Posted on 11/05/2004 11:36:28 AM PST by RWR8189
Bush owes victory to support from conservative-leaning groups
PRINCETON, NJ -- An analysis of Gallup's final pre-election poll shows that George W. Bush's victory over John Kerry was led by strong support among groups that tend to be politically conservative -- men, whites, Southerners, married voters, churchgoers, Protestants, gun owners, and veterans, as well as his natural Republican supporters. Bush did well in states he won in 2000, and his advantage in those states was larger than the advantage Kerry had in states that Al Gore won in 2000. Generally speaking, Bush's support by subgroup rose slightly in nearly all groups, but this was probably because there were no significant third-party candidates attracting support this year as Ralph Nader did in 2000. But Bush improved on his 2000 performance among conservatives, urban residents, and regular churchgoers beyond what can be attributed to the lack of a significant third-party candidate, while he did less well among younger voters.
The analysis is based on Gallup's final pre-election poll of Oct. 29-31, which showed Bush at 49% and Kerry at 47% among likely voters. Those overall figures and the figures for the subgroups are adjusted to the final two-party candidate vote totals of 51.5% for Bush and 48.5% for Kerry.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Subgroup |
% of voters |
% Voting for Bush |
% Voting for Kerry |
Bush advantage |
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal |
17 |
12 |
88 |
-76 |
Moderate |
40 |
37 |
63 |
-26 |
Conservative |
43 |
80 |
20 |
+60 |
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
37 |
7 |
93 |
-86 |
Independent |
24 |
48 |
52 |
-4 |
Republican |
39 |
95 |
5 |
+90 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bush won state in 2000 |
50 |
58 |
42 |
+16 |
Gore won state in 2000 |
50 |
45 |
55 |
-10 |
|
|
|
|
|
States won by fewer than six points in 2000 |
35 |
48 |
52 |
-4 |
Subgroup |
% of voters |
% Voting for Bush |
% Voting for Kerry |
Bush advantage |
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
46 |
56 |
44 |
+12 |
Women |
54 |
48 |
52 |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
White (non-Hispanic) |
87 |
57 |
43 |
+14 |
Nonwhite |
13 |
17 |
83 |
-66 |
Black |
8 |
7 |
93 |
-86 |
|
|
|
|
|
18 to 29 years old |
13 |
40 |
60 |
-20 |
30 to 49 years old |
38 |
57 |
43 |
+14 |
50 to 64 years old |
26 |
53 |
47 |
+6 |
65 years and older |
24 |
48 |
52 |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
East |
23 |
42 |
58 |
-16 |
Midwest |
23 |
52 |
48 |
+4 |
South |
33 |
57 |
43 |
+14 |
West |
22 |
52 |
48 |
+4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Urban |
28 |
44 |
56 |
-12 |
Suburban |
52 |
54 |
46 |
+8 |
Rural |
20 |
54 |
46 |
+8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Postgraduate education |
20 |
47 |
53 |
-6 |
College graduate (no postgrad) |
15 |
58 |
42 |
+16 |
Some college |
33 |
56 |
44 |
+12 |
High school or less education |
32 |
46 |
54 |
-8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Married |
58 |
60 |
40 |
+20 |
Not married |
42 |
40 |
60 |
-20 |
|
|
|
|
|
Married men |
30 |
61 |
39 |
+22 |
Unmarried men |
16 |
45 |
55 |
-10 |
Married women |
28 |
58 |
42 |
+16 |
Unmarried women |
26 |
36 |
64 |
-28 |
|
|
|
|
|
Union household |
14 |
33 |
67 |
-34 |
Non-union household |
86 |
55 |
45 |
+10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gun owner |
35 |
65 |
35 |
+30 |
Non-gun owner |
65 |
44 |
56 |
-12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Attend church weekly |
31 |
63 |
37 |
+26 |
Attend church nearly weekly/monthly |
29 |
55 |
45 |
+10 |
Seldom/Never attend church |
40 |
40 |
60 |
-20 |
|
|
|
|
|
Protestant |
53 |
62 |
38 |
+24 |
Catholic |
26 |
48 |
52 |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Military veteran |
20 |
60 |
40 |
+20 |
Gallup Ping
FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.
ping
Gallop can take their 49-49 tie and stick it where the polls don't shine!
I am shocked, SHOCKED to see that after all the talk about how "stupid" we are, a higher percentage of college graduates voted for Bush than Kerry - GASP, how can that be?
Fuuny, Kerry meets (or claims to meet) seven out of eight of these categories and that didn't help him.
I didn't even bothered to read the excuses. I followed all the polls, they varied a lot every 5 minutes, got me confused and didn't predict well. Doesn't matter how they justify themselves now.
Interesting. After that horsehockey by Barone
on Foxs News on election night re why VA, NC and SC
could not be called for Bush w/ only a small
%age of precincts we see that those of us w/
grad school went for Kerry by ONLY 53:47.
So much for the horsepockey that all "smart"
people tend to go w/ Dems. Only 53%. The way
he made it sound was that the split was more
like 80:20. Well, maybe in academia and govt
but not where the smart people have to sing for their
supper as in the NJ pharma industry.
Barone needs a prescription for a 48-hr enema.
MV
Does anyone have posting rights at DU? If so the "college graduate" row, "some college" row and "high school or less" row need to be highlighted and the whole thing posted to show that the better educated prefer Bush over Kerry. This crushes the liberal theory that Bush supporters are stupid and uneducated.
These numbers are bullsh*t...just like Gallup's 90% break of undecideds for Kerry.
"An analysis of Gallup's final pre-election poll shows that George W. Bush's victory over John Kerry was led by strong support among groups that tend to be politically conservative --
men - Yep, that's me...
whites - Yep...since birth
Southerners - Married a Sourthern girl (Chas, SC), does that count?
married voters - Yep...25+ years
churchgoers - Yep...every week.
Protestants - Yep...Calvinist.
gun owners - Yep, own lots of them...
veterans - Yep, Army...82nd Airborne Division.
I (along with many fellow FReepers), are indeed the Left's worst nightmare...
All of these numbers of course are subject to the same problems as all polls. So they may just be meaningless.
marking...
Yeah - it's interesting that the "over-educated" (post-grad, institutionalized liberal zombies) and the "under-educated" (more susceptible to baseless rhetoric propaganda) are the ones who voted more for kerry.
The "moderately-educated" (read: folks with common sense and a good bit of book learnin') were the majority voters for President Bush.
Speaks volumes.
The non-white vote numbers look totally out of whack.
A 40 point marriag gap? I'm starting to wonder why liberals support gay marriage. If gays could marry, wouldn't they start voting Republican?
OK, now, how did Hanoi boy get 40% of the Vets vote?
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