Gallup: How Americans Voted

Gallup News Service ^ | November 5, 2004 | Jeffrey M. Jones

[RWR8189]

Bush owes victory to support from conservative-leaning groups

PRINCETON, NJ -- An analysis of Gallup's final pre-election poll shows that George W. Bush's victory over John Kerry was led by strong support among groups that tend to be politically conservative -- men, whites, Southerners, married voters, churchgoers, Protestants, gun owners, and veterans, as well as his natural Republican supporters. Bush did well in states he won in 2000, and his advantage in those states was larger than the advantage Kerry had in states that Al Gore won in 2000. Generally speaking, Bush's support by subgroup rose slightly in nearly all groups, but this was probably because there were no significant third-party candidates attracting support this year as Ralph Nader did in 2000. But Bush improved on his 2000 performance among conservatives, urban residents, and regular churchgoers beyond what can be attributed to the lack of a significant third-party candidate, while he did less well among younger voters. 

The analysis is based on Gallup's final pre-election poll of Oct. 29-31, which showed Bush at 49% and Kerry at 47% among likely voters. Those overall figures and the figures for the subgroups are adjusted to the final two-party candidate vote totals of 51.5% for Bush and 48.5% for Kerry.  

[Salvation]

PRESIDENT BUSH WON CATHOLIC VOTE

[Towed_Jumper]

Nathan... Many thanks...I also think Gallup may have unintentionally been describing the profile of an "enemy combatant" in a future Pres. Hillary Clinton adminstration...see you in Gitmo...assuming "they" can take us alive.

[Raven281]

The Hispanic vote went 44% for Bush. At least, that's what I've read.

[Plutarch]

The Hispanic vote went 44% for Bush. At least, that's what I've read.

Yeah, I've read that too, as an isolated factoid without attribution. Of course the Republicans are going to bander about a lot of post-victory happy talk, but I wonder if the truth is less sanguine. I don't see how a 44% Hispanic vote for Bush squares with this Gallup data, and I believe Gallup before any politial party's spin.

[B Knotts]

CNN says 44% of Hispanics voted for Bush:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

USA Today has 42%.

[Plutarch]

CNN says 44% of Hispanics voted for Bush.

Yeah, I see that. Then I see Gallup's data above. And I don't know how to reconcile the difference.

[B Knotts]

Hispanics aren't broken out in the above data.

Some Hispanics are white, some are non-white, and a few are black.

[Ciexyz]

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[Future Useless Eater]

bump for reference

[jwalsh07]

How come they just didn't give Kerry three points in their analysis like they did in their final poll?

[Polybius]

Southerners - Married a Sourthern girl (Chas, SC), does that count?

Only if you know the difference between a SOB and a SNOB without having to ask your wife.

[Towed_Jumper]

lol! My regrets...I don't know what either of those acronyms mean in a southern cultural context. I broke down and asked my wife and she doesn't know either! Her family goes back eight generations in South Carolina. You now have her concerned about this gap in her southern knowledge. She's wondering if this could be grounds for her having to resign her membership in the Daughters of The Confederacy (and maybe in the DAR as well).

Would you be able to help us both out and push back the frontiers of our knowledge?

[Polybius]

lol! My regrets...I don't know what either of those acronyms mean in a southern cultural context. I broke down and asked my wife and she doesn't know either! Her family goes back eight generations in South Carolina. You now have her concerned about this gap in her southern knowledge. She's wondering if this could be grounds for her having to resign her membership in the Daughters of The Confederacy (and maybe in the DAR as well). Would you be able to help us both out and push back the frontiers of our knowledge?

Well, it it strictly a Charleston cultural label rather than a generalized Southern one.

The old city of Charleston, SC is on a peninsula bordered by the Cooper River to the east and the Ashley River to the west.

The oldest and finest mansions, dating back to the 1700's, are at the tip of the peninsula south of Broad Street. In Charleston society, you might be somebody if your great-great-grandaddy built the family mansion south of Broad St. and you still live in it. These folks are called SOB's ( "South of Broad" ).

You can still earn some society points by owning a house as close to Broad Street as possible. You then qualify as a SNOB ( "Slightly North of Broad" ). ;-)

[stockpixx]

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