Hurricane Emily (Live Thread, Part II)

NHC-NOAA ^ | 16 July 2005 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image

Western Caribbean Bouy Data

Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images

Grand Cayman Weather

Cozumel Weather

Cancun Weather

Cancun Radar Very Slow Load

Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions

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Some more resources:

Hurricane City

Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)

Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband

Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info

Another colorful IR Satellite loop

The Saffir-Simpson Scale. Source: Hurricane Categories

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
1 (weak)	75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s	> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa	4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m	minimal damage to vegetation
2 (moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s	28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa	6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m	moderate damage to houses
3 (strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s	27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa	9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m	extensive damage to small buildings
4 (very strong)	131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s	27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa	13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m	extreme structural damage
5 (devastating)	> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s	< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa	> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m	catastrophic building failures possible

Hurricane Emily Live Thread, Part I

Some more resources:

Hurricane City

Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)

Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband

Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info

Another colorful IR Satellite loop

[rwfromkansas]

double eyewalls there?

[Dog Gone]

These things can be misleading, but it looks currently slightly north of the forecast path to me, too.

It looks like it is going to NAIL Cozumel, one of the few places in Mexico that I like.

[No Blue States]

I wonder how accurate the 1 2 3 rule is? Never heard of it. But I see Galveston is withint the cone.

The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC/TPC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum 34-kt wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC/TPC. The NHC/TPC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones. Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the TPC/NHC and proceed at their own risk. The danger area will not be depicted from tropical cyclones when they become extratropical.

[NautiNurse]

Buoy 42056 now 22ft waves.

[CindyDawg]

That's a big bouy. I was expecting a large ball or ballon or something.

[CindyDawg]

What gives? I've been watching TWC and Brownsville just barely in the cone but I just checked the path and projection links at the beginning of this thread and we are a lot closer.

[No Blue States]

22 ft waves?! I wonder how high Cozumel is above sea level.

[NautiNurse]

SE TX is definitely still in the "cone of uncertainty." The folks in Punta Gorda were there too last year--but everyone had focused on the black line until Charley made the turn. By then it was too late.

[Ditter]

About 21 ft. Just kidding, but it didn't seem very high when I was there years ago.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 28
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 17, 2005

...Extremely dangerous category four Emily continuing
west-northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from
Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to
Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres.  A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from
Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
Tropical storm conditions are also possible over portions of extreme
western Cuba.

 
Interests in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico...as well as in
southern Texas...should monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 19.4 north...longitude  85.2 west or about  135 miles...
215 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico and about  320 miles... 515
km...east-southeast of Progreso Mexico.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.  On
the forecast track...the center of Emily is expected to reach the
northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early
Monday morning...and move across the northern Yucatan Peninsula
during the day on Monday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  This makes Emily a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are common in
major hurricanes...but little overall change in strength is
expected before Emily makes landfall.  Weakening is then expected
as the center of Emily crosses the Yucatan Peninsula.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.  NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported sustained
winds of 58 mph with a gust to 69 mph.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  948 mb...27.99 inches.

 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 8 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Mexico.  Above normal tides in the Cayman Islands should subside
tonight.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over western Cuba.
While some outer rain bands may continue to affect the Cayman
Islands...in general rainfall should decrease across those islands
this evening.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...19.4 N... 85.2 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

[Dog Gone]

I hope all the tourists are gone or hunkered down. This is going to be a direct blow.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 28
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on July 17, 2005

 
the last reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
indciated that the central pressure of Emily had risen to 948
mb...and that the maximum 700 mb flight-level winds had decreased
to 134 kt in the north quadrant.  Since the plane left...there are
mixed signals on the structure.  Satellite imagery shows that the
overall cloud pattern is better organized and that there has been
significant cloud top cooling near the center.  However...the eye
has become much less distinct.  The initial intensity is set to 125
kt based on the last aircraft data.  The Cancun radar suggests an
outer eyewall may be forming...although the radar can not yet
reliably see the precipitation east of the eye.

The initial motion is 295/17...just a little right of 6 hr ago. 
There have been some changes in the track model guidance...likely
due to better model analyses of the mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern United States and its subsequent impact on the
southern U.S. Ridge.  Large-scale models are now calling for more
of a weakness in the ridge over the western Gulf Coast.  This
causes the track guidance to forecast less of a westward turn while
Emily is over the Gulf of Mexico...which causes the models to
forecast landfall farther to the north over northeastern Mexico. 
The official forecast track is moved a little northward in response
to the guidance shift and is now in the middle of the guidance
envelope instead of the northern edge.  This change in the forecast
track increases the threat to southern Texas.

 
Given the cooling tops and the improvement in the overall cloud
pattern...a burst of intensification prior to landfall cannot be
ruled out.  However...if an outer eyewall is forming this becomes
less likely.  Emily should weaken after landfall...then
re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico.  How much Emily could
intensify over the Gulf will depend on just what structure emerges
from Yucatan...so there is a larger than normal possible error on
the 24-48 hr intensity forecasts.  Nevertheless...Emily is expected
to make landfall on the North American Mainland as a major
hurricane.

 
Forecaster Beven

 

forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      17/2100z 19.4n  85.2w   125 kt
 12hr VT     18/0600z 20.4n  87.5w   125 kt...inland
 24hr VT     18/1800z 21.8n  90.4w    90 kt...over water
 36hr VT     19/0600z 23.0n  93.2w   100 kt
 48hr VT     19/1800z 23.9n  95.7w   105 kt
 72hr VT     20/1800z 25.0n 100.5w    65 kt...inland
 96hr VT     21/1800z 25.5n 105.0w    20 kt...inland dissipating
120hr VT     22/1800z...dissipated

[NautiNurse]

Did you see this in the discussion...

Large-scale models are now calling for more of a weakness in the ridge over the western Gulf Coast. This causes the track guidance to forecast less of a westward turn while Emily is over the Gulf of Mexico...which causes the models to forecast landfall farther to the north over northeastern Mexico.

[SouthTexas]

Why dont they use 2?

Probably better for us that they don't!

[No Blue States]

How much Emily could intensify over the Gulf will depend on just what structure emerges from Yucatan...so there is a larger than normal possible error on the 24-48 hr intensity forecasts.

"We dont know how much the Yucatan will weaken Emily. Stay tuned."

[RGVTx]

I don't think the Weather Channel is that dependable. They just said the latest advisory would be out in a few minutes. But FR has it already thanks to NautiNurse.

[nwctwx]

Interesting... I mentioned yesterday that we should have a better idea once the shortwave was on land.. that seems to be the case. I haven't had a ton of time today to look things over, will have to get a better chance after dinner.

[nwctwx]

she hasn't shown much sign of turning more westerly yet..

[nwctwx]

Do you think she enters the GOM as a 2 or 3?

The small circulation will be disrupted easier than a larger storm... if she stays over land for 12 hours, she could come out as a very weak hurricane, or TS. 8 hours would probably pull her down to about 90-100 mph. It will be interesting to see where she ends up making landfall, the further NE on the Yucatan... the less time she'll be over land. The energy over the water doesn't mean much when the center is on land.

[No Blue States]

Thanks nwctwx. I love to listen to you talk about weather.

bbl