Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image
Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images
Cancun Radar Very Slow Load
Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)
Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband
Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure |
Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 (weak) |
75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s |
> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa |
4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m |
minimal damage to vegetation |
2 (moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s |
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m |
moderate damage to houses |
3 (strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s |
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m |
extensive damage to small buildings |
4 (very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s |
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa |
13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m |
extreme structural damage |
5 (devastating) |
> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s |
< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa |
> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m |
catastrophic building failures possible |
double eyewalls there?
It looks like it is going to NAIL Cozumel, one of the few places in Mexico that I like.
The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC/TPC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum 34-kt wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC/TPC. The NHC/TPC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones. Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the TPC/NHC and proceed at their own risk. The danger area will not be depicted from tropical cyclones when they become extratropical.
That's a big bouy. I was expecting a large ball or ballon or something.
What gives? I've been watching TWC and Brownsville just barely in the cone but I just checked the path and projection links at the beginning of this thread and we are a lot closer.
22 ft waves?! I wonder how high Cozumel is above sea level.
About 21 ft. Just kidding, but it didn't seem very high when I was there years ago.
...Extremely dangerous category four Emily continuing west-northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible over portions of extreme western Cuba.
Interests in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico...as well as in southern Texas...should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 19.4 north...longitude 85.2 west or about 135 miles... 215 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico and about 320 miles... 515 km...east-southeast of Progreso Mexico.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Emily is expected to reach the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Monday morning...and move across the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the day on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Emily a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes...but little overall change in strength is expected before Emily makes landfall. Weakening is then expected as the center of Emily crosses the Yucatan Peninsula.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph with a gust to 69 mph.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb...27.99 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in Mexico. Above normal tides in the Cayman Islands should subside tonight.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over western Cuba. While some outer rain bands may continue to affect the Cayman Islands...in general rainfall should decrease across those islands this evening.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...19.4 N... 85.2 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Beven
I hope all the tourists are gone or hunkered down. This is going to be a direct blow.
the last reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter indciated that the central pressure of Emily had risen to 948 mb...and that the maximum 700 mb flight-level winds had decreased to 134 kt in the north quadrant. Since the plane left...there are mixed signals on the structure. Satellite imagery shows that the overall cloud pattern is better organized and that there has been significant cloud top cooling near the center. However...the eye has become much less distinct. The initial intensity is set to 125 kt based on the last aircraft data. The Cancun radar suggests an outer eyewall may be forming...although the radar can not yet reliably see the precipitation east of the eye.
The initial motion is 295/17...just a little right of 6 hr ago. There have been some changes in the track model guidance...likely due to better model analyses of the mid-latitude trough over the northwestern United States and its subsequent impact on the southern U.S. Ridge. Large-scale models are now calling for more of a weakness in the ridge over the western Gulf Coast. This causes the track guidance to forecast less of a westward turn while Emily is over the Gulf of Mexico...which causes the models to forecast landfall farther to the north over northeastern Mexico. The official forecast track is moved a little northward in response to the guidance shift and is now in the middle of the guidance envelope instead of the northern edge. This change in the forecast track increases the threat to southern Texas.
Given the cooling tops and the improvement in the overall cloud pattern...a burst of intensification prior to landfall cannot be ruled out. However...if an outer eyewall is forming this becomes less likely. Emily should weaken after landfall...then re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. How much Emily could intensify over the Gulf will depend on just what structure emerges from Yucatan...so there is a larger than normal possible error on the 24-48 hr intensity forecasts. Nevertheless...Emily is expected to make landfall on the North American Mainland as a major hurricane.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/2100z 19.4n 85.2w 125 kt 12hr VT 18/0600z 20.4n 87.5w 125 kt...inland 24hr VT 18/1800z 21.8n 90.4w 90 kt...over water 36hr VT 19/0600z 23.0n 93.2w 100 kt 48hr VT 19/1800z 23.9n 95.7w 105 kt 72hr VT 20/1800z 25.0n 100.5w 65 kt...inland 96hr VT 21/1800z 25.5n 105.0w 20 kt...inland dissipating 120hr VT 22/1800z...dissipated
Large-scale models are now calling for more of a weakness in the ridge over the western Gulf Coast. This causes the track guidance to forecast less of a westward turn while Emily is over the Gulf of Mexico...which causes the models to forecast landfall farther to the north over northeastern Mexico.
Probably better for us that they don't!
"We dont know how much the Yucatan will weaken Emily. Stay tuned."
I don't think the Weather Channel is that dependable. They just said the latest advisory would be out in a few minutes. But FR has it already thanks to NautiNurse.
Interesting... I mentioned yesterday that we should have a better idea once the shortwave was on land.. that seems to be the case. I haven't had a ton of time today to look things over, will have to get a better chance after dinner.
she hasn't shown much sign of turning more westerly yet..
The small circulation will be disrupted easier than a larger storm... if she stays over land for 12 hours, she could come out as a very weak hurricane, or TS. 8 hours would probably pull her down to about 90-100 mph. It will be interesting to see where she ends up making landfall, the further NE on the Yucatan... the less time she'll be over land. The energy over the water doesn't mean much when the center is on land.
Thanks nwctwx. I love to listen to you talk about weather.
bbl
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.