

Kind of like watching a train wreck about to happen.

[Termite_Commander]

On the TWC's satellite image, there's a well defined eye forming.

[Strategerist]

Well OFCI is the official track...the others are various computer models.

It's rare to see them that tightly clustered. The models vary in quality and reliability so if they were scattered you'd have to know about the quality of each, but in this case, you really don't.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Roughly 30 miles outside the levees (not city center) on the east and south, a bit less on the west.

[Torie]

That about frames Lake Pontchartrain.

[janetjanet998]

NO traffic cams on I-10 showing much lighter traffic then before...its almost like some people left right away but most are staying put

[Ellesu]

Just heard the mayor on WWL 870 am...no mandatory evacuation, He is "encouraging all to leave and will be a little more forceful in the am". "Superdome will open at 8am Sunday for special needs people. All those who can't get out, with no medical needs, no transportation, etc. will be picked up by bus around noon Sunday."

No studies have ever been done to show if the Superdome can withstand a major hurricane. No study has been done to see if generators in the dome will work in the event of a major hurricane.

[shield]

What about your program...is it doing the same thing...?? Pointing toward NO?