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Hurricane Emily (Live Thread, Part II)
NHC-NOAA ^ | 16 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image

Western Caribbean Bouy Data

Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images

Grand Cayman Weather

Cozumel Weather

Cancun Weather

Cancun Radar Very Slow Load

Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions



Some more resources:

Hurricane City

Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)

Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband

Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info

Another colorful IR Satellite loop


The Saffir-Simpson Scale. Source: Hurricane Categories
Category Wind Speed Barometric
Pressure
Storm Surge Damage Potential
1
(weak)
75 - 95 mph
65 - 82 kts
33 - 42 m/s
> 28.94 in. Hg
> 980.0 mb
> 97.7 kPa
4.0 - 5.0 ft.
1.2 - 1.5 m
minimal damage to vegetation
2
(moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
43 - 49 m/s
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg
965.1 - 979.7 mb
96.2 - 97.7 kPa
6.0 - 8.0 ft.
1.8 - 2.4 m
moderate damage to houses
3
(strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 113 kts
50 - 58 m/s
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg
945.1 - 964.8 mb
96.2 - 97.7 kPa
9.0 - 12.0 ft.
2.7 - 3.7 m
extensive damage to small buildings
4
(very strong)
131 - 155 mph
114 - 135 kts
59 - 69 m/s
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg
920.1 - 944.8 mb
91.7 - 94.2 kPa
13.0 - 18.0 ft.
3.9 - 5.5 m
extreme structural damage
5
(devastating)
> 155 mph
> 135 kts
> 70 m/s
< 27.17 in Hg
< 920.1 mb
< 91.7 kPa
> 18.0 ft
> 5.5 m
catastrophic building failures possible


Hurricane Emily Live Thread, Part I


TOPICS: Mexico; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; tropical; weather
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To: Miztiki

Guilty here also. I use an envelope. LOL


301 posted on 07/17/2005 10:40:06 AM PDT by dc-zoo
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To: dc-zoo

lol! I dont feel so bad now that other use the same method.


302 posted on 07/17/2005 10:40:41 AM PDT by No Blue States
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To: All; No Blue States; NautiNurse

The eye of Emily is starting to show up on Cancun radar.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg


303 posted on 07/17/2005 10:45:00 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...19.0 N... 84.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.


304 posted on 07/17/2005 10:47:07 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

I'm having NO LUCK opening that link...can you help maybe posting a pic. Thanks. ;o)


305 posted on 07/17/2005 10:50:04 AM PDT by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: No Blue States

Thanks. I'm fine.


306 posted on 07/17/2005 10:51:16 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: nwctwx
Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 27a

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on July 17, 2005

 
...Reconaissance aircraft finds Emily slightly weaker but still an
extremely dangerous category four hurricane... 

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from
Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to
Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres.  A Hurricane
Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from
Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A Tropical Storm
Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
Tropical storm conditions are also possible over portions of extreme
western Cuba.

 
Interests in the southern Gulf of Mexico and southern Texas should
monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located
near latitude 19.0 north...longitude  84.4 west or about  195
miles... 315 km...east-southeast of Cozumel Mexico and about  200
miles... 320 km...west of Grand Cayman.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.  On
the forecast track...the center of Emily is expected to reach the
Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Monday morning.

 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 145 mph...
235 km/hr...with higher gusts.  This makes Emily a category four
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Fluctuations in intensity
are common in major hurricanes...but little overall change in
strength is expected before Emily makes landfall.  Weakening is
then expected as the center of Emily crosses the Yucatan Peninsula.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.  NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported sustained
winds of 46 mph.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is  948 mb...27.99 inches.

 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 8-12 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Mexico.  Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous
waves...are possible along the south coasts of the Cayman Islands.

 
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the
Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.
Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over western Cuba.
While some outer rain bands may continue to affect the Cayman
Islands...in general rainfall should decrease across those islands
today.

 

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...19.0 N... 84.4 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

307 posted on 07/17/2005 10:51:35 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: shield

Here's a saved image from about 10 min ago:

http://ianlivingston.com/weather/images/2005/july/17_1746z_rad-canc.jpg


308 posted on 07/17/2005 10:54:42 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

Congrads, you called 4 days ago. I am very impressed.


309 posted on 07/17/2005 10:55:14 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: jpsb
Yesterdays eye at sunset.

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

310 posted on 07/17/2005 10:56:30 AM PDT by No Blue States
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To: No Blue States

She's ugly in black and white. No more pretty pictures?:')


311 posted on 07/17/2005 11:00:34 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: SouthTexas; Miztiki; CindyDawg

Paper? Not me!

I use my wooden backscratcher. :)

Welcome home, CD.
Sorry your return wasn't as safe as your trip. Be more careful and take your time, we've still got a couple of days...maybe.

I don't think S Texas is out of game, yet. Once Emily gets into the Gulf, we'll have a better clue.


312 posted on 07/17/2005 11:12:53 AM PDT by RGVTx
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To: RGVTx
I actually use a pencil. :)

We will be wet next week for sure. Dennis is still scattering rain through the east.

313 posted on 07/17/2005 11:15:13 AM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: nwctwx

Could you take a look at this link and tell me what I'm looking at?

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&modelrun=0&map=SURPRE&time=54&model=NAM&domain=US


314 posted on 07/17/2005 11:17:59 AM PDT by RGVTx
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To: Miztiki

A piece of paper? Sounds like a lot of work. I just eyeball it. :)


315 posted on 07/17/2005 11:31:49 AM PDT by nhoward14
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To: nwctwx

I just got in and haven't read the current posts .. it looks like Cuba certainly had to be impacted by Emily. Any word of the additional damage there? Prayers for those poor souls, hostage to demonic dictatorship .. and now to the devastation of this season.


316 posted on 07/17/2005 11:41:14 AM PDT by STARWISE
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To: RGVTx

That's the North American Model (NAM). Typically a good short range (48-60 hours or less) model... but, not one of the better ones when it comes to hurricane forecasting.

That map is an overlay of precip totals for a 3hour period, as well as an identifier of pressure. This shows the storm moving into Mexico... which you can see on the larger version from NCEP.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p06_054m.gif


317 posted on 07/17/2005 11:42:48 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: STARWISE
Outside some occasional squalls, it seems as if Cuba will fare ok from this one:


318 posted on 07/17/2005 11:45:29 AM PDT by nwctwx (Everything I need to know, I learned on the Threat Matrix)
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To: nwctwx

Thanks for the explanation and the link.


319 posted on 07/17/2005 11:51:07 AM PDT by RGVTx
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To: nwctwx

Miss Emily is looking quite ragged on IR and WV right now.


320 posted on 07/17/2005 11:55:06 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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