Posted on 05/05/2005 7:59:15 AM PDT by tellw
The Vote is under way!
What was Rush saying?
Okay, doing some investigating...
Crawley, in the SE, is still open. Labor won it with 49% in 2001, Tories got 32% and LD's got 13%.
Harlow, in the East, is still open. Labor won it with 48% in 2001, Tories got 35% and LD's got 13%.
Wirral West, in the NW, is still open. Labor won it with 47% in 2001, Tories got 37%, LD's got 16%
Skipton & Ripon, in Yorkshire & Humberside, is still open. Tories won it with 52% in 2001, LD's got 26%, Labor got 17%.
Hexham, in the NE, is still open. Tories won it with 45% in 2001, Labor got 39%, LD's got 15%.
St. Ives, in the Southwest, is still open. LD's won it with 52% in 2001, Tories got 31% and Labor got 13%.
Berwick-Upon-Tweed, in the NE, is still open. LD's won it with 51% in 2001, Tories got 28%, Labor got 18%.
Argyll & Bute, in Scotland, is still open. LD's won it with 33%, Tories got 24%, Labor got 23%.
That identifies 8 out of the 9 that are still open. I still can't find the 9th one (which should be held by Tories). Given the 2001 numbers, it's doubtful any of those 8 are going to switch tonight... though the Torie's best chance of squeezing out one more would probably be in Wirral West. Definite long shot even there though.
Qwinn
Hmmmm, which reminds me that Maggie was a grocer's daughter. Maybe that was what allowed people to vote for her, when they wouldn't vote for a toff. Perhaps the Tories should run more grocerymen and middle-class candidates like her. Although Tony Blair has the upper-class accent, and Tony Benn was a Wedgewood headed for the peerage before he became a Red.
It's been a good night for the Tories. I say a good night, but not a great night. What has appeared to have happened is that Labour has worn out its welcome.
Regards, Ivan
Ping bump. Nothing like getting to the party after it's over. ;)
Just as long as he didn't call me a moistened bint. Moistened bint is right out.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I have scimitars to lob.
Looks like they are not.
Looks like their projections for Labour were spot on. Plus, Michael Howard stands down as leader of the Tories.
The problem with adopting Thatcher's program is that she put it into place and got it done. Britain feared the unions in the early 1980s and would accept a strong hand against them; now they're neutered and starved, so tackling them further makes the Conservatives look irrelevant.
This is part and parcel of the real problem, which is that it's become impossible to impose Labour on their program and still represent a majority of Britons. Different story in the 1980s when Labour was a factional party and had no ambitions or rhetoric of serving the nation.
"What was Rush saying?"
Apparantly that the exit polls showed a Tory victory (this was about 5 hours before the exit polls were released. It was mentioned in this thread about, err, 40 pages ago!
"I would think that exit polls would be more accurate in the UK than the US.
Looks like they are not."
Explain?
"It's been a good night for the Tories. I say a good night, but not a great night. What has appeared to have happened is that Labour has worn out its welcome."
Totally agree. There were much worse scenarios that could have played out. On the other hand, there is little evidence that the Conservatives have attracted any new support overall. The main movement has been people voting anti-Labour which has been directly beneficial to the Lib Dems. The overall picture has resulted in a gain of seats to the Tories, but the share of the vote is hardly changed from the previous two elections which were viewed as disasters.
The task for the next leader is to use the greater Parliamentary base to develop a truly coherent and alternative programme to that which Labour offer, so that the electorate is actually offered a vivid choice next time.
Many thanks to all of you for helping us Americans understand the British elections. It was very interesting!
I'm glad the Tories did well, and share your dismay about the Lib Dems' gain in seats.
I agree by the next election the Iraq issue will not be an issue for the student vote that it currently is therefore in student areas where Lib Dems won they will migrate back to labour letting Conservatives in through the back door.
Good to see Blair won. The Conservative Party candidate wanted to appease the thug terrorists and pull out of Iraq. But, I understand Blair is hanging by a thread as it is.
Michael Howard came from a similar background as Margret Thatcher and only attended local Grammar school.
Indeed Ivan, I think Conservatives will win next time.
Thank you
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