Posted on 02/20/2005 4:50:48 PM PST by wagglebee
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Think scientists are close to being able to predict earthquakes? Think again, U.S. quake experts said on Sunday.
The magnitude 9 quake off the Indonesian island of Sumatra that triggered December's devastating tsunami was a potent reminder that while it is easy to say where big quakes will happen, pinning it down to a day, a week or even a decade has proved impossible, they said.
That quake apparently gave no warning whatsoever, researchers told a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Quake experts do not even agree how to measure a quake's magnitude to see if an experiment for predicting quake activity has worked, said Thomas Jordan of the Southern California Earthquake Center.
"Most seismologists, including myself, are pessimistic that in the next five years or 10 years that we will ever be able to come up with a silver bullet earthquake solution," Jordan told a news conference, but, "Never say never."
There are some suggestions that very low-frequency seismic activity might predict some quakes.
U.S. Geological Survey researchers have measured low-pitched rumbles from deep under California's San Andreas fault, about 15 miles southeast of Parkfield. They resemble measurements made at subduction zones in Japan and the Pacific Northwest. A subduction zone is where one of the Earth's tectonic plates is slipping under another and the Sumatra quake occurred at one such subduction zone.
"We just don't understand what those signals mean," Jordan said. "As best we can tell, there are no reliable short-term precursors to earthquakes."
David Applegate of the USGS said Parkfield, which has been covered with instruments for 20 years in the hope of catching a quake in the act, is providing useful information, but nothing that can be used to begin predicting a quake in a useful way.
More important will be finding out the highest risk areas so building codes can be brought up to date and emergency services told where the ground will shake the most, so they can respond quickly when a quake does occur.
Well, if it's any consolation, I can always predict when Mr. Gun is gonna erupt.
We're Doomed! Will it be an Ice Age or flooding due to melting ice? I forget.
After experiencing a semi-big earthquake (the Seattle 01 quake) with no warning, it dropped all other natural disasters down on my phobia list. At least with tornadoes, hurricanes, and even volcanoes, you usually get a tiny hint beforehand.
I'd include 'divorce' on that list too. ;-)
I would like to see the results of a widespread test of animals in active earthquake zones. Wearing monitors that would report certain behaviors or anatomical indicators would be very interesting, and put to rest or confirm something that has been suspected for some time.
If confirmed, the ability to develop an early warning system might be tied to the hyperactive animal behaviors in earthquake zones.
You might wanna rephrase that....the FReeper/Smutmind patrol is on duty this evening....
They happen when the rock layers can no longer hold back the motion of the plates.
Without any way of knowing the strength of the rock at the potential epicenter, or even knowing the force of the movement of the techtonic plate, how could we possibly predict WHEN it will happen?
The rock breaks, the overlying surface shifts, buildings fall down. It's pretty predictable WHERE, but not when.
LMAO!
I thought the elephants had the one in Indonesia.
but we rely so much on technology - (which is good) - that we ignore the simple - which maybe we shouldn't
But with all that strain energy building up somewhere, incredibly massive amounts of it, don't you think that someday, somewhere some incredibly smart guy will find a way to detect and measure it?
hehehehe..............can you predict if it is shooting blanks though???????
which maggots are you refering to......like me or Jim Robinson??????????
,,, mutton gun fun BUMP!
Now that is just down right friggin' rude....
No warning?.....whatsoever?.......how ignorant can Mother Nature be?......
We get no respect, I tell ya!
Except for the fruit cake from a neferoius Kalifungus institue of "higher learning" that just announced he has "indisputable PROOF" that we (all low life man kind, especially the USA, of course) is causing Global Warming.
"No need to debate the issue", he said, "we have the proof right here!"
So help me, I am borderline "hate" with these idiots.
Ok, Prof "I'm so Smart", 'splain to me the temp fluctuations here on Earth - BEFORE - man showed up.'
What's that you say? I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!!!!!!!
Talk about gas passers, sheesh.
LVM
Full moon coming up.
No....don't do it RW.....
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