Gallup: How Americans Voted

Gallup News Service ^ | November 5, 2004 | Jeffrey M. Jones

[RWR8189]

Bush owes victory to support from conservative-leaning groups

PRINCETON, NJ -- An analysis of Gallup's final pre-election poll shows that George W. Bush's victory over John Kerry was led by strong support among groups that tend to be politically conservative -- men, whites, Southerners, married voters, churchgoers, Protestants, gun owners, and veterans, as well as his natural Republican supporters. Bush did well in states he won in 2000, and his advantage in those states was larger than the advantage Kerry had in states that Al Gore won in 2000. Generally speaking, Bush's support by subgroup rose slightly in nearly all groups, but this was probably because there were no significant third-party candidates attracting support this year as Ralph Nader did in 2000. But Bush improved on his 2000 performance among conservatives, urban residents, and regular churchgoers beyond what can be attributed to the lack of a significant third-party candidate, while he did less well among younger voters. 

The analysis is based on Gallup's final pre-election poll of Oct. 29-31, which showed Bush at 49% and Kerry at 47% among likely voters. Those overall figures and the figures for the subgroups are adjusted to the final two-party candidate vote totals of 51.5% for Bush and 48.5% for Kerry.  

[dd5339]

Interesting statistics. 35% of gun owners voted for the #1 liberal in congress??? WTF?

Semper Fi

[Sam Cree]

I kind of think that these days the Democratic Party has the super wealthy and some minorities, artsy and academic types, unions and a minority of the middle class.

Republicans have most small business owners, and a majority of the middle class.

I'd guess that the professional class is evenly divided, perhaps with a slight edge to the Dems?

Investors should be Republican, but I'm not sure about them.

Corporate America, I'd think would slightly favor Republicans.

[eureka!]

Re#20 I don't trust that number. I don't trust most polls, for that matter...

[JanetteS]

Why are we still reading these things? Didn't this election prove that polls are too easily manipulated? The majority of them were a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing before the election and the post analysis are likely the same. There's apparently an entire industry out there devoted to convincing at least 51% of the country that, at the very least, their opinion doesn't matter and, at the most, that their vote doesn't count.

I say at let the polls die along side the MSM. This country is no longer governed at the top by those who watch the polls, why should the rest of us give them more power than they deserve?

[Tanniker Smith]

men, whites, Southerners, married voters, churchgoers, Protestants, gun owners, and veterans, as well as his natural Republican supporters

Yup, yup, nope, yup, yup, nope, noneofyourbusiness, nope, and technically an Independent.

Well, that gives me at least four categories. My wife only fits into two categories, which explains her socialist vote. (She wasn't that way when I married her . . . )

TS

[Ol' Sparky]

That's why I love it when a fool like Bill Maher and others arrogantly decry how stupid those are that vote Republican. The overwhelming majority of those with college degrees and an overwhelming number of the producers that earn over $30,000 a year voted for Bush and for Republicans.

It's really the bitter, angry losers of life, that believe they are victims, looking to government to solve their problems that generally support Democrats.

[DavidThomas]

20% of conservatives voted for Kerry?

[mmsturm]

Why even bother with Gallop. They blew the election as bad or worse than Zogby. They had Kerry winning Florida by 3%. Jeez, they where only off by 8%. Forget them all.

[alnick]

I want to see how the numbers break down for active-duty military personnel.

[Safetgiver]

I'm disenfrenchfying that 20%.

[Plutarch]

........................................% of Electorate…voting for Bush

White (non-Hispanic)…………87………57
Nonwhite……................……13………17
Black…....…….............……..8………..7

7% of Blacks and 17% of Nonwhites voting for Bush? Yikes!

This is after Bush spent 4 years doing everything he could for Hispanics especially.

[AFPhys]

Thanks for the post and ping about this elect analysis.
.

[Don Simmons]

"So is Pres. Bush an "over-educated" institutionalized liberal zombie? Are our medical doctors and lawyers? (ummm..nevermind the lawyers....)"

I didn't say that ALL post-grad people are losers!

The ones who voted for kerry damn sure are though! :-)

[Walkingfeather]

ping

[Dont Mention the War]

Bush owes victory to support from conservative-leaning groups

Another headline from the cover of "DUH" magazine!

[Ol' Sparky]

My guess is that many of religious or conservative voters that voted for Kerry are either black of hispanic. They have been brainwashed into believing the Republican party and Bush are racists.

[nathanbedford]

Great post

[ambrose]

USAToday/CSPAN and AP are now showing Bush's popular vote margin to be at 52 to 47%

Gallup really screwed the pooch with their final projection. They had been showing Bush with a consistent 5-6 point lead, then suddenly showed a tie in their last poll.

[JLGALT]

These number are very informing. The MSM always says there are about 3% more democrates than Republicans. But, these numbers show that Republicans actually outnumber democrates by 2%. Another media lie exposed!