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China Threatens U.S. Alliances [Background regarding Australia, Philippines,...]
The Heritage Foundation ^ | 22MAR05 | Dana Robert Dillon

Posted on 03/23/2005 9:10:43 PM PST by familyop

While the Bush administration continues to push and celebrate significant successes for democracy in the Middle East, China is on an opposing mission in Asia, where it continues to block the spread of democracy.

The most recent target of Chinese diplomatic pressure is Australia, America’s most reliable ally in the Pacific — or in the world, for that matter. Less than a week after China announced its new “Anti-Secession” law, by which Beijing claims the right to attack democratic Taiwan if it sees fit, a Chinese official demanded Australia amend its 50-year-old alliance with the United States.

Australians fought beside Americans in every war of the 20th century — from World War I through World War II, Korea, Vietnam and both Gulf wars. The war in Vietnam was just as controversial in Australia as it was in the United States, but the Aussies never abandoned their friends in America.

Australia has not flinched from our alliance in the 21st century. When the Indonesian military began its scorched-earth operations against East Timor in September 1999, Australia deployed a peacekeeping force there even as the much larger Indonesian army continued to conduct its punitive operations. Because of Australia’s immediate and strong response, the United States had to deploy only a handful of technical specialists to help out in East Timor.

Canberra invoked the alliance when the United States was attacked on Sept. 11, and Australia has participated in every campaign of the war on terrorism, including Iraq and Afghanistan. The war has not been without cost to Australia: In October 2002, Al Qaeda-linked terrorists blew up a nightclub in Bali, Indonesia, killing 92 Australians. Other Australians, soldiers and civilians alike, have lost their lives fighting alongside Americans in Iraq, Afghanistan and other battlefields of the war on terrorism.

Australia also shares with the United States a critical security interest in defending democracies in Asia. In August 2001, then-deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage visited Canberra and later commented that he could not imagine Australia not supporting the U.S. in any major conflict in Asia — even in Taiwan.

Ever since, Beijing has sought to drive a wedge between Canberra and Washington. On the very day China passed its so-called “anti-secession” law, the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s top Pacific policy official, Mr. He Yafei, told an interviewer from The Australian, "If there were any move by Australia and the U.S. in terms of that alliance [ANZUS] that is detrimental to peace and stability in Asia, then it [Australia] has to be very careful," adding that this was “especially so” in the case of Taiwan.

Beijing’s message was clear: Australia had better not help the United States to defend Taiwan — or else.

Australia’s foreign ministry immediately released a statement that Australia had no intentions of amending any facet of the treaty with America and that the alliance remains strong. But there is more going on here than indirect threats from old men in China’s foreign ministry. China is one of Australia’s largest trading partners with about $20 billion dollars a year trade both ways, and Beijing has suggested a bilateral free-trade agreement was possible to further sweeten the pot.

That China would challenge an American alliance as strong as our relationship with Australia sends a clear signal that the Chinese are ready to test the extent of their new and growing power in the region and, perhaps, the resolve of the United States and Australia. In the last four years, as China has emerged as the economic superpower of the Asia-Pacific region, it increasingly has sought opportunities to challenge American power in the region and replace the United States as the dominant diplomatic presence.

The Chinese also have begun to effectively translate their trade and investment clout into political influence. China now gives military assistance to the Philippines, another long-time ally of the United States, and props up dangerous, despicable regimes in North Korea, Burma and elsewhere.

It is right that the Bush administration take pride in its accomplishments toward democratization in the Middle East. But it needs to keep an eye on China, too. It has dropped the ball in the Far East in recent weeks. The Chinese have picked up that ball and begun to run with it.

Dana Dillon is a senior policy analyst in the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation.

First appeared in The Asian Wall Street Journal


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: australia; beijing; china; geopolitics; philippines; southeastasia; taiwan

1 posted on 03/23/2005 9:10:44 PM PST by familyop
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To: familyop
"...as China has emerged as the economic superpower of the Asia-Pacific region..."

A hollow economic superpower. What will be the push that crashes it?

2 posted on 03/23/2005 9:15:47 PM PST by etcetera (No man is entitled to the blessings of freedom, unless he be vigilant in its preservation.)
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To: All

BTW, a proposal (first offered by Madhav Das Nalapat) is floating ('till at least after the current diplomacy missions) for NAATO: the North America-Asia Treaty Organization, possibly including India, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Singapore and others.

Many of the money people understandably hope that we can all "just get along" and keep it flowing without a speed bump, but with China's obvious intent regarding Taiwan and tactical ocean routes,...


3 posted on 03/23/2005 9:17:06 PM PST by familyop (Essayons!)
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To: etcetera; Southack

Southack recently told us that China only provides about 10% of our GDP, if I remember correctly. Maybe southack's around to confirm or correct this comment on my part.


4 posted on 03/23/2005 9:18:47 PM PST by familyop (Essayons!)
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: familyop
"China is one of Australia’s largest trading partners with about $20 billion dollars a year trade both ways"

Petroleum.

7 posted on 03/23/2005 9:22:28 PM PST by endthematrix (Declare 2005 as the year the battle for freedom from tax slavery!)
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To: familyop

I read an article here some weeks ago that the Administration is working toward such an alliance. Currently, the Administration is working to strengthen ties with Inida, Japan, Australia. etc. In this vien, the Administration is working with Japan to find a way to amend their cinstitution so that their armed forces can become more participatory.


8 posted on 03/23/2005 9:23:08 PM PST by Army Air Corps (Half a league, half a league rode the MSM into the valley of obscurity)
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To: familyop

GDP stands for Gross DOMESTIC Product and is a measure of all goods and services produced domestically. Neither China nor any other nation provides any portion of our GDP.


9 posted on 03/23/2005 9:25:30 PM PST by Virginia Gentleman
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To: naturalman1975
Pinging...

There was also Operation Summer Pulse '04, the unprecedented military exercise (seven large carrier groups) around the Taiwan Strait (and further, to cover other countries) that sent a message to the Chinese leaders (and others) last summer. ...might be an interesting read for you and others here.

"US plans huge show of force in Pacific"
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1163792/posts
10 posted on 03/23/2005 9:32:07 PM PST by familyop (Essayons!)
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To: familyop

Maybe we should offer the "Middle Kingdom" one from column A and one from column B, and no, I'm not referring to cuisine.


11 posted on 03/23/2005 9:36:44 PM PST by PzLdr ("The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am" - Darth Vader)
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To: Virginia Gentleman; Southack
"GDP stands for Gross DOMESTIC Product and is a measure of all goods and services produced domestically. Neither China nor any other nation provides any portion of our GDP."

Okay, maybe it's better here to take the liberty of directly quoting Southack while providing the link. ...hope this is alright with Southack, as I do trust and enjoy comments from him.

"Chinese money and trade is less than one percent of the annual U.S. GDP. The Chinese-U.S. trade imbalance is $110 Billion per year; for the U.S., with a $12 Trillion economy, that $110 Billion is trivial."

From:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1367222/posts?page=32#32

Maybe he was referring to a ratio of incoming money from China to our GDP, which would make sense.
12 posted on 03/23/2005 9:45:37 PM PST by familyop (Essayons!)
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To: etcetera

...sorry, I did not remember that correctly. The comparison was about 1 percent instead of 10. See comment #12 for the quote.


13 posted on 03/23/2005 9:48:24 PM PST by familyop (Essayons!)
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To: Great Prophet Zarquon
>The Chinese will destroy themselves in a civil war within a
>generation. All we have to do is sit back and watch.

Come on, that is just wishful thinking. As China's military power rises they increasingly have the option of going to war with other countries in order to divert a civil war and you can bet that they will use this option if the need arises. There may very well be a civil war eventually but I can guarantee you that we are not going to be able to "sit back and watch": such a civil war will be the result of losing a war with an external enemy.

>>What will be the push that crashes it?

>50 million males who cannot get a date--because the
>government exterminated their wives, girlfriends, hookups,
>and hos.

Males are actually surprisingly adaptable and can get along pretty well without p****. This is not going to topple the PRC by any stretch of the imagination. This notion is just downright silly. I have read this same opinion from several people and can't quite fathom the reason for it. Perhaps it is wishful thinking based on some pro-life position. Or maybe just hoping against hope that the China problem will some how easily disappear. Or maybe America has really become so fixated on sex that our society really would topple if a large enough fraction of the male population was unable to "get some" for a six months. In any case, if you shared this idea with a Chinese they would just laugh and inside think how lucky they are that Americans are so naive.
14 posted on 03/23/2005 10:23:47 PM PST by Avenger
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To: Virginia Gentleman
Here's another bit of info from a quick search.

Morgan Stanley
Global Economic Forum
"The latest views of Morgan Stanley Economists"
Andy Xie

"Total profits from the China trade for corporate America could have amounted to US$60–80 billion, or 10–15% of total S&P 500 profits, last year."

Xie put the best face on that (only included S&P 500s) in the process of promoting business with China, BTW.

Southack was correct, in essence. All business profits included (not only S&P 500s), total profits from China are probably a very small part of those in our total market for 2004--a drop in the bucket. We've taken much larger bumps and kept running.

Can anyone who reads this find a figure for estimated total profits in all businesses in the USA for 2004?
15 posted on 03/23/2005 10:24:12 PM PST by familyop (Essayons!)
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To: familyop

I had a number of incountry well connected folks . . . in China

insist that this century, China will take over Australia lock, stock and barrel--by force.

That Australia has all that land. China has all those people--it's China's right--obligation, even to the Chinese nation, culture etc. To blazes with the Australians.

These folks were not kidding.

On can think of them as grandiose. There's many millions of Chinse who would go along with them in a flash.


16 posted on 03/23/2005 11:14:51 PM PST by Quix (HAVING A FORM of GODLINESS but DENYING IT'S POWER. 2 TIM 3:5)
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To: Great Prophet Zarquon
The Chinese will destroy themselves in a civil war within a generation. All we have to do is sit back and watch.

Anything can happen in 20 years -- you can't predict. Who would have predicted in 1900 that there would have been a collosal World War and that America would emerge as a near superpower? Who would have predicted in 1945 that smouldering, rubble-filled Germany and Japan would become economic powers by the 70s? Who would have predicted in 1975 that the Soviet Union would collapse in twenty years? No-one.

By 2025, Nigeria could be THE superpower for all we can predict.
17 posted on 03/24/2005 1:09:26 AM PST by Cronos (Never forget 9/11)
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To: Quix

The thing is -- if China tries to take over Australia, it will have to go through Indonesia -- and Indonesia already has a large population (4th most populous country in the world) and lesser room than China. Indonesia however, would be threatened by that other Asian giant -- India -- for control of Australia. In either case, Australia's future existence as an independent nation would be doubtful.


18 posted on 03/24/2005 1:14:31 AM PST by Cronos (Never forget 9/11)
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