That's the North American Model (NAM). Typically a good short range (48-60 hours or less) model... but, not one of the better ones when it comes to hurricane forecasting.
That map is an overlay of precip totals for a 3hour period, as well as an identifier of pressure. This shows the storm moving into Mexico... which you can see on the larger version from NCEP.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p06_054m.gif
Thanks for the explanation and the link.
Miss Emily is looking quite ragged on IR and WV right now.
based on the latest, it seems to be tracking slightly to the noth of the 2nd forecast point on the sat loop, but certainly not north enough to bring this to Texas.
With the strengthening ridge, this likely won't hit Texas unless a trough sticks around longer than expected or one drops down we don't foresee. I see landfall a bit further north...20-30 miles...than the NHC track, but still in Mexico. Of course, until it hits the western Gulf, we won't really know just how much the ridge will impact her movement.
