Hurricane/TS Katrina Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 26 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Katrina is emerging into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico early this morning after making landfall in SE Florida, then tracking SW. Thus far, she is well ahead of schedule, leaving at least four fatalities in her wake, and well over 1 million without electricity.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

Key West Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Excellent South FL radar loop

Tampa Bay Long Range Radar Loop

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[shield]

but will be relieved when it finally curves.

ME TOO...a cane in Houston is every ones worst nighmare...

Looks like we're losing our F-16 Protection...I don't get it...these jets protect our area...I'm pissed...

[NautiNurse]

ok--thanks for your feedback.

[NautiNurse]

looking at the track projection overlay in the Storm Floater, it looks like it's going along the current projection.

[eastforker]

I loved the fly overs when I worked at ExxonMuobil in Baytown.

[STARWISE]

Well, that's very good ..thanks .. what other thread?

[NautiNurse]

Nice track comparison--thanks!

[Tall_Texan]

That looks more like the shape of my Stratolounger recliner.

I was expecting the actual ROAD to rise and dip.

[jsh3180]

""The middle and lower Keys are still getting buckets .. I haven't seen any flyovers from KeyWest .. has anyone? I can't imagine how the Keys will deal with this much rain.""


13.73 inches of rain so far here on Sugarloaf Key, 17 miles north of KW and still coming down. Wind is finally letting off a bit, but expecting 5-8 more inches of rain before it's over. No flooding to speak of here on Sugarloaf, it just runs off into the ocean or the canals. Talked to my son who lives in Key West about an hour ago and the streets are pretty well flooded there.

[Tall_Texan]

I saw a survey done last month and I think 65-70% of people in that soup bowl (New Orleans) said they would not evacuate even if a Cat 3 or 4 were to hit.

If so, I hope they all head to the French Quarter and have one last drink and then, as the eye wall pass over them, they can all yell "Hey Katrina! Show us your..."

[eastforker]

Oh yeah, home of the Hurricane!!

[numberonepal]

It the suspension bridge that's part of the Mobile/Tensaw River waterway collection of bridges on I-65.

[Ellesu]

There ya go! Drinking Hurricanes at Pat O's! I do hope they are paying attention...From the 5pm discussion:

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE GULF LOOP CURRENT AFTER 36 HOURS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH BRING KATRINA UP TO 118 KT. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS MORE
ROBUST AND BRINGS KATRINA UP TO 129KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.

[lifacs]

He was on the RUSH(radio) thread earlier today.

[STARWISE]

Thanks for checking in ... wow .. glad you're safe. Key west has to be just swimming. Just found this.

MONROE LOWER KEYS- 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...HEAVY RAIN AND STREET FLOODING IN THE LOWER KEYS...

HEAVY RAIN IN BANDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN THE LOWER KEYS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...AND STREET FLOODING IS WIDESPREAD. TRAVEL IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AND THE AUTHORITIES ASK THAT WE STAY OFF THE ROADS.

THE RAIN IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. HERE ARE SOME PEAK WIND GUSTS REPORTED OVER THE PAST HOUR.

SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT 56 MPH.
KEY WEST AIRPORT 64 MPH.
SAND KEY LIGHT 70 MPH.
TORTUGAS 105 MPH.

Jeeze .. still lousy with high winds.

[STARWISE]

Ok .. thanks. I'm surprised if he's got power that he's not here. Wonder if he was on before the tornado and now can't for that or other storm problem.

[Ellesu]

LOL! See post #469.

[onyx]

There's so many "if's" and "could's" in the weather forecasts to drive a sane person nuts.

Now they're talking a possible CAT 4 slamming the gulfcoast.

[Spiff]

Google Earth screenshot of storm track forecasts and live hi-res reflectivity Radar (1901 EDT). The storm track data is a data layer that I just found for Google Earth. It includes all kinds of storm track data, satellite images, and even wind shear diagrams. Pretty cool stuff. Remember, this is free stuff anyone can download into the free and totally awesome Google Earth application.

I made this image smaller because 2 people complained that dial-up users may choke on the larger graphics.

[Moby Grape]

Is the posted photo of the Memphis to Arkansas bridge?

[gov_bean_ counter]

We have one of those over the Mobile Delta. Affectionately known as the "Dolly Parton Bridge".