Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[rwfromkansas]

If you know anybody there, tell them.

Otherwise, pray. I posted on my blog a request for prayer. That seems to be all one can do unless you are close or know somebody there.

[pollyg107]

You are so right about Gov. Blanco. She is an idiot. I pray she hasn't caused people to be complacent and stay in New Orleans. I heard her on the radio and got so mad I almost beat my steering wheel to death!!!

[Charge Carrier]

I'm flying from Houston to Mobile tomorrow afternoon on an Embraer ERJ-145. I wonder if there might be some risk for problems?

[beyond the sea]

This pic is of a dog on the roof, wonder how he got there?

dog weathervane

;-)

[dogbyte12]

What about I-12 and below evacs? I am confuzzled.

[NautiNurse]

Very scary--good find.

[Strategerist]

It's actually SUPPOSED to be heading NW tomorrow.

There isn't a single model with a landfall west of Eastern Louisiana and Katrina is already significantly N of that one...

Once you get a strong, well developed storm, really the model consensus these days for a 48 hour forecast is never so drastically wrong so as to have Katrina hitting Texas.

[fatima]

Hi NautiNurse,Thank you for your work on these threads.I am following down the shore.We are in Ocean City New Jersey for the weekend.

[Ellesu]

What has Ronnie Hughes or whoever is in charge of Ascension Parish saying?

[LibSnubber]

He's helping some older relatives secure their property and then will be bringing them to our house here in Acadiana. And hopefully we won't all have to evacuate from here because we've made no plans. That's why I've been here with you guys, so I can give him the best info. Told him how prime the highways are looking right now and hopefully, they'll get out of there within the next hour or two.

[fooman]

adults steppin in. mayB LA could rent jeb

[NautiNurse]

Shouldn't be a problem if it's not too late in the day. Will keep an eye out for winds picking up. This storm has really grown in size today, with winds in excess of 34 mph extending outward 160 miles. Will also need to watch for feeder bands.

[Ellesu]

You are so right about Gov. Blanco. She is an idiot. I pray she hasn't caused people to be complacent and stay in New Orleans. I heard her on the radio and got so mad I almost beat my steering wheel to death!!!



"Bring PB and J sandwiches with you and pray it away."

[beyond the sea]

He's talking about various path scenarios and mentioning 20 ft. of water entering Lakes Catherine and Pontchartrain. ---

***

Unreal (amazing)

[NautiNurse]

adults steppin in. mayB LA could rent jeb

Good point!

[LA Woman3]

St. Tammany Parish....south of I-12....Lake Ponchatrain is expected to have large storm surge.

[janetjanet998]

weather channel just said the mayor will make a decision rather to evac. NO tomorrow morning..WTF?....way too late

[dogbyte12]

oh shoot. I am in ascension below I-12. Was wondering if they were going to make me scadaddle.

[SunnySide]

See radar photo on Drudge site. This hurricane is so huge, it appears to have two eyes! And it's pull is so strong you can see in the latest radar photo how great it's pull is, pulling in clouds(strength) from the Atlantic ocean and even on the west side of South America !! IMO, people in New Orleans NEED to evacuate now. Your supplies won't last the time it will take for the water to go down and electricity to be repaired, etc.

[gov_bean_ counter]

New coordinates show a bump to the north which, given how erratic this storm has been, may or may not mean anything.