Subgroup |
% of voters |
% Voting for Bush |
% Voting for Kerry |
Bush advantage |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
12 |
88 |
-76 |
Moderate |
40 |
37 |
63 |
-26 |
Conservative |
43 |
80 |
20 |
+60 |
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
37 |
7 |
93 |
-86 |
Independent |
24 |
48 |
52 |
-4 |
Republican |
39 |
95 |
5 |
+90 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bush won state in 2000 |
50 |
58 |
42 |
+16 |
Gore won state in 2000 |
50 |
45 |
55 |
-10 |
|
|
|
|
|
States won by fewer than six points in 2000 |
35 |
48 |
52 |
-4 |
Subgroup |
% of voters |
% Voting for Bush |
% Voting for Kerry |
Bush advantage |
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
46 |
56 |
44 |
+12 |
Women |
54 |
48 |
52 |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
White (non-Hispanic) |
87 |
57 |
43 |
+14 |
Nonwhite |
13 |
17 |
83 |
-66 |
Black |
8 |
7 |
93 |
-86 |
|
|
|
|
|
18 to 29 years old |
13 |
40 |
60 |
-20 |
30 to 49 years old |
38 |
57 |
43 |
+14 |
50 to 64 years old |
26 |
53 |
47 |
+6 |
65 years and older |
24 |
48 |
52 |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
East |
23 |
42 |
58 |
-16 |
Midwest |
23 |
52 |
48 |
+4 |
South |
33 |
57 |
43 |
+14 |
West |
22 |
52 |
48 |
+4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Urban |
28 |
44 |
56 |
-12 |
Suburban |
52 |
54 |
46 |
+8 |
Rural |
20 |
54 |
46 |
+8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Postgraduate education |
20 |
47 |
53 |
-6 |
College graduate (no postgrad) |
15 |
58 |
42 |
+16 |
Some college |
33 |
56 |
44 |
+12 |
High school or less education |
32 |
46 |
54 |
-8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Married |
58 |
60 |
40 |
+20 |
Not married |
42 |
40 |
60 |
-20 |
|
|
|
|
|
Married men |
30 |
61 |
39 |
+22 |
Unmarried men |
16 |
45 |
55 |
-10 |
Married women |
28 |
58 |
42 |
+16 |
Unmarried women |
26 |
36 |
64 |
-28 |
|
|
|
|
|
Union household |
14 |
33 |
67 |
-34 |
Non-union household |
86 |
55 |
45 |
+10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gun owner |
35 |
65 |
35 |
+30 |
Non-gun owner |
65 |
44 |
56 |
-12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Attend church weekly |
31 |
63 |
37 |
+26 |
Attend church nearly weekly/monthly |
29 |
55 |
45 |
+10 |
Seldom/Never attend church |
40 |
40 |
60 |
-20 |
|
|
|
|
|
Protestant |
53 |
62 |
38 |
+24 |
Catholic |
26 |
48 |
52 |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Military veteran |
20 |
60 |
40 |
+20 |
Gallup Ping
FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.
Gallop can take their 49-49 tie and stick it where the polls don't shine!
Fuuny, Kerry meets (or claims to meet) seven out of eight of these categories and that didn't help him.
I didn't even bothered to read the excuses. I followed all the polls, they varied a lot every 5 minutes, got me confused and didn't predict well. Doesn't matter how they justify themselves now.
Does anyone have posting rights at DU? If so the "college graduate" row, "some college" row and "high school or less" row need to be highlighted and the whole thing posted to show that the better educated prefer Bush over Kerry. This crushes the liberal theory that Bush supporters are stupid and uneducated.
These numbers are bullsh*t...just like Gallup's 90% break of undecideds for Kerry.
All of these numbers of course are subject to the same problems as all polls. So they may just be meaningless.
I kind of think that these days the Democratic Party has the super wealthy and some minorities, artsy and academic types, unions and a minority of the middle class.
Republicans have most small business owners, and a majority of the middle class.
I'd guess that the professional class is evenly divided, perhaps with a slight edge to the Dems?
Investors should be Republican, but I'm not sure about them.
Corporate America, I'd think would slightly favor Republicans.
Yup, yup, nope, yup, yup, nope, noneofyourbusiness, nope, and technically an Independent.
Well, that gives me at least four categories. My wife only fits into two categories, which explains her socialist vote. (She wasn't that way when I married her . . . )
TS
Why even bother with Gallop. They blew the election as bad or worse than Zogby. They had Kerry winning Florida by 3%. Jeez, they where only off by 8%. Forget them all.
I want to see how the numbers break down for active-duty military personnel.
White (non-Hispanic)
87
57
Nonwhite
................
13
17
Black
....
.............
..8
..7
7% of Blacks and 17% of Nonwhites voting for Bush? Yikes!
This is after Bush spent 4 years doing everything he could for Hispanics especially.
Another headline from the cover of "DUH" magazine!
USAToday/CSPAN and AP are now showing Bush's popular vote margin to be at 52 to 47%
Gallup really screwed the pooch with their final projection. They had been showing Bush with a consistent 5-6 point lead, then suddenly showed a tie in their last poll.
bump for reference
How come they just didn't give Kerry three points in their analysis like they did in their final poll?