Posted on 07/16/2005 1:33:53 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricanes Emily and Dennis are the strongest July storms in recorded history for the Atlantic hurricane basin...
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, 5P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Storm Floater IR Loop Little boxes at top of image: lat/lon, and Trop Fcst Pts--click 'em.
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Storm Floater Sat Both loop and latest image
Jamaica Weather Has a few still radar images
Cancun Radar Very Slow Load
Another Cancun Radar another Very Slow Load
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the NHC 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
Global Satellite Imagery Amazing view of the world (Broadband)
Water Vapor SatelliteAnother colorful loop for broadband
Central Florida Hurricane Center offers a variety of info
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure |
Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (weak) |
75 - 95 mph 65 - 82 kts 33 - 42 m/s |
> 28.94 in. Hg > 980.0 mb > 97.7 kPa |
4.0 - 5.0 ft. 1.2 - 1.5 m |
minimal damage to vegetation |
| 2 (moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts 43 - 49 m/s |
28.50 - 28.93 in. Hg 965.1 - 979.7 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
6.0 - 8.0 ft. 1.8 - 2.4 m |
moderate damage to houses |
| 3 (strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 113 kts 50 - 58 m/s |
27.91 - 28.49 in. Hg 945.1 - 964.8 mb 96.2 - 97.7 kPa |
9.0 - 12.0 ft. 2.7 - 3.7 m |
extensive damage to small buildings |
| 4 (very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 114 - 135 kts 59 - 69 m/s |
27.17 - 27.90 in. Hg 920.1 - 944.8 mb 91.7 - 94.2 kPa |
13.0 - 18.0 ft. 3.9 - 5.5 m |
extreme structural damage |
| 5 (devastating) |
> 155 mph > 135 kts > 70 m/s |
< 27.17 in Hg < 920.1 mb < 91.7 kPa |
> 18.0 ft > 5.5 m |
catastrophic building failures possible |
Guilty here also. I use an envelope. LOL
lol! I dont feel so bad now that other use the same method.
The eye of Emily is starting to show up on Cancun radar.
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...19.0 N... 84.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.
I'm having NO LUCK opening that link...can you help maybe posting a pic. Thanks. ;o)
Thanks. I'm fine.
...Reconaissance aircraft finds Emily slightly weaker but still an extremely dangerous category four hurricane...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal northward to Cabo Catoche...then westward and southward to Campeche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible over portions of extreme western Cuba.
Interests in the southern Gulf of Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 19.0 north...longitude 84.4 west or about 195 miles... 315 km...east-southeast of Cozumel Mexico and about 200 miles... 320 km...west of Grand Cayman.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Emily is expected to reach the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Monday morning.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 145 mph... 235 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Emily a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes...but little overall change in strength is expected before Emily makes landfall. Weakening is then expected as the center of Emily crosses the Yucatan Peninsula.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km. NOAA buoy 42056 recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 948 mb...27.99 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 8-12 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in Mexico. Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous waves...are possible along the south coasts of the Cayman Islands.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches. Lesser amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over western Cuba. While some outer rain bands may continue to affect the Cayman Islands...in general rainfall should decrease across those islands today.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...19.0 N... 84.4 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Beven
Here's a saved image from about 10 min ago:
http://ianlivingston.com/weather/images/2005/july/17_1746z_rad-canc.jpg
Congrads, you called 4 days ago. I am very impressed.
She's ugly in black and white. No more pretty pictures?:')
Paper? Not me!
I use my wooden backscratcher. :)
Welcome home, CD.
Sorry your return wasn't as safe as your trip. Be more careful and take your time, we've still got a couple of days...maybe.
I don't think S Texas is out of game, yet. Once Emily gets into the Gulf, we'll have a better clue.
We will be wet next week for sure. Dennis is still scattering rain through the east.
Could you take a look at this link and tell me what I'm looking at?
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&modelrun=0&map=SURPRE&time=54&model=NAM&domain=US
A piece of paper? Sounds like a lot of work. I just eyeball it. :)
I just got in and haven't read the current posts .. it looks like Cuba certainly had to be impacted by Emily. Any word of the additional damage there? Prayers for those poor souls, hostage to demonic dictatorship .. and now to the devastation of this season.
That's the North American Model (NAM). Typically a good short range (48-60 hours or less) model... but, not one of the better ones when it comes to hurricane forecasting.
That map is an overlay of precip totals for a 3hour period, as well as an identifier of pressure. This shows the storm moving into Mexico... which you can see on the larger version from NCEP.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p06_054m.gif
Thanks for the explanation and the link.
Miss Emily is looking quite ragged on IR and WV right now.
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